Following the appearance of urban shrinkage in Western countries, scholars have taken note of increasing amounts of urban shrinkage with significant regional characteristics in China in recent years. Focusing on the Yellow River Basin, this study comprehensively measured prefecture-level and county-level city shrinkage based on China’s fifth, sixth and seventh national census data. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal patterns, types and modes of urban shrinkage were analyzed, and the factors influencing urban shrinkage were explored using a multiple linear regression model and a sorting model. The study results show that the number of shrinking cities and the shrinking degree significantly increased at the prefecture and county levels in the last 20 years. The identified shrinking cities are concentrated in the upper and middle reaches of the river basin, spatially configured around major cities and along the high-speed railway line. The regional pattern shows a typical “core–periphery” characteristic. Peripheral shrinkage is the main mode in which cities shrink. The strength and speed of economic development and industrial transformation positively affect urban shrinkage; the ageing degree, high-speed railway opening and other factors negatively affect urban shrinkage.

China’s rural areas face population loss and expanded residential land in the context of rapid urbanization. The increasing hollowing of villages leads to extensive land use, making it necessary to optimize and consolidate rural settlements immediately. Therefore, how to choose an appropriate development model for rural settlements is at issue. This article builds a theoretical development model for rural settlements based on their primary development conditions and spatial patterns. It determines the development model according to the classification matrix formed by interweaving different elements in each dimension. Finally, it demonstrates the model through a case study on Pingyin County, China. The empirical findings for Pingyin County are as follows. (1) The scale of rural settlements increased from 2010 to 2020, and the agglomeration and spatial correlation intensified, but they tended to be irregular. (2) The various elements of the development foundation showed apparent spatial differentiation, and the spatial distribution of rural settlements at different levels presented a core–edge structure. (3) The development of rural settlements was reduced to six models: in-situ urbanization, satellite urbanization, competitive-industry-driven, characteristic-tourism-driven, modern-agriculture-driven, and village relocation. Finally, the article proposes different development paths for different development models.