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Graduated in physics (Technical University of Lisbon) with DPhil from University of Oxford. Lecturer in solar energy at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon and researcher at Instituto Dom Luiz, since 2011.
Energy and transport must lead the transition to a low-carbon economy, weaning their dependence on fossil fuels via massive renewable generation and electrification of transport. A major challenge is the power system imbalance between generation and demand due to the higher fraction of non-dispatchable renewable generation such as solar photovoltaic or wind. Electric mobility will lean heavily on the power system but may contribute to mitigate the imbalance problem. This work focuses precisely on the impact of different models for future road mobility in a decarbonized power system, ranking the merits of each solution. The models considered are plug-in, plug-in and catenaries, plug-in and hydrogen, and battery swapping. We show that battery swapping, the least studied model so far, is superior to the other three in all semi-quantitative criteria of merit. We conclude our analysis with implications for energy policy and examples of public policies that could boost the adoption of this model, which has huge implications both for the mobility industry and for power systems.
A.M. Vallera; P.M. Nunes; M.C. Brito. Why we need battery swapping technology. Energy Policy 2021, 157, 112481 .
AMA StyleA.M. Vallera, P.M. Nunes, M.C. Brito. Why we need battery swapping technology. Energy Policy. 2021; 157 ():112481.
Chicago/Turabian StyleA.M. Vallera; P.M. Nunes; M.C. Brito. 2021. "Why we need battery swapping technology." Energy Policy 157, no. : 112481.
Collective photovoltaic self-consumption is an extension of traditional, single user self-consumption, whose objective is to maximize the share of local generated energy that is consumed at the generation point with multiple consumers sharing a photovoltaic system. With demand-side management, consumption profiles can be adapted to generation profiles which can be posed as an optimization problem. In this work, the problem of scheduling uninterruptible shiftable devices is addressed from a multiagent perspective considering two different approaches. On one hand, a centralized architecture assumes that a single agent has the capacity to solve all agents problems. On the other, a new partially distributed architecture is proposed to solve the same problem by distributing decision-making among agents using an heuristic algorithm with a virtual dynamic tariff as coordination mechanism. A computational experiment is set up in order to test increasing numbers of agents. Results show that the centralized approach, although finding the optimal solution, shows running times that are two orders of magnitude greater than the decentralized method, which is able to find high quality solutions at lower time cost but with increased monetary cost. This trade-off becomes more relevant as the number of agents increase.
G. Pontes Luz; M.C. Brito; J.M.C. Sousa; S.M. Vieira. Coordinating shiftable loads for collective photovoltaic self-consumption: A multi-agent approach. Energy 2021, 229, 120573 .
AMA StyleG. Pontes Luz, M.C. Brito, J.M.C. Sousa, S.M. Vieira. Coordinating shiftable loads for collective photovoltaic self-consumption: A multi-agent approach. Energy. 2021; 229 ():120573.
Chicago/Turabian StyleG. Pontes Luz; M.C. Brito; J.M.C. Sousa; S.M. Vieira. 2021. "Coordinating shiftable loads for collective photovoltaic self-consumption: A multi-agent approach." Energy 229, no. : 120573.
Integrating solar photovoltaics in electric vehicles can reduce operating costs and extend the driving range. It is particularly appropriate for urban mobility due to the relatively short typical daily travels of urban vehicles. However, shadowing cast by buildings will reduce the solar irradiation falling on the vehicle, reducing its PV generation. This study assesses the solar potential of onboard solar for roads and urban parking using data in a geographical information system for the case study of Lisbon. Results show that annual losses due to shadowing may reach 25% for roads and over 50% for urban parking spaces. Nevertheless, despite these losses, the annual solar extended range for onboard solar vehicles is between 10 and 18 km/day/kWp, thus significantly reducing charging needs.
Miguel Centeno Brito; Teresa Santos; Filipe Moura; David Pera; Jorge Rocha. Urban solar potential for vehicle integrated photovoltaics. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 2021, 94, 102810 .
AMA StyleMiguel Centeno Brito, Teresa Santos, Filipe Moura, David Pera, Jorge Rocha. Urban solar potential for vehicle integrated photovoltaics. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2021; 94 ():102810.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel Centeno Brito; Teresa Santos; Filipe Moura; David Pera; Jorge Rocha. 2021. "Urban solar potential for vehicle integrated photovoltaics." Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 94, no. : 102810.
