Understanding HIV-1 subtype distribution and epidemiology can assist preventive measures and clinical decisions. Sequence variation may affect antiviral drug resistance development, disease progression, evolutionary rates and transmission routes.

Background: International travel plays a role in the spread of HIV-1 across Europe. It is, however, not known whether international travel is more important for spread of the epidemic as compared to endogenous infections within single countries. In this study, phylogenetic associations among HIV of newly diagnosed patients were determined across Europe. Results: Data came from the SPREAD programme which collects samples of newly diagnosed patients that are representative for national HIV epidemics. 4260 pol sequences from 25 European countries and Israel collected in 2002–2007 were included. We identified 457 clusters including 1330 persons (31.2% of all patients). The cluster size ranged between 2 and 28. A number of 987 patients (74.2%) were part of a cluster that consisted only of patients originating from the same country. In addition, 135 patients (10.2%) were in a cluster including only individuals from neighboring countries. Finally, 208 patients (15.6%) clustered with individuals from countries without a common border. Clustering with patients from the same country was less prevalent in patients being infected with B subtype (P-value <0.0001), in men who have sex with men (P-value <0.0001), and in recently infected patients (P-value =0.045). Conclusions: Our findings indicate that the transmission of HIV-1 in Europe is predominantly occurring between patients from the same country. This could have implications for HIV-1 transmission prevention programmes. Because infections through travelling between countries is not frequently observed it is important to have good surveillance of the national HIV-1 epidemics.

Background: The effect of drug resistance transmission on disease progression in the newly infected patient is not well understood. Major drug resistance mutations severely impair viral fitness in a drug free environment, and therefore are expected to revert quickly. Compensatory mutations, often already polymorphic in wild-type viruses, do not tend to revert after transmission. While compensatory mutations increase fitness during treatment, their presence may also modulate viral fitness and virulence in absence of therapy and major resistance mutations. We previously designed a modeling technique that quantifies genotypic footprints of in vivo treatment selective pressure, including both drug resistance mutations and polymorphic compensatory mutations, through the quantitative description of a fitness landscape from virus genetic sequences. Results: Genotypic correlates of viral load and CD4 cell count were evaluated in subtype B sequences from recently diagnosed treatment-naive patients enrolled in the SPREAD programme. The association of surveillance drug resistance mutations, reported compensatory mutations and fitness estimated from drug selective pressure fitness landscapes with baseline viral load and CD4 cell count was evaluated using regression techniques. Protease genotypic variability estimated to increase fitness during treatment was associated with higher viral load and lower CD4 cell counts also in treatment-naive patients, which could primarily be attributed to well-known compensatory mutations at highly polymorphic positions. By contrast, treatment-related mutations in reverse transcriptase could not explain viral load or CD4 cell count variability. Conclusions: These results suggest that polymorphic compensatory mutations in protease, reported to be selected during treatment, may improve the replicative capacity of HIV-1 even in absence of drug selective pressure or major resistance mutations. The presence of this polymorphic variation may either reflect a history of drug selective pressure, i.e. transmission from a treated patient, or merely be a result of diversity in wild-type virus. Our findings suggest that transmitted drug resistance has the potential to contribute to faster disease progression in the newly infected host and to shape the HIV-1 epidemic at a population level.

(See the editorial commentary by Mayer and Mimiaga, on pages 1371–1373 .) Background. Centralized data collection and analytic tools facilitate tracing HIV transmission trends at the patient-population level with increasing resolution, complementing behavioral studies while avoiding sampling biases. By several measures, the rate of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Israel increased in the past several years more rapidly than was expected. We describe features of the data that connect this increase to behavioral changes. Methods. We retrospectively analyzed data from the national HIV reference laboratory and the national HIV and sexually transmitted infections registries. We examined changes in selected epidemiologic and clinical parameters and in the pattern of drug-resistant virus transmission among MSM in Israel. In particular, virus isolates from 296 MSM (23.8% of all MSM who received a diagnosis) were genotyped, drug-resistance conferring mutations were characterized, and phylogenetic trees were constructed. Results. Compared with earlier years, during 2007–2009 MSM were more often infected with drug-resistant virus before treatment initiation, were coinfected with syphilis, and received a diagnosis during acute retroviral syndrome. Phylogenetic analysis suggested frequent transmission of drug-resistant HIV by drug-treated individuals to >1 partner. Secondary transmission of resistant virus by drug-naive patients is also consistent with the phylogenetic patterns. In addition, non-B HIV subtypes began to appear among MSM. Conclusions. Together, our findings suggest that the sexual behavior of MSM, both HIV-infected and uninfected, has become riskier, contributing to the number of those seeking early clarification of status, to syphilis comorbidity, and to the spread of drug resistance. These findings call for action by public health planners and community-based organizations aimed at increasing awareness of the risks, bringing a change in attitude and establishing safe sex norms.

