Land-use changes in urban fringe areas are dramatic, and modelling and predicting land-use changes under different scenarios can provide a basis for urban development regulation and control. As an important part of Beijing’s urban fringe, Daxing District is representative of its land-use changes. Taking the Daxing District of Beijing as an example, this study selected two periods of land-use data in 2008 and 2018 and predicted land-use changes in 2028 and 2038 using the GeoSOS-FLUS model (geographical simulation and optimisation system–future land-use simulation) and Markov chain model, based on the simulation and validation of land use in Daxing District from 2008 to 2018. Meanwhile, three types of scenario simulations were carried out. The results in the future predictions show that: (1) under the natural development scenario, the area of construction land and grassland gradually increased, and the area of cultivated land, woodland and water bodies gradually decreased; (2) under the cultivated land protection scenario, the area of cultivated land remained largely unchanged, the area of grassland decreased before increasing, the expansion of construction land was curbed, and the area of woodland and water bodies increased slowly; and (3) under the ecological control scenario, the area of cultivated land, grassland, woodland and water bodies showed slowly increasing trends, with a small amount of cultivated land being converted to construction land. These results indicate that the setting of cultivated land protection and ecological control can limit the expansion of construction land to a certain extent. This study can provide a basis for the regulation of urban development in the Daxing District in the future.

Resource, environmental, and ecological issues have become major constraints to the development of many regions. The Yellow River Basin is an important barrier for maintaining ecological security in northern China, but it has been impacted by problems such as severe soil erosion and declining biodiversity. The rational construction of ecological security patterns is important to enhance ecosystem functions and maintain regional ecological security. In this study, a comprehensive ecological security assessment system was constructed by selecting ecosystem service importance, ecological sensitivity, and landscape connectivity to assess the ecological security of Xiliu Ditch, an ecologically fragile region of the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin in China. The assessment results showed significant spatial heterogeneity, with medium- and low-security value areas dominating, while high-security value areas accounted for only 18.7% of the study area. Seventeen ecological sources were identified from the high-security areas, which were mainly composed of grassland, woodland, and water bodies, most of which are distributed in the southern part of the study area. Twenty ecological corridors were selected by the minimum cumulative resistance model and gravity model and classified into 15 construction corridors and 5 potential corridors. Forty-six ecological nodes were defined, including twenty strategic points, nine potential strategic points, and seventeen break points. On this basis, we constructed an ecological security pattern of “two belts, three cores, six zones, multiple corridors and multiple nodes” and proposed corresponding ecological governance measures. This study explores the ecological security pattern at the small watershed scale, which helps to realize the fine management of the Xiliu Ditch basin and, on this basis, can provide scientific support for the ecological protection and sustainable development of the Yellow River basin. In addition, the ecological security assessment system proposed in this study can provide new ideas for the construction of ecological security patterns in similar ecologically fragile areas around the globe.

Urban parks beautify the environment and promote urban public health, and their spatial allocation is significant in maintaining environmental justice. However, the current allocation of urban parks focuses on quantity fairness and pays insufficient attention to accessibility and quality fairness. This study investigated the core area of Beijing and analyzed the fairness of urban park allocation based on park accessibility, area, and quality. We used big data crawling, the two-step floating catchment area method, comprehensive equity evaluation of parks, spatial autocorrelation, and non-parametric tests. The results showed inequality in terms of accessibility, area, and quality, with high spatial distribution in the north and low spatial distribution in the south. The accessibility, shortest distance, and total area of urban parks in high-income residential areas were 3.0, 2.1, and 1.8 times higher, respectively, than those of the low-income residential areas. This indicates that high-income groups have better accessibility, live closer to, and have access to larger urban parks. Middle-income and above groups had access to green space, whereas medium-to-low-income residential areas had poor access to parks, particularly high-quality parks. These findings provide decision-making and planning references for the optimal allocation and rational planning of urban parks.

Equitable distribution of urban park green space benefits public health and improves quality of life. From the perspective of landscape justice, this study establishes a subjective and objective comprehensive fairness evaluation method and analyzes the fairness of the spatial distribution of park green space in the Daxing part of Yizhuang New Town, Beijing and its relationship with the economic level of residents. The results show that: (1) the green space in the Daxing part of Yizhuang New Town is concentrated in the town center and distributed more sparsely in surrounding areas; (2) urban park green space is not equitable in quantity, area, disaster prevention and avoidance, or accessibility; (3) high-grade apartment complexes have higher quality of services than low-grade apartment complexes, and the number of parks, per capita park area, disaster prevention and avoidance, and park accessibility are all higher for high-grade than for low-grade apartment complexes. Medium-grade apartment complexes have a high level of green space services, and the number of parks, total area, and accessibility are 1.06, 2.58, and 1.13 times higher than those of high-grade apartment complexes, respectively. Conversely, disaster prevention and avoidance and park area per capita of medium-grade apartment complexes are lower than in high-grade apartment complexes, at 0.81 and 0.12 times, respectively. This study provides a new perspective for exploring society and landscape equity and concludes with suggestions for improving park green space public services.

Urbanization and economic growth have substantially modified the land utilization structure, affecting ecosystem services and their spatial distribution. As a crucial component of Beijing’s urban framework, the city’s green belts, located at the periphery of its core metropolitan area, play a vital role in supplying urban ecosystem services. They also represent a focal point for land use transformation conflicts, making them an important study area. This research utilizes land utilization data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 as the primary dataset. It adopts a modified standard equivalent factor and integrates it with the Patch-Generaling Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to model land utilization in Beijing’s green belts for 2035 under three scenarios: the natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS) and cultivated protection scenario (CPS). The study aims to analyze and project the spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem service values (ESVs) in 2035 under different scenarios in the green belts of Beijing. The results indicate that (1) land use in Beijing’s green belts is dominated by cropland and construction land. Construction land has expanded significantly since 2000, increasing by 500.78 km², while cropland has decreased by 488.47 km². Woodland, grassland, and water have also seen a reduction. Overall, there is a trend of woodland and water being converted into cropland, with cropland subsequently transitioning into construction land. (2) In the NDS, construction land increases by 91.76 km², while cropland, grassland, and water decrease. In EDS, the growth of construction land decelerates to 22.09 km², the reduction in cropland decelerates, and the conversion of cropland to construction land is limited. Grassland and water remain largely unchanged, and woodland experiences a slight increase. In CPS, the conversion of cropland to construction land is notably reduced, with construction land increasing by 11.97 km², woodland increasing slightly, and grassland and water decreasing slightly. (3) The ESV ranking across scenarios is as follows: EPS 1830.72 mln yuan > CPS 1816.23 mln yuan > NDS 1723.28 mln yuan. Hydrological regulation and climate regulation are the dominant services in all scenarios. ESV in EPS attains the greatest economic gains. This study contributes to understanding the effects of land utilization changes on ESV, offering valuable empirical evidence for sustainable development decision-making in swiftly urbanizing areas.