The characteristic declination is the declination for the day on which the daily extraterrestrial irradiation on a horizontal surface is identical to its monthly average value. It was introduced as a means to determine monthly average values of irradiation. Herein, its potential usefulness to reduce computing time when mapping solar potential in complex urban areas is explored. This simplification reduces computing demand by a factor of 30× while introducing a +5% to +8% error in the annual monthly irradiation on a typical urban neighborhood for low and midlatitudes. Errors are larger (+10% to +12%) for high latitudes. The magnitude of the errors is comparable to other relevant uncertainties in solar mapping tools, associated with solar radiation modeling, the layout and details of the buildings, or the photovoltaic (PV) energy yield models.
Miguel Centeno Brito; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Sara Freitas. Characteristic Declination—A Useful Concept for Accelerating 3D Solar Potential Calculations. Energy Technology 2021, 9, 1 .
AMA StyleMiguel Centeno Brito, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Sara Freitas. Characteristic Declination—A Useful Concept for Accelerating 3D Solar Potential Calculations. Energy Technology. 2021; 9 (3):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel Centeno Brito; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Sara Freitas. 2021. "Characteristic Declination—A Useful Concept for Accelerating 3D Solar Potential Calculations." Energy Technology 9, no. 3: 1.
This work addresses the potential impact of large-scale deployment of photovoltaics in the urban environment on the local micro-climate. A one- and two-dimensional steady-state irradiance balance model was developed to estimate the impact of changing the effective albedo of rooftops and facades fully covered with photovoltaic modules. Results show that, albeit small, with current PV conversion efficiencies, photovoltaics on rooftops are expected to have a heating effect on the urban environment. The effect of facades depends strongly on the reflective properties of the surroundings (e.g., road albedo) but it is always small (below 4%), and, therefore, photovoltaics ought not to be considered a mitigation strategy for urban heat island.
Miguel Centeno Brito. Assessing the Impact of Photovoltaics on Rooftops and Facades in the Urban Micro-Climate. Energies 2020, 13, 2717 .
AMA StyleMiguel Centeno Brito. Assessing the Impact of Photovoltaics on Rooftops and Facades in the Urban Micro-Climate. Energies. 2020; 13 (11):2717.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel Centeno Brito. 2020. "Assessing the Impact of Photovoltaics on Rooftops and Facades in the Urban Micro-Climate." Energies 13, no. 11: 2717.
The commercial sector in Nigeria has been greatly hampered due to the poor availability of reliable electricity. In a 2014 World Bank report, nearly half of the firms doing business in Nigeria identified electricity as a major constraint, with over a quarter of them listing electricity as their biggest obstacle. The business losses due to electrical outages have been significant, with losses averaging about 16% of annual sales. The lack of access to reliable electricity is one of the biggest challenges to economic growth in Nigeria. This paper proposes a means of powering the commercial sector in Nigeria using urban swarm electrification. It outlines a conceptual framework for using a distributed network made up of grid-connected home solar PV systems as a viable option for providing the commercial sector with more reliable access to electricity. It further addresses the policy implications for the commercial sector with the enablement of more electrification options, implications that include strong economic impact, as well as the expansion and creation of new industries.
Abisoye Babajide; Miguel Centeno Brito. Powering the Commercial Sector in Nigeria Using Urban Swarm Solar Electrification. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4053 .
AMA StyleAbisoye Babajide, Miguel Centeno Brito. Powering the Commercial Sector in Nigeria Using Urban Swarm Solar Electrification. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (10):4053.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAbisoye Babajide; Miguel Centeno Brito. 2020. "Powering the Commercial Sector in Nigeria Using Urban Swarm Solar Electrification." Sustainability 12, no. 10: 4053.
