The new Scientific Decade 2013–2022 of IAHS, entitled “Panta Rhei—Everything Flows”, is dedicated to research activities on change in hydrology and society. The purpose of Panta Rhei is to reach an improved interpretation of the processes governing the water cycle by focusing on their changing dynamics in connection with rapidly changing human systems. The practical aim is to improve our capability to make predictions of water resources dynamics to support sustainable societal development in a changing environment. The concept implies a focus on hydrological systems as a changing interface between environment and society, whose dynamics are essential to determine water security, human safety and development, and to set priorities for environmental management. The Scientific Decade 2013–2022 will devise innovative theoretical blueprints for the representation of processes including change and will focus on advanced monitoring and data analysis techniques. Interdisciplinarity will be sought by increased efforts to connect with the socio-economic sciences and geosciences in general. This paper presents a summary of the Science Plan of Panta Rhei, its targets, research questions and expected outcomes. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Montanari, A., Young, G., Savenije, H.H.G., Hughes, D., Wagener, T., Ren, L.L., Koutsoyiannis, D., Cudennec, C., Toth, E., Grimaldi, S., Blöschl, G., Sivapalan, M., Beven, K., Gupta, H., Hipsey, M., Schaefli, B., Arheimer, B., Boegh, E., Schymanski, S.J., Di Baldassarre, G., Yu, B., Hubert, P., Huang, Y., Schumann, A., Post, D., Srinivasan, V., Harman, C., Thompson, S., Rogger, M., Viglione, A., McMillan, H., Characklis, G., Pang, Z., and Belyaev, V., 2013. “Panta Rhei—Everything Flows”: Change in hydrology and society—The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013–2022. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 58 (6) 1256–1275.

The exposure of the Earth’s surface to the energetic input of rainfall is one of the key factors controlling water erosion. While water erosion is identified as the most serious cause of soil degradation globally, global patterns of rainfall erosivity remain poorly quantified and estimates have large uncertainties. This hampers the implementation of effective soil degradation mitigation and restoration strategies. Quantifying rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires high temporal resolution(<30 min) and high fidelity rainfall recordings. We present the results of an extensive global data collection effort whereby we estimated rainfall erosivity for 3,625 stations covering 63 countries. This first ever Global Rainfall Erosivity Database was used to develop a global erosivity map at 30 arc-seconds(~1 km) based on a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR). Globally, the mean rainfall erosivity was estimated to be 2,190 MJ mm ha⁻¹h⁻¹yr⁻¹, with the highest values in South America and the Caribbean countries, Central east Africa and South east Asia. The lowest values are mainly found in Canada, the Russian Federation, Northern Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East. The tropical climate zone has the highest mean rainfall erosivity followed by the temperate whereas the lowest mean was estimated in the cold climate zone.

Increases in concurrent climate extremes in different parts of the world threaten the ecosystem and our society. However, spatial patterns of these extremes and their past and future changes remain unclear. Here, we develop a statistical framework to test for spatial dependence and show widespread dependence of temperature and precipitation extremes in observations and model simulations, with more frequent than expected concurrence of extremes around the world. Historical anthropogenic forcing has strengthened the concurrence of temperature extremes over 56% of 946 global paired regions, particularly in the tropics, but has not yet significantly affected concurrent precipitation extremes during 1901–2020. The future high-emissions pathway of SSP585 will substantially amplify the concurrence strength, intensity, and spatial extent for both temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over tropical and boreal regions, while the mitigation pathway of SSP126 can ameliorate the increase in concurrent climate extremes for these high-risk regions. Our findings will inform adaptation strategies to alleviate the impact of future climate extremes.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is dominated by transpiration (T) in the terrestrial water cycle. However, continuous measurement of transpiration is still difficult, and the effect of vegetation on ET partitioning is unclear. The concept of underlying water use efficiency (uWUE) was used to develop a new method for ET partitioning by assuming that the maximum, or the potential uWUE is related to T while the averaged or apparent uWUE is related to ET. T/ET was thus estimated as the ratio of the apparent over the potential uWUE using half‐hourly flux data from 17 AmeriFlux sites. The estimated potential uWUE was shown to be essentially constant for 14 of the 17 sites, and was broadly consistent with the uWUE evaluated at the leaf scale. The annual T/ET was the highest for croplands, i.e., 0.69 for corn and 0.62 for soybean, followed by grasslands (0.60) and evergreen needle leaf forests (0.56), and was the lowest for deciduous broadleaf forests (0.52). The enhanced vegetation index (EVI) was shown to be significantly correlated with T/ET and could explain about 75% of the variation in T/ET among the 71 site‐years. The coefficients of determination between EVI and T/ET were 0.84 and 0.82 for corn and soybean, respectively, and 0.77 for deciduous broadleaf forests and grasslands, but only 0.37 for evergreen needle leaf forests. This ET partitioning method is sound in principle and simple to apply in practice, and would enhance the value and role of global FLUXNET in estimating T/ET variations and monitoring ecosystem dynamics.

Water use efficiency is a critical index for describing carbon‐water coupling in terrestrial ecosystems. However, the nonlinear effect of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on carbon‐water coupling has not been fully considered. To improve the relationship between gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) at the subdaily time scale, we propose a new underlying water use efficiency (uWUE = GPP · VPD^0.5/ET) and a hysteresis model to minimize time lags among GPP, ET, and VPD. Half‐hourly data were used to validate uWUE for seven vegetation types from 42 AmeriFlux sites. Correlation analysis shows that the GPP · VPD^0.5 and ET relationship (r = 0.844) is better than that between GPP · VPD and ET (r = 0.802). The hysteresis model supports the GPP · VPD^0.5 and ET relationship. As uWUE is related to CO₂ concentration, its use can improve estimates of GPP and ET and help understand the effect of CO₂ fertilization on carbon storage and water loss.