A critical evaluation of the newly released precipitation data set is very important for both the end users and data developers. Meanwhile, the evaluation may provide a benchmark for the product’s continued development and future improvement. To these ends, the four precipitation estimates including IMERG (the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement) V04A, IMERG V03D, CMORPH (the Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique)-CRT and TRMM (the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3B42 are systematically evaluated against the gauge precipitation estimates at multiple spatiotemporal scales from 1 June 2014 to 30 November 2015 over three different topographic and climatic watersheds in China. Meanwhile, the statistical methods are utilized to quantize the performance of the four satellite-based precipitation estimates. The results show that: (1) over the Tibetan Plateau cold region, among all products, IMERG V04A underestimates precipitation with the largest RB (−46.98%) during the study period and the similar results are seen at the seasonal scale. However, IMERG V03D demonstrates the best performance according to RB (7.46%), RMSE (0.44 mm/day) and RRMSE (28.37%). Except for in summer, TRMM 3B42 perform better than CMORPH according to RMSEs, RRMSEs and Rs; (2) within the semi-humid Huaihe River Basin, IMERG V04A has a slight advantage over the other three satellite-based precipitation products with the lowest RMSE (0.32 mm/day) during the evaluation period and followed by IMERG V03D, TRMM 3B42 and CMORPH orderly; (3) over the arid/semi-arid Weihe River Basin, in comparison with the other three products, TRMM 3B42 demonstrates the best performance with the lowest RMSE (0.1 mm/day), RRMSE (8.44%) and highest R (0.92) during the study period. Meanwhile, IMERG V03D perform better than IMERG V04A according all the statistical indicators; (4) in winter, IMERG V04A and IMERG V03D tend to underestimate the total precipitation with RBs (−70.62% vs. −6.47% over the Tibetan Plateau, −46.92% vs. −0.66% over the Weihe River Basin, respectively); and (5) overall, except for IMERG V04A in Tibetan Plateau, all satellite-based precipitation captured the gauge-based precipitation well over the three regions according to RRMSEs, Rs and Rbs during the study period. IMERG V03D performs better than its predecessors-TRMM 3B42 and CMORPH over the Tibetan Plateau region and the Huaihe River Basin, while IMERG V04A only does so over the latter. Between the two IMERG products, IMERG V04A does not show an advantage over IMERG V03D over the Tibetan Plateau region and the Weihe River Basin. In particular, over the former, IMERG V04A performs far worse than IMERG V03D. These findings provide valuable feedback for both IMERG algorithm developers and data users.

This study aimed to statistically and hydrologically assess the performance of the four latest and widely used satellite–gauge combined precipitation estimates (SGPEs), namely CRT (CMORPH CRT), BLD (CMORPH BLD), CDR (PERSIANN CDR), 3B42 (TMPA 3B42 version 7) over the upper yellow river basins (UYRB) in china during 2001–2012 time period. The performances of the SGPEs were compared with the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) datasets using the hydrologic model called Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) which is known as a land surface hydrologic model. Results indicated that irrespective of the slight underestimation in the western mountains and overestimation in the southeast, the four SGPEs could generally captured the spatial distribution of precipitation well. Although 3B42 exhibited a better performance in capturing the spatial distribution of daily average precipitation, BLD agreed best with CMA in the time series of watershed average precipitation, which resulted in BLD having a comparable performance to the CMA in the long-term hydrological simulations. Moreover, the potential for disastrous heavy rain mainly occurs in southeastern corner of the basin, and CRT and BLD comparisons showed to be closer to the CMA in the distribution of extreme precipitation events while 3B42 and CDR overestimated the extreme precipitation especially over the southeast of UYRB region. Therefore, CRT and BLD were able to match the high peak discharges very well for the wet seasons, while 3B42 and CDR overrated the high peak discharges. In addition, the four SGPEs performed well for the 2005 flood event but exhibited poorly when tested for the 2012 flood event. Results indicate that the application of the four SGPEs should be used with caution in simulating massive flood events over UYRB region.

This study investigates the sensitivity and uncertainty of hydrological droughts frequencies and severity in the Weihe Basin, China during 1960–2012, by using six commonly used univariate probability distributions and three Archimedean copulas to fit the marginal and joint distributions of drought characteristics. The Anderson-Darling method is used for testing the goodness-of-fit of the univariate model, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is applied to select the best distribution and copula functions. The results demonstrate that there is a very strong correlation between drought duration and drought severity in three stations. The drought return period varies depending on the selected marginal distributions and copula functions and, with an increase of the return period, the differences become larger. In addition, the estimated return periods (both co-occurrence and joint) from the best-fitted copulas are the closet to those from empirical distribution. Therefore, it is critical to select the appropriate marginal distribution and copula function to model the hydrological drought frequency and severity. The results of this study can not only help drought investigation to select a suitable probability distribution and copulas function, but are also useful for regional water resource management. However, a few limitations remain in this study, such as the assumption of stationary of runoff series.