The future residential energy demand is expected to be significantly affected by increasing electrification rates and climate change. This study uses a Monte Carlo-based approach and an ensemble of climate models to address potential changes in electricity demand in this sector. The whole Portuguese residential building stock in 2050 is used as a case study. It is performed a sensitivity analysis for the retrofitting and new construction, floor area of new buildings, electrification of domestic hot water and cooking and, finally, adoption of heat pumps for space heating and cooling. Results show a potential increase of 5 to 60% of the total electricity consumption in the sector. Space heating is expected to decrease by 33% while space cooling shows a possible 20-fold increase. The electrification of domestic hot water and the development of housing stock characteristics are the factors with the largest impact on the overall electricity consumption changes.
Raquel Figueiredo; Pedro Nunes; Marta Oliveira Panão; Miguel Brito. Country residential building stock electricity demand in future climate – Portuguese case study. Energy and Buildings 2019, 209, 109694 .
AMA StyleRaquel Figueiredo, Pedro Nunes, Marta Oliveira Panão, Miguel Brito. Country residential building stock electricity demand in future climate – Portuguese case study. Energy and Buildings. 2019; 209 ():109694.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRaquel Figueiredo; Pedro Nunes; Marta Oliveira Panão; Miguel Brito. 2019. "Country residential building stock electricity demand in future climate – Portuguese case study." Energy and Buildings 209, no. : 109694.
Buildings in urban environments offer large areas available for the deployment of solar energy technologies. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are often considered for installation on rooftops, with façades usually being disregarded due to their non-optimal inclination. However, PV façades not only convey a cleaner image to buildings but may also act as optimizers of distributed generation. The contribution of differently oriented and tilted PV surfaces varies seasonally and depends on the urban layout, therefore the aggregation of rooftop and façade PV potential in a neighbourhood or a city might satisfy a relevant fraction of its combined electricity consumption even at off-peak production hours. The optimization of PV systems towards load-matching is crucial for the success of future solar communities. This review aims to provide an overview on the rooftop versus façade PV paradigm in the context of future cities. The advantages of façades are highlighted along with methods to estimate their potential, and innovative technological approaches for their implementation are discussed.
Sara Freitas; Miguel Centeno Brito. Solar façades for future cities. Renewable Energy Focus 2019, 31, 73 -79.
AMA StyleSara Freitas, Miguel Centeno Brito. Solar façades for future cities. Renewable Energy Focus. 2019; 31 ():73-79.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSara Freitas; Miguel Centeno Brito. 2019. "Solar façades for future cities." Renewable Energy Focus 31, no. : 73-79.
Spatio-temporal solar forecasting based on statistical models seldom integrates wind information. An AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model was tested using global horizontal irradiation records from a set of pyranometers deployed in Oahu, Hawaii, USA, where northeasterly winds are predominant. When irradiance is forecasted 10-s ahead, interesting forecast skills (up to 30.8%) can be achieved when a site has upwind neighbors available. However, when forecast skill is mapped as a function of wind direction at 850 hPa (from an ERA 5 reanalysis), negative skill values can be observed when nondominant winds occur. A wind regime-based approach is proposed, where different ARX models are built for different wind direction intervals, which substantially improves the forecasting accuracy for the underperforming wind directions. When the regime definition also takes into account wind speed, the ARX model detects spatial patterns for faster winds, with several nondominant directions achieving skill scores higher than 20%. Replacing the wind reanalysis by historical forecasts from ERA 5 reduced the overall skill by less than 0.1%.Spatio-temporal solar forecasting based on statistical models seldom integrates wind information. An AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model was tested using global horizontal irradiation records from a set of pyranometers deployed in Oahu, Hawaii, USA, where northeasterly winds are predominant. When irradiance is forecasted 10-s ahead, interesting forecast skills (up to 30.8%) can be achieved when a site has upwind neighbors available. However, when forecast skill is mapped as a function of wind direction at 850 hPa (from an ERA 5 reanalysis), negative skill values can be observed when nondominant winds occur. A wind regime-based approach is proposed, where different ARX models are built for different wind direction intervals, which substantially improves the forecasting accuracy for the underperforming wind directions. When the regime definition also takes into account wind speed, the ARX model detects spatial patterns for faster winds, with several nondominant directions achieving skill scores ...
R. Amaro E Silva; S. E. Haupt; M. C. Brito. A regime-based approach for integrating wind information in spatio-temporal solar forecasting models. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 2019, 11, 056102 .