HIV in Israel started with a subtype-B epidemic among men who have sex with men, followed in the 1980s and 1990s by introductions of subtype C from Ethiopia (predominantly acquired by heterosexual transmission) and subtype A from the former Soviet Union (FSU, most often acquired by intravenous drug use). The epidemic matured over the last 15 years without additional large influx of exogenous infections. Between 2005 and 2013 the number of infected men who have sex with men (MSM) increased 2.9-fold, compared to 1.6-fold and 1.3-fold for intravenous drug users (IVDU) and Ethiopian-origin residents. Understanding contemporary spread is essential for effective public health planning. We analyzed demographic and virologic data from 1,427 HIV-infected individuals diagnosed with HIV-I during 1998–2012. HIV phylogenies were reconstructed with maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods. Subtype-B viruses, but not A or C, demonstrated a striking number of large clusters with common ancestors having posterior probability ≥0.95, including some suggesting presence of transmission networks. Transmitted drug resistance was highest in subtype B (13%). MSM represented a frequent risk factor in cross-ethnic transmission, demonstrated by the presence of Israeli-born with non-B virus infections and FSU immigrants with non-A subtypes. Reconstructed phylogenetic trees demonstrated substantial grouping in subtype B, but not in non-MSM subtype-A or in subtype-C, reflecting differences in transmission dynamics linked to HIV transmission categories. Cross-ethnic spread occurred through multiple independent introductions, with MSM playing a prevalent role in the transmission of the virus. Such data provide a baseline to track epidemic trends and will be useful in informing and quantifying efforts to reduce HIV transmission.

Analysis of potentially different impact of Lopinavir/Ritonavir (LPV/r) on non-B subtypes is confounded by dissimilarities in the conditions existing in different countries. We retrospectively compared its impact on populations infected with subtypes B and C in Israel, where patients infected with different subtypes receive the same treatment. Clinical and demographic data were reported by physicians. Resistance was tested after treatment failure. Statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS. 607 LPV/r treated patients (365 male) were included. 139 had HIV subtype B, 391 C, and 77 other subtypes. At study end 429 (71%) were receiving LPV/r. No significant differences in PI treatment history and in median viral-load (VL) at treatment initiation and termination existed between subtypes. MSM discontinued LPV/r more often than others even when the virologic outcome was good (p = 0.001). VL was below detection level in 81% of patients for whom LPV/r was first PI and in 67% when it was second (P = 0.001). Median VL decrease from baseline was 1.9±0.1 logs and was not significantly associated with subtype. Median CD4 increase was: 162 and 92cells/µl, respectively, for patients receiving LPV/r as first and second PI (P = 0.001), and 175 and 98, respectively, for subtypes B and C (P<0.001). Only 52 (22%) of 237 patients genotyped while under LPV/r were fully resistant to the drug; 12(5%) were partially resistant. In48%, population sequencing did not reveal resistance to any drug notwithstanding the virologic failure. No difference was found in the rates of resistance development between B and C (p = 0.16). Treatment with LPV/r appeared efficient and tolerable in both subtypes, B and C, but CD4 recovery was significantly better in virologically suppressed subtype-B patients. In both subtypes, LPV/r was more beneficial when given as first PI. Mostly, reasons other than resistance development caused discontinuation of treatment.