High-resolution simulations are conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to evaluate the sensitivity of wake effects and power production from two wind farm parameterizations [the commonly used Fitch scheme and the more recently developed Explicit Wake Parameterization (EWP)] to the resolution at which the model is applied. The simulations are conducted for a 9-month period for a domain encompassing much of the U.S. Midwest. The two horizontal resolutions considered are 4 km × 4 km and 2 km × 2 km grid cells, and the two vertical discretizations employ either 41 or 57 vertical layers (with the latter having double the number in the lowest 1 km). Higher wind speeds are observed close to the wind turbine hub height when a larger number of vertical layers are employed (12 in the lowest 200 m vs 6), which contributes to higher power production from both wind farm schemes. Differences in gross capacity factors for wind turbine power production from the two wind farm parameterizations and with resolution are most strongly manifest under stable conditions (i.e., at night). The spatial extent of wind farm wakes when defined as the area affected by velocity deficits near to wind turbine hub heights in excess of 2% of the simulation without wind turbines is considerably larger in simulations with the Fitch scheme. This spatial extent is generally reduced by increasing the horizontal resolution and/or increasing the number of vertical levels. These results have important applications to projections of expected annual energy production from new wind turbine arrays constructed in the wind shadow from existing wind farms.

The interannual variability (IAV) of expected annual energy production (AEP) from proposed wind farms plays a key role in dictating project financing. IAV in preconstruction projected AEP and the difference in 50th and 90th percentile (P50 and P90) AEP derive in part from variability in wind climates. However, the magnitude of IAV in wind speeds at or close to wind turbine hub heights is poorly defined and may be overestimated by assuming annual mean wind speeds are Gaussian distributed with a standard deviation (σ) of 6 %, as is widely applied within the wind energy industry. There is a need for improved understanding of the long-term wind resource and the IAV therein in order to generate more robust predictions of the financial value of a wind energy project. Long-term simulations of wind speeds near typical wind turbine hub heights over the eastern USA indicate median gross capacity factors (computed using 10 min wind speeds close to wind turbine hub heights and the power curve of the most common wind turbine deployed in the region) that are in good agreement with values derived from operational wind farms. The IAV of annual mean wind speeds at or near typical wind turbine hub heights in these simulations and AEP computed using the power curve of the most commonly deployed wind turbine is lower than is implied by assuming σ = 6 %. Indeed, rather than 9 out of 10 years exhibiting AEP within 0.9 and 1.1 times the long-term mean AEP as implied by assuming a Gaussian distribution with σ of 6 %, the results presented herein indicate that in over 90 % of the area in the eastern USA that currently has operating wind turbines, simulated AEP lies within 0.94 and 1.06 of the long-term average. Further, the IAV of estimated AEP is not substantially larger than IAV in mean wind speeds. These results indicate it may be appropriate to reduce the IAV applied to preconstruction AEP estimates to account for variability in wind climates, which would decrease the cost of capital for wind farm developments.

Output from 6 months of high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are analyzed to characterize local low-level jets (LLJs) over Iowa for winter and spring in the contemporary climate. Low-level jets affect rotor plane aerodynamic loading, turbine structural loading and turbine performance, and thus accurate characterization and identification are pertinent. Analyses using a detection algorithm wherein the wind speed above and below the jet maximum must be below 80 % of the jet wind speed within a vertical window of approximately 20–530 m a.g.l. (above ground level) indicate the presence of an LLJ in at least one of the 14 700 4 km×4 km grid cells over Iowa on 98 % of nights. Nocturnal LLJs are most frequently associated with stable stratification and low turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence are more frequent during the winter months. The spatiotemporal mean LLJ maximum (jet core) wind speed is 9.55 m s⁻¹, and the mean height is 182 m. Locations of high LLJ frequency and duration across the state are seasonally varying, with a mean duration of 3.5 h. The highest frequency occurs in the topographically complex northwest of the state in winter and in the flatter northeast of the state in spring. Sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to the (i) LLJ definition and (ii) vertical resolution at which the WRF output is sampled is examined. LLJ definitions commonly used in the literature are considered in the first sensitivity analysis. These sensitivity analyses indicate that LLJ characteristics are highly variable with definition. Use of different definitions identifies both different frequencies of LLJs and different LLJ events. Further, when the model output is down-sampled to lower vertical resolution, the mean jet core wind speed height decreases, but spatial distributions of regions of high frequency and duration are conserved. Implementation of a polynomial interpolation to extrapolate down-sampled output to full-resolution results in reduced sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to down-sampling.