AMA StyleR. Amaro E Silva, S. E. Haupt, M. C. Brito. A regime-based approach for integrating wind information in spatio-temporal solar forecasting models. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy. 2019; 11 (5):056102.
Chicago/Turabian StyleR. Amaro E Silva; S. E. Haupt; M. C. Brito. 2019. "A regime-based approach for integrating wind information in spatio-temporal solar forecasting models." Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 11, no. 5: 056102.
The estimation of photovoltaic (PV) efficiency depends on the solar cell temperature, which varies with ambient temperature and solar irradiation. When only daily averages are available, for instance, when assessing solar potential in a future climate, the standard procedure leads to a non-negligible error in the estimation of PV generation, as it disregards the fact that changes in efficiency at low irradiance are less relevant than changes in efficiency at high irradiance. A correction factor based on a sinusoidal model for solar irradiation and temperature is proposed and tested for locations with diverse latitudes and climates. The results show that this approach features random and bias errors below 2%, at least three times smaller than the standard averaging method, thus validating its application for estimation of PV generation.The estimation of photovoltaic (PV) efficiency depends on the solar cell temperature, which varies with ambient temperature and solar irradiation. When only daily averages are available, for instance, when assessing solar potential in a future climate, the standard procedure leads to a non-negligible error in the estimation of PV generation, as it disregards the fact that changes in efficiency at low irradiance are less relevant than changes in efficiency at high irradiance. A correction factor based on a sinusoidal model for solar irradiation and temperature is proposed and tested for locations with diverse latitudes and climates. The results show that this approach features random and bias errors below 2%, at least three times smaller than the standard averaging method, thus validating its application for estimation of PV generation.
Miguel C. Brito; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva. A sinusoidal model to assess PV generation from daily irradiation data. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 2019, 11, 053502 .
AMA StyleMiguel C. Brito, Rodrigo Amaro E Silva. A sinusoidal model to assess PV generation from daily irradiation data. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy. 2019; 11 (5):053502.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel C. Brito; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva. 2019. "A sinusoidal model to assess PV generation from daily irradiation data." Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 11, no. 5: 053502.
Using deployed PV generation as inputs for spatio-temporal forecasting approaches has the potential for fast and scalable very short-term PV forecasting in the urban environment but one has to consider the effect of their tilt and orientation on the forecasting accuracy. To address this issue, tilted irradiance data sets were simulated using state of the art solutions on a horizontal irradiance data set from a pyranometer network deployed in Oahu, Hawaii, and used as inputs to train a 10-s ahead linear ARX model. Results showed that the mismatch in tilt/orientation degrades the forecast skill, justified by the difference in the diffuse fraction of each surface and, thus, how each reacts to changes in cloud cover. From 4000 simulated sets, it was shown that using information from more sites led to better forecasts and made the model performance less sensitive to the PV modules’ tilt and orientation. Forecast skill showed to be quite sensitive to the tilt and orientation ensemble when the inputs consisted of only rooftop or façade systems (between 18.1–29.6% and 8.2–19.4%, respectively). Forecasting a rooftop system with vertically tilted neighbors lead to considerably lower skill values (9.8–16.2%) and benefitted when all shared the same orientation. On the other hand, forecasting a vertically tilted system with rooftop neighbors had a lower impact (9.2–14.7%) and benefitted from diversely oriented neighbors.
R. Amaro e Silva; Miguel Brito. Spatio-temporal PV forecasting sensitivity to modules’ tilt and orientation. Applied Energy 2019, 255, 113807 .
AMA StyleR. Amaro e Silva, Miguel Brito. Spatio-temporal PV forecasting sensitivity to modules’ tilt and orientation. Applied Energy. 2019; 255 ():113807.
Chicago/Turabian StyleR. Amaro e Silva; Miguel Brito. 2019. "Spatio-temporal PV forecasting sensitivity to modules’ tilt and orientation." Applied Energy 255, no. : 113807.
The assessment of solar potential in the urban environment is an important instrument for policy decision regarding renewable energy deployment in the city. This paper presents an experimentally validated 3D solar potential model for rooftops and facades from LIDAR data considering anisotropic diffuse irradiation. The data visualization is rendered in the ArcGIS platform using CityEngine to automatically generate 3D models from 2D geometries. The model is validated against summer and winter measurements of photovoltaic performance on a facade. A case study for two densely packed urban areas in Lisbon, Portugal, are presented. Facades are shown to increase the solar potential by 10 to 15%.
