Lumbar disc bulging or herniation (LDBH) is one of the major causes of spinal stenosis and related nerve compression, and its severity is the major determinant for spine surgery. MRI of the spine is the most important diagnostic tool for evaluating the need for surgical intervention in patients with LDBH. However, MRI utilization is limited by its low accessibility. Spinal X-rays can rapidly provide information on the bony structure of the patient. Our study aimed to identify the factors associated with LDBH, including disc height, and establish a clinical diagnostic tool to support its diagnosis based on lumbar X-ray findings. In this study, a total of 458 patients were used for analysis and 13 clinical and imaging variables were collected. Five machine-learning (ML) methods, including LASSO regression, MARS, decision tree, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting, were applied and integrated to identify important variables for predicting LDBH from lumbar spine X-rays. The results showed L4-5 posterior disc height, age, and L1-2 anterior disc height to be the top predictors, and a decision tree algorithm was constructed to support clinical decision-making. Our study highlights the potential of ML-based decision tools for surgeons and emphasizes the importance of L1-2 disc height in relation to LDBH. Future research will expand on these findings to develop a more comprehensive decision-supporting model.