Accurate rainfall-runoff modeling is crucial for water resource management. However, the available models require more field-measured data to produce accurate results, which has been a long-term issue in hydrological modeling. Machine learning (ML) models have shown superiority in the hydrological field over statistical models. The primary aim of the present study was to advance a new coupled model combining model-driven models and ML models for accurate rainfall-runoff simulation in the Voshmgir basin in northern Iran. Rainfall-runoff data from 2002 to 2007 were collected from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) satellite and the Iran water resources management company. The findings revealed that the model-driven model could not fully describe river runoff patterns during the investigated time period. The extreme learning machine and support vector regression models showed similar performances for 1-day-ahead rainfall–runoff forecasting, while the long short-term memory (LSTM) model outperformed these two models. Our results demonstrated that the coupled physically based model and LSTM model outperformed other models, particularly for 1-day-ahead forecasting. The present methodology could be potentially applied in the same hydrological properties catchment.

Accurate rainfall-runoff modeling is crucial for water resource management. However, the available models require more field-measured data to produce accurate results, which has been a long-term issue in hydrological modeling. Machine learning (ML) models have shown superiority in the hydrological field over statistical models. The primary aim of the present study was to advance a new coupled model combining model-driven models and ML models for accurate rainfall-runoff simulation in the Voshmgir basin in northern Iran. Rainfall-runoff data from 2002 to 2007 were collected from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and the Iran Water Resources Management Company. The findings revealed that the model-driven model could not fully describe river runoff patterns during the investigated time period. The extreme learning machine and support vector regression models showed similar performances for 1-day-ahead rainfall–runoff forecasting, while the long short-term memory (LSTM) model outperformed these two models. Our results demonstrated that the coupled physically based model and LSTM model outperformed other models, particularly for 1-day-ahead forecasting. The present results open a new avenue for the adoption of deep learning models in hydrological studies.