Miguel Centeno Brito; Paula Redweik; Cristina Catita; Sara Freitas; Miguel Santos. 3D Solar Potential in the Urban Environment: A Case Study in Lisbon. Energies 2019, 12, 3457 .
AMA StyleMiguel Centeno Brito, Paula Redweik, Cristina Catita, Sara Freitas, Miguel Santos. 3D Solar Potential in the Urban Environment: A Case Study in Lisbon. Energies. 2019; 12 (18):3457.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel Centeno Brito; Paula Redweik; Cristina Catita; Sara Freitas; Miguel Santos. 2019. "3D Solar Potential in the Urban Environment: A Case Study in Lisbon." Energies 12, no. 18: 3457.
Quasi-steady-state methods to calculate monthly heating and cooling energy needs require the quantification of solar heat gains through windows. The presence of external obstacles, such as natural topography, other buildings, overhangs, or side fins, may significantly decrease solar gains. Simplified methods to evaluate shading on windows throughout the year use the shading correction factor concept, i.e., the ratio between the surface solar irradiation in the presence of external obstacles and in their absence. This paper presents a photographic method using a low-cost fisheye lens attached to a smartphone to quantify the shading correction factor. It is based on image processing, solar geometry, and climate databases and does not require 3D building design or angle measurement of external obstacles. Both beam and diffuse correction factors are calculated monthly. The model correctly predicts the real Sun’s position in the photos and the expected monthly shading of a South window with an overhang. For the diffuse correction factor, errors up to 11% are obtained when compared to the analytical solution of a window with a large overhang. Standard tabulated values for windows with multiple obstructions are conservative when compared to those of the photographic method. The tabulated approach considers the effect of various obstacles shading even when overlapping occurs, which possibly explains the difference between methods.
Marta Oliveira Panão; Rafael F.C. Carreira; Miguel C. Brito. Determining the shading correction factor using a smartphone camera with a fisheye lens. Solar Energy 2019, 190, 596 -607.
AMA StyleMarta Oliveira Panão, Rafael F.C. Carreira, Miguel C. Brito. Determining the shading correction factor using a smartphone camera with a fisheye lens. Solar Energy. 2019; 190 ():596-607.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarta Oliveira Panão; Rafael F.C. Carreira; Miguel C. Brito. 2019. "Determining the shading correction factor using a smartphone camera with a fisheye lens." Solar Energy 190, no. : 596-607.
Miguel Centeno Brito; José Mário Pó; Daniela Pereira; Fernando Simões; Roberto Rodriguez; José Carlos Amador. Passive solar tracker based in the differential thermal expansion of vertical strips. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 2019, 11, 043701 .
AMA StyleMiguel Centeno Brito, José Mário Pó, Daniela Pereira, Fernando Simões, Roberto Rodriguez, José Carlos Amador. Passive solar tracker based in the differential thermal expansion of vertical strips. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy. 2019; 11 (4):043701.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel Centeno Brito; José Mário Pó; Daniela Pereira; Fernando Simões; Roberto Rodriguez; José Carlos Amador. 2019. "Passive solar tracker based in the differential thermal expansion of vertical strips." Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 11, no. 4: 043701.
The recent rise of distributed generation and self-consumption, together with the unbundling of the electricity supply chain, sprout the opportunity for innovative energy policies that increasingly place end-users as active agents of the system and democratize access to the energy markets. Such is the case of the emerging concepts of virtual metering, peer-to-peer energy trading, shared generation and local network charges, hereby grouped under the umbrella policy genre “Prosumer Aggregation Policies”. This paper sets out to describe the fundamental mechanisms within these concepts, to categorize them and their policy impacts, in order to guide regulators, decision-makers and the research community through the key steps and considerations involved in the design of Prosumer Aggregation Policies. Based on a comprehensive assessment of country experiences and a showcase of real business models and pilot projects, it is argued that prosumer aggregation policies significantly enhance prosumers’ drivers and improve the potential market of distributed generation and traditional self-consumption policies, ultimately providing policy access to all end-users regardless of possessing the appropriate site or resource conditions. They also address challenges for grid operators regarding grid integration and market integration of distributed generation, helping to minimize their impact in grid management.
