Dissolved oxygen is an influential factor of aquatic ecosystem health. Future predictions of oxygen deficits are paramount for maintaining water quality. Oxygen demands depend greatly on a waterbody’s attributes. A large sediment–water interface relative to volume means sediment oxygen demand has greater influence in shallow systems. In shallow, ice-covered waterbodies the potential for winter anoxia is high. Water quality models offer two options for modelling sediment oxygen demand: a zero-order constant rate, or a sediment diagenesis model. The constant rate is unrepresentative of a real system, yet a diagenesis model is difficult to parameterise and calibrate without data. We use the water quality model CE-QUAL-W2 to increase the complexity of a zero-order sediment compartment with limited data. We model summer and winter conditions individually to capture decay rates under-ice. Using a semi-automated calibration method, we find an annual pattern in sediment oxygen demand that follows the trend of chlorophyll-a concentrations in a shallow, eutrophic Prairie reservoir. We use chlorophyll-a as a proxy for estimation of summer oxygen demand and winter decay. We show that winter sediment oxygen demand is dependent on the previous summer’s maximum chlorophyll-a concentrations.

Water quality models are an emerging tool in water management to understand and inform decisions related to eutrophication. This study tested flow scenario effects on the water quality of Buffalo Pound Lake—a eutrophic reservoir supplying water for approximately 25% of Saskatchewan’s population. The model CE-QUAL-W2 was applied to assess the impact of inter-basin water diversion after the impounded lake received high inflows from local runoff. Three water diversion scenarios were tested: continuous flow, immediate release after nutrient loading increased, and a timed release initiated when water levels returned to normal operating range. Each scenario was tested at three different transfer flow rates. The transfers had a dilution effect but did not affect the timing of the nutrient peaks in the upstream portion of the lake. In the lake’s downstream section, nutrients peaked at similar concentrations as the base model, but peaks arrived earlier in the season and attenuated rapidly. Results showed greater variation among scenarios in wet years compared to dry years. Dependent on the timing and quantity of water transferred, some but not all water quality parameters are predicted to improve along with the water diversion flows over the period tested. The results suggest that it is optimal to transfer water while local watershed runoff is minimal.

The water bodies of the Saskatchewan Prairies suffer multiple stressors, and demand for water is expected to increase. Water quality models can help evaluate water management strategies and risks such as climate change. This study assesses the impact of interbasin water transfers on the water quality of a strategic, eutrophic prairie reservoir that receives poor-quality watershed run-off. A one-dimensional WASP model was used to estimate nutrient transformations in the transfers along a 97 km river channel. The WASP model was then loosely coupled to a two-dimensional CE-QUAL-W2 model of the downstream receiving reservoir. Output from the WASP model was manually transformed into boundary conditions for the CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir model. This method improves on an earlier attempt to estimate nutrient transformations in the transfers using linear regression. Results from the loosely coupled models suggest Buffalo Pound Lake would respond well to the interbasin transfers. The number of threshold exceedances decreased for all modeled water quality variables. Nutrient concentrations were most influenced in the open water season following spring freshet. Any additional reduction of threshold exceedances during winter was minimal in comparison. These results are interesting from a management perspective as increased transfers under winter operations risk ice damage to the river channel.

The prairie waterbodies face a future of warming temperatures and growing water demands. There are increasing concerns about how water quality will be affected. Water quality models are an effective tool for examining scenarios of future conditions that cannot be measured directly. This study combined WASP and CE-QUAL-W2 to investigate the potential impacts of changing flow management and climate change in the Canadian Prairies. The two models were loosely coupled to simulate a strategically managed river-reservoir network. Climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensemble were used to create future climate scenarios. Interbasin water transfers were then simulated through the coupled models to determine if any negative impacts from climate change on water quality could be offset through flow management. Climate change impacts in the river stretch were minimised due to the rapid flow travel time along the channel. The interbasin water transfers had a greater influence on water quality concentrations in the river. This result was limited by the uncertain hydro-climatic future of the contributing watershed. Climate change impacts in the downstream reservoir were far more apparent. Evaporative losses increased approximately 150% from the base model by the 2080–2100 period. Chlorophyll-a concentrations increased an average of 53% in this same period based on monthly mean percentage change. Reservoir water quality was improved after adding the interbasin water transfers. Results indicated that flow management would have a positive impact on water quality in the reservoir in the face of future climate change.