In recent years, rapid urban expansion and increasing ecological sensitivity in arid zones have led to extreme imbalances in ecosystem development. Therefore, there is an urgent need to balance the dual goals of synergistic development of ecosystem services (ESs) and increased urbanization. Previous studies have analyzed the impacts of urbanization on ESs but have selected a limited number of indicators and have not focused on the impacts of urbanization on ES pair interactions. In this study, six key ESs (water yield, habitat quality, soil conservation, carbon storage, carbon sequestration and oxygen production, and food production) and total ecosystem services (TESs) were selected, and trends in the temporal and spatial relationship between trade-offs and synergies were analyzed over 20 years. This study refined the living standards urbanization indicator and evaluated the impact of urbanization and multiple drivers on ESs and ES pair interrelationships based on geo-detectors and segmented linear regression. The results show that there is heterogeneity in the overall and regional ES trade-offs and synergistic relationships, and water yield (WY)-related ES pairs generally exhibit synergistic relationships at the overall level. Spatially, however, the trade-off ratio exceeds the synergy ratio. Segmented linear regression results show that the relationship between all the urbanization indicators and TESs demonstrates an upward trend followed by a downward trend. Measures such as the increase in man-made oases in the early stages of urbanization did have some positive effects on TESs. However, as urbanization increased, these positive effects were quickly offset by the negative effects of overdevelopment and environmental degradation, leading to an overall decline in TESs. Urbanization of construction land (CL) had the most direct impact on ecosystem services. In summary, due to special climatic constraints, arid zones are more sensitive than other ecosystems, and urban development is strictly limited by oasis capacity. As cities expand, attention needs to be focused on protecting ecological land and limiting the expansion of CL to promote the synergistic development of urbanization and ecosystem services in arid zones.

Ecologically fragile areas are confronted with the contradiction between economic development and ecological protection, especially in the Tuha region (Turpan and Hami), where the extremely vulnerable ecological environment limits local sustainable development. To address this, this study utilizes POI (Point of Interest) data, land use, and socioeconomic statistical data to achieve spatial quantification of indicators on a kilometer grid scale, constructing a multi-factor, multi-dimensional evaluation system for the socioeconomic and ecological effects of sustainable development based on SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). The entropy method, comprehensive evaluation method, coupling coordination degree model, and geographical detector method are used to analyze the coupling relationships between systems at different scales and the factors influencing the system’s coupling coordination degree. The results indicate that from 2010 to 2020, the economic, social, and ecological systems of the Tuha region, as well as their comprehensive scores, exhibited spatial similarity. The economic system showed an upward trend, the social system displayed an inverted U-shaped trend of rising then declining, while the ecological system presented a U-shaped trend of declining then increasing. At the county scale, the coupling coordination degree closely approximates the trend of the comprehensive coordination index, showing a continuous upward trajectory. Compared with Turpan city, Hami city, especially Yizhou district, exhibits the best development in coupling coordination degree, while the growth in coupling coordination degree is most significant in Gaochang district. The main factors influencing the degree of coupling coordination are grain production and GDP (gross domestic product). This study provides a new perspective on the quantification of sustainable development indicators, which is of great significance for balancing economic and social development with ecological protection and promoting the coupled and coordinated development of society, economy, and ecology in ecologically fragile areas.