The comprehensive assessment of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) V05B is important for benchmarking the product’s continued improvement and future development. The performance of IMERG V05B precipitation products was systematically evaluated using 542 precipitation gauges at multiple spatiotemporal scales from March 2014 to February 2017 over China. Moreover, IMERG V05B was compared with IMERG V04A, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42, and the Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH)-CRT in this study. Categorical verification techniques and statistical methods are used to quantify their performance. Results illustrate the following. (1) Except for IMERG V04A’s severe underestimation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Xinjiang (XJ) with high negative relative biases (RBs) and CMORPH-CRT’s overestimation over XJ with high positive RB, the four satellite-based precipitation products generally capture the same spatial patterns of precipitation over China. (2) At the annual scale over China, the IMERG products do not show an advantage over its predecessor (TRMM 3B42) in terms of RMSEs, RRMSEs, and Rs; meanwhile, the performance of IMERG products is worse than TRMM 3B42 in spring and summer according to the RMSE, RRMSE, and R metrics. Between the two IMERG products, IMERG V05B shows the anticipated improvement (over IMERG V04A) with a decrease in RMSE from 0.4496 to 0.4097 mm/day, a decrease of RRMSE from 16.95% to 15.44%, and an increase of R from 0.9689 to 0.9759 during the whole study period. Similar results are obtained at the seasonal scale. Among the four satellite products, CMORPH-CRT shows the worst seasonal performance with the highest RMSE (0.6247 mm/day), RRMSE (23.55%), and lowest R (0.9343) over China. (3) Over XJ and TP, IMERG V05B clearly improves the strong underestimation of precipitation in IMERG V04A with the RBs of 5.2% vs. −21.8% over XJ, and 2.78% vs. −46% over TP. Results at the annual scale are similar to those obtained at the seasonal scale, except for summer results over XJ. While, over the remaining subregions, the two IMERG products have a close performance; meanwhile, IMERG V04A slightly improves IMERG V05B’s overestimation according to RBs (except for HN) at the annual scale. However, all four products are unreliable over XJ at both an annual and seasonal scale. (4) Across all products, TRMM 3B42 best reproduces the probability density function (PDF) of daily precipitation intensity. (5) According to the categorical verification technique in this study, both IMERG products yield better results for the detection of precipitation events on the basis of probability of detection (POD) and critical success index (CSI) categorical evaluations compared to TRMM 3B42 and CMORPH-CRT over China and across most of the subregions. However, all four products have room for further improvement, especially in high-latitude and dry climate regions. These findings provide valuable feedback for both IMERG algorithm developers and data set users.

Hedging rules for water supply reservoir operations provide guidelines for balancing the consequences of competing water allocations. When inflow forecast uncertainty is addressed, hedging acts as insurances for offsetting the negative influence of water shortage in the future, especially when drought is anticipated. This study used a risk-averse criterion, the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), rather than the expected value (EV) criterion, to rationalize water delivery for overcoming the shortcomings of risk-neutral hedging rules in minimizing water shortage impacts in unfavorable realizations, in which actual inflow is less than anticipated. A two-period hedging model with the objective of maximizing the CVaR of total benefits from water delivery and water storage is established, and the optimal hedging rules using first-order optimality condition are analytically derived. Differences in hedging rules under the two criteria are highlighted by theoretical analysis and numerical experiments. The methods are applied to guide the operations of a water supply reservoir, and results show that: (1) the hedging rules under the EV criterion are special cases under the CVaR criterion; (2) water delivery in the current period would be greatly curtailed under the high influence of forecast uncertainty or the significant risk-averse attitude of decision makers; (3) hedging to maximize the CVaR of total benefit is at the cost of reducing the EV of total benefit; and (4) in real-time operations, compared with the hedging policies under the EV criterion, the hedging policies under the CVaR criterion would be more effective when applied to dry and extremely dry hydrological conditions, especially when inflow is overestimated. These implications provide new insights into rationing water supply and risk aversion.

A high concentration of nitrate (NO₃⁻) in surface water threatens aquatic systems and human health. Revealing nitrate characteristics and identifying its sources are fundamental to making effective water management strategies. However, nitrate sources in multi-tributaries and mix land use watersheds remain unclear. In this study, based on 20 surface water sampling sites for more than two years’ monitoring from April 2012 to December 2014, water chemical and dual isotopic approaches (δ¹⁵N-NO₃⁻ and δ¹⁸O-NO₃⁻) were integrated for the first time to evaluate nitrate characteristics and sources in the Huashan watershed, Jianghuai hilly region, China. Nitrate-nitrogen concentrations (ranging from 0.02 to 8.57 mg/L) were spatially heterogeneous that were influenced by hydrogeological and land use conditions. Proportional contributions of five potential nitrate sources (i.e., precipitation; manure and sewage, M & S; soil nitrogen, NS; nitrate fertilizer; nitrate derived from ammonia fertilizer and rainfall) were estimated by using a Bayesian isotope mixing model. The results showed that nitrate sources contributions varied significantly among different rainfall conditions and land use types. As for the whole watershed, M & S (manure and sewage) and NS (soil nitrogen) were major nitrate sources in both wet and dry seasons (from 28% to 36% for manure and sewage and from 24% to 27% for soil nitrogen, respectively). Overall, combining a dual isotopes method with a Bayesian isotope mixing model offered a useful and practical way to qualitatively analyze nitrate sources and transformations as well as quantitatively estimate the contributions of potential nitrate sources in drinking water source watersheds, Jianghuai hilly region, eastern China.