Continued growth of wind turbine physical dimensions is examined in terms of the implications for wind speed, power and shear across the rotor plane. High-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to generate statistics of wind speed profiles for scenarios of current and future wind turbines. The nine-month simulations, focused on the eastern Central Plains, show that the power scales broadly as expected with the increase in rotor diameter (D) and wind speeds at hub-height (H). Increasing wind turbine dimensions from current values (approximately H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to those of the new International Energy Agency reference wind turbine (H = 150 m, D = 240 m), the power across the rotor plane increases 7.1 times. The mean domain-wide wind shear exponent (α) decreases from 0.21 (H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to 0.19 for the largest wind turbine scenario considered (H = 168 m, D = 248 m) and the frequency of extreme positive shear (α > 0.2) declines from 48% to 38% of 10-min periods. Thus, deployment of larger wind turbines potentially yields considerable net benefits for both the wind resource and reductions in fatigue loading related to vertical shear.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has been extensively used for wind energy applications, and current releases include a scheme that can be applied to examine the effects of wind turbine arrays on the atmospheric flow and electricity generation from wind turbines. Herein we present a high-resolution simulation using two different wind farm parameterizations: 1) the “Fitch” parameterization that is included in WRF releases and 2) the recently developed Explicit Wake Parameterization (EWP) scheme. We compare the schemes using a single yearlong simulation for a domain centered on the highest density of current turbine deployments in the contiguous United States (Iowa). Pairwise analyses are applied to diagnose the downstream wake effects and impact of wind turbine arrays on near-surface climate conditions. On average, use of the EWP scheme results in small-magnitude wake effects within wind farm arrays and faster recovery of full WT array wakes. This in turn leads to smaller impacts on near-surface climate variables and reduced array–array interactions, which at a systemwide scale lead to summertime capacity factors (i.e., the electrical power produced relative to nameplate installed capacity) that are 2%–3% higher than those from the more commonly applied Fitch parameterization. It is currently not possible to make recommendations with regard to which wind farm parameterization exhibits higher fidelity or to draw inferences with regard to whether the relative performance may vary with prevailing climate conditions and/or wind turbine deployment configuration. However, the sensitivities documented herein to the wind farm parameterization are of sufficient magnitude to potentially influence wind turbine array siting decisions. Thus, our research findings imply high value in undertaking combined long-term high-fidelity observational studies in support of model validation and verification.

Paired simulations are conducted using the WRF model applied at convection permitting resolution in order to determine the impact of wind turbines on the local to mesoscale climate. Using actual wind turbine (WT) locations and a model of the effect of the WT rotor on the flow field it is shown that while the presence of WT changes wind speeds and near‐surface air temperature in 4 km grid cells in which WT are located, the impact at larger scales on near‐surface air temperature, specific humidity, the fluxes of latent and sensible heat, boundary layer heights and precipitation is not significant in any season other than summer. During summer, the maximum pairwise difference in grid cell mean temperatures is 0.5 K and the maximum increase in near‐surface specific humidity is 0.4 g kg^‐1. However, a spatial average of the mean seasonal perturbation of air temperature by WT gives a net impact of < 0.1 K. Precipitation probability is also not significantly impacted in any season other than summer. In the summer the presence of WT is associated with a small decrease in precipitation probability and a decrease in season total precipitation of ‐2.6%. The finding of minor magnitude, but significant impacts, during summer should be used to contextualize results of substantial climate impacts from WT arrays deployed in the US Central Plains based on short‐term simulations conducted for the summer season.