Ricardo Moura; Miguel Centeno Brito. Prosumer aggregation policies, country experience and business models. Energy Policy 2019, 132, 820 -830.
AMA StyleRicardo Moura, Miguel Centeno Brito. Prosumer aggregation policies, country experience and business models. Energy Policy. 2019; 132 ():820-830.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRicardo Moura; Miguel Centeno Brito. 2019. "Prosumer aggregation policies, country experience and business models." Energy Policy 132, no. : 820-830.
Reference rules-of-thumb advise equator-facing orientations and slopes near the site's latitude as the optimal conditions for photovoltaic (PV) systems to maximize annual solar electricity production. However, if the electricity consumption profile is considered, this layout will most likely increase net load variance on the electricity grid at sunrise and sunset, which ought to be avoided. Making use of a variety of orientations and inclinations can help to minimize this impact, especially in cities where plentiful area of diversely oriented façades and rooftops is particularly relevant for broadening the peak of PV production throughout the day. Providing electricity not only around solar noon but also in the morning and late afternoon, when demand from residential buildings increases, helps to maximize self-consumption/-sufficiency and reduces costs for end-users and utilities. Until recently, due to high installation costs, there was little interest in this non-optimal PV systems configurations. In the last five years, however, the paradigm started to shift, triggered by the growing interest from municipalities that seek energy transition through currently more affordable PV systems and, on the other hand, by the duck-curve phenomena reported in pioneering “solar cities”. This paper reviews studies that address the use of non-optimal azimuths and tilts to better match utility- and distributed-scale demand and supply.
S. Freitas; M.C. Brito. Non-cumulative only solar photovoltaics for electricity load-matching. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2019, 109, 271 -283.
AMA StyleS. Freitas, M.C. Brito. Non-cumulative only solar photovoltaics for electricity load-matching. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2019; 109 ():271-283.
Chicago/Turabian StyleS. Freitas; M.C. Brito. 2019. "Non-cumulative only solar photovoltaics for electricity load-matching." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 109, no. : 271-283.
The decarbonization of the Portuguese electricity system, currently around 50% renewable-based, is undergoing with the commitment to reach 60% of renewable electricity share by 2020. Because of this, the phase-out of the two remaining coal-fired power plants has been receiving close attention, as they currently contribute to about one-fifth of the total electricity generation and two-thirds of the CO2 emissions in the power sector. This work assesses the impact of eliminating coal-fired generation from the Portuguese electricity system without replacing it, and explores a cleaner supply alternative achievable before 2025. Coal phase-out without substitution results in slightly increased CO2 emissions for the atmosphere if one assumes that the required additional imports are of carbon-intensive electricity, leading to the need of adding clean power capacity to the system. It is shown that coal plants could be replaced by about 8 GW of photovoltaics if accompanied by a modest increase in the already existing hydro pump capacity. In this case, the renewable electricity share increases to 77%, and carbon footprint decreases by 56%.
Raquel Figueiredo; Pedro Nunes; Mónica Meireles; Mara Madaleno; Miguel C. Brito. Replacing coal-fired power plants by photovoltaics in the Portuguese electricity system. Journal of Cleaner Production 2019, 222, 129 -142.
AMA StyleRaquel Figueiredo, Pedro Nunes, Mónica Meireles, Mara Madaleno, Miguel C. Brito. Replacing coal-fired power plants by photovoltaics in the Portuguese electricity system. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2019; 222 ():129-142.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRaquel Figueiredo; Pedro Nunes; Mónica Meireles; Mara Madaleno; Miguel C. Brito. 2019. "Replacing coal-fired power plants by photovoltaics in the Portuguese electricity system." Journal of Cleaner Production 222, no. : 129-142.
