Travel time estimation from GPS trips is of great importance to order duration, ridesharing, taxi dispatching, etc. However, the dense trajectory is not always available due to the limitation of data privacy and acquisition, while the origin-destination (OD) type of data, such as NYC taxi data, NYC bike data, and Capital Bikeshare data, is more accessible. To address this issue, this paper starts to estimate the OD trips travel time combined with the road network. Subsequently, a M ulti-task W eakly S upervised L earning Framework for T ravel T ime E stimation (MWSL-TTE) has been proposed to infer transition probability between roads segments, and the travel time on road segments and intersection simultaneously. Technically, given an OD pair, the transition probability intends to recover the most possible route. And then, the output of travel time is equal to the summation of all segments' and intersections' travel time in this route. A novel route recovery function has been proposed to iteratively maximize the current routes' co-occurrence probability, and minimize the discrepancy between routes' probability distribution and the inverse distribution of routes' estimation loss. Moreover, the expected log-likelihood function based on a weakly-supervised framework has been deployed in optimizing the travel time from road segments and intersections concurrently. We conduct experiments on a wide range of real-world taxi datasets in Xi'an and Chengdu and demonstrate our method's effectiveness on route recovery and travel time estimation.

Estimating the travel time of a path is an essential topic for the intelligent transportation system. It serves as the foundation for real-world applications, such as traffic monitoring, route planning, and taxi dispatching. However, building a model for such a data-driven task requires a large amount of users’ travel information, which closely relates to their privacy and thus is less likely to be shared. The not independent and identically distributed (Non-IID) trajectory data across data owners also makes a predictive model extremely challenging to be personalized if we directly apply federated learning. Finally, previous work on travel time estimation does not consider the real-time traffic state of roads, which we argue can significantly influence the prediction. To address the above challenges, we introduce GOF-TTE for the mobile user group, Generative Online Federated Learning Framework for Travel Time Estimation, which I) utilizes the federated learning approach, allowing private data to be kept on client devices while training, and designs the global model as an online generative model shared by all clients to infer the real-time road traffic state. II) apart from sharing a base model at the server, adapts a fine-tuned personalized model for every client to study their personal driving habits, making up for the residual error made by localized global model prediction. We also employ a simple privacy attack to our framework and implement the differential privacy mechanism to guarantee privacy safety further. Finally, we conduct experiments on two real-world public taxi datasets of DiDi Chengdu and Xi’an. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Recently, forecasting the crowd flows has become an important research topic, and plentiful technologies have achieved good performances. As we all know, the flow at a citywide level is in a mixed state with several basic patterns (e.g., commuting, working, and commercial) caused by the city area functional distributions (e.g., developed commercial areas, educational areas and parks). However, existing technologies have been criticized for their lack of considering the differences in the flow patterns among regions since they want to build only one comprehensive model to learn the mixed flow tensors. Recognizing this limitation, we present a new perspective on flow prediction and propose an explainable framework named ST-ExpertNet, which can adopt every spatial-temporal model and train a set of functional experts devoted to specific flow patterns. Technically, we train a bunch of experts based on the Mixture of Experts (MoE), which guides each expert to specialize in different kinds of flow patterns in sample spaces by using the gating network. We define several criteria, including comprehensiveness, sparsity, and preciseness, to construct the experts for better interpretability and performances. We conduct experiments on a wide range of real-world taxi and bike datasets in Beijing and NYC. The visualizations of the expert's intermediate results demonstrate that our ST-ExpertNet successfully disentangles the city's mixed flow tensors along with the city layout, e.g., the urban ring road structure. Different network architectures, such as ST-ResNet, ConvLSTM, and CNN, have been adopted into our ST-ExpertNet framework for experiments and the results demonstrates the superiority of our framework in both interpretability and performances.

Graph convolution network-based approaches have been recently used to model region-wise relationships in region-level prediction problems in urban computing. Each relationship represents a kind of spatial dependency, such as region-wise distance or functional similarity. To incorporate multiple relationships into a spatial feature extraction, we define the problem as a multi-modal machine learning problem on multi-graph convolution networks. Leveraging the advantage of multi-modal machine learning, we propose to develop modality interaction mechanisms for this problem in order to reduce the generalization error by reinforcing the learning of multi-modal coordinated representations. In this work, we propose two interaction techniques for handling features in lower layers and higher layers, respectively. In lower layers, we propose grouped GCN to combine the graph connectivity from different modalities for a more complete spatial feature extraction. In higher layers, we adapt multi-linear relationship networks to GCN by exploring the dimension transformation and freezing part of the covariance structure. The adapted approach, called multi-linear relationship GCN, learns more generalized features to overcome the train–test divergence induced by time shifting. We evaluated our model on a ride-hailing demand forecasting problem using two real-world datasets. The proposed technique outperforms state-of-the art baselines in terms of prediction accuracy, training efficiency, interpretability and model robustness.

Spatiotemporal neural networks have shown great promise in urban scenarios by effectively capturing temporal and spatial correlations. However, urban environments are constantly evolving, and current model evaluations are often limited to traffic scenarios and use data mainly collected only a few weeks after training period to evaluate model performance. The generalization ability of these models remains largely unexplored. To address this, we propose a Spatiotemporal Out-of-Distribution (ST-OOD) benchmark, which comprises six urban scenario: bike-sharing, 311 services, pedestrian counts, traffic speed, traffic flow, ride-hailing demand, and bike-sharing, each with in-distribution (same year) and out-of-distribution (next years) settings. We extensively evaluate state-of-the-art spatiotemporal models and find that their performance degrades significantly in out-of-distribution settings, with most models performing even worse than a simple Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). Our findings suggest that current leading methods tend to over-rely on parameters to overfit training data, which may lead to good performance on in-distribution data but often results in poor generalization. We also investigated whether dropout could mitigate the negative effects of overfitting. Our results showed that a slight dropout rate could significantly improve generalization performance on most datasets, with minimal impact on in-distribution performance. However, balancing in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance remains a challenging problem. We hope that the proposed benchmark will encourage further research on this critical issue.

Higher-order patterns reveal sequential multistep state transitions, which are usually superior to origin-destination analyses that depict only firstorder geospatial movement patterns. Conventional methods for higher-order movement modeling first construct a directed acyclic graph (DAG) of movements and then extract higher-order patterns from the DAG. However, DAG-based methods rely heavily on identifying movement keypoints, which are challenging for sparse movements and fail to consider the temporal variants critical for movements in urban environments. To overcome these limitations, we propose HoLens, a novel approach for modeling and visualizing higher-order movement patterns in the context of an urban environment. HoLens mainly makes twofold contributions: First, we designed an auto-adaptive movement aggregation algorithm that self-organizes movements hierarchically by considering spatial proximity, contextual information, and temporal variability. Second, we developed an interactive visual analytics interface comprising well-established visualization techniques, including the H-Flow for visualizing the higher-order patterns on the map and the higher-order state sequence chart for representing the higher-order state transitions. Two real-world case studies demonstrate that the method can adaptively aggregate data and exhibit the process of exploring higher-order patterns using HoLens. We also demonstrate the feasibility, usability, and effectiveness of our approach through expert interviews with three domain experts.