Solar energy forecasting is an active research problem and a key issue to increase the competitiveness of solar power plants in the energy market. However, using meteorological, production, or irradiance data from the past is not enough to produce accurate forecasts. This article aims to integrate a prediction algorithm (Smart Persistence), irradiance, and past production data, using a state-of-the-art machine learning technique (Random Forests). Three years of data from six solar PV modules at Faro (Portugal) are analyzed. A set of features that combines past data, predictions, averages, and variances is proposed for training and validation. The experimental results show that using Smart Persistence as a Machine Learning input greatly improves the accuracy of short-term forecasts, achieving an NRMSE of 0.25 on the best panels at short horizons and 0.33 on a 6 h horizon.
Javier Huertas Tato; Miguel Centeno Brito. Using Smart Persistence and Random Forests to Predict Photovoltaic Energy Production. Energies 2018, 12, 100 .
AMA StyleJavier Huertas Tato, Miguel Centeno Brito. Using Smart Persistence and Random Forests to Predict Photovoltaic Energy Production. Energies. 2018; 12 (1):100.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJavier Huertas Tato; Miguel Centeno Brito. 2018. "Using Smart Persistence and Random Forests to Predict Photovoltaic Energy Production." Energies 12, no. 1: 100.
The transport sector, accountable for a large share of climate change and pollution, is on the verge of changing over the coming decades. To lead it through the best path, carefully designed public transport policies are needed, since they have several important secondary effects on the society and economy. However, their assessment is not straightforward, as the transport sector comprises millions of actors with heterogeneous behavior. This study estimates the impacts of the promotion of market- and command-and-control based pro-environmental transport policies on the mobility, environment and economy. For the case study of Portugal, several sets of policies until 2050 were tested by means of a ‘what-if’ type policy analysis using the ASTRA-EC model, and the results were compared with a business-as-usual scenario. The results show that the policies are effective at shifting passenger travelling to public transportation, but care must be taken when promoting the market deployment of clean vehicles or penalizing those less clean, due to a rebound effect on car usage. The largest CO2 emissions reductions (26%) are related to the application of policies promoting the deployment of electric vehicles, suggesting that this is an essential measure to curb emissions. It was also observed that cleaner vehicles complying with post-Euro 6 emissions standard are important at reducing pollutants (by up to −27%). This happens at the same time as economy is improved by 0.5–1.1% and employment by 0.22%, i.e., tackling the issue of transportation is synergic with the economy. Despite the encouraging results in relative terms, absolute transport emissions in Portugal in 2050 increase by at least 15% in relation to 1990, far short from the environmental objectives to significantly cut emissions.
Pedro Nunes; Fábio Pinheiro; Miguel C. Brito. The effects of environmental transport policies on the environment, economy and employment in Portugal. Journal of Cleaner Production 2018, 213, 428 -439.
AMA StylePedro Nunes, Fábio Pinheiro, Miguel C. Brito. The effects of environmental transport policies on the environment, economy and employment in Portugal. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2018; 213 ():428-439.
Chicago/Turabian StylePedro Nunes; Fábio Pinheiro; Miguel C. Brito. 2018. "The effects of environmental transport policies on the environment, economy and employment in Portugal." Journal of Cleaner Production 213, no. : 428-439.
The mismatch between photovoltaic generation and residential load leads to relative modest rates of self-consumption of solar electricity unless expensive storage solutions are locally available. One alternative to batteries is the aggregation of demand of different prosumers, as the collective load diagram might be better adapted to the solar resource. This hypothesis is tested for empirical data from 18 dwellings and 3 small businesses in the city of Lisbon, Portugal. Results show that a relatively low number of dwellings and a local small shop with a PV system without any storage will reach 90% self-consumption rates at a much lower cost than an individually owned PV system with 1 kWh/kWp storage system.
Vera Reis; Rita H. Almeida; José A. Silva; Miguel C. Brito. Demand aggregation for photovoltaic self-consumption. Energy Reports 2018, 5, 54 -61.
AMA StyleVera Reis, Rita H. Almeida, José A. Silva, Miguel C. Brito. Demand aggregation for photovoltaic self-consumption. Energy Reports. 2018; 5 ():54-61.
Chicago/Turabian StyleVera Reis; Rita H. Almeida; José A. Silva; Miguel C. Brito. 2018. "Demand aggregation for photovoltaic self-consumption." Energy Reports 5, no. : 54-61.