Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious threat to global public health, but obtaining representative data on AMR for healthy human populations is difficult. Here, we use metagenomic analysis of untreated sewage to characterize the bacterial resistome from 79 sites in 60 countries. We find systematic differences in abundance and diversity of AMR genes between Europe/North-America/Oceania and Africa/Asia/South-America. Antimicrobial use data and bacterial taxonomy only explains a minor part of the AMR variation that we observe. We find no evidence for cross-selection between antimicrobial classes, or for effect of air travel between sites. However, AMR gene abundance strongly correlates with socio-economic, health and environmental factors, which we use to predict AMR gene abundances in all countries in the world. Our findings suggest that global AMR gene diversity and abundance vary by region, and that improving sanitation and health could potentially limit the global burden of AMR. We propose metagenomic analysis of sewage as an ethically acceptable and economically feasible approach for continuous global surveillance and prediction of AMR.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major threat to global health. Understanding the emergence, evolution, and transmission of individual antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) is essential to develop sustainable strategies combatting this threat. Here, we use metagenomic sequencing to analyse ARGs in 757 sewage samples from 243 cities in 101 countries, collected from 2016 to 2019. We find regional patterns in resistomes, and these differ between subsets corresponding to drug classes and are partly driven by taxonomic variation. The genetic environments of 49 common ARGs are highly diverse, with most common ARGs carried by multiple distinct genomic contexts globally and sometimes on plasmids. Analysis of flanking sequence revealed ARG-specific patterns of dispersal limitation and global transmission. Our data furthermore suggest certain geographies are more prone to transmission events and should receive additional attention.

Background: Hospital wastewater is a major source of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) outflow into the environment. This study uses metagenomics to study how hospital clinical activity impacts antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) abundances in hospital wastewater.Methods: Sewage was collected over a 24-h period from multiple wastewater collection points (CPs) representing different specialties within a tertiary hospital site and simultaneously from community sewage works. High throughput shotgun sequencing was performed using Illumina HiSeq4000. ARG abundances were correlated to hospital antimicrobial usage (AMU), data on clinical activity and resistance prevalence in clinical isolates.Results: Microbiota and ARG composition varied between CPs and overall ARG abundance was higher in hospital wastewater than in community influent. ARG and microbiota compositions were correlated (Procrustes analysis, p=0.014). Total antimicrobial usage was not associated with higher ARG abundance in wastewater. However, there was a small positive association between resistance genes and antimicrobial usage matched to ARG phenotype (IRR 1.11, CI 1.06–1.16, p<0.001). Furthermore, analyzing carbapenem and vancomycin resistance separately indicated that counts of ARGs to these antimicrobials were positively associated with their increased usage [carbapenem rate ratio (RR) 1.91, 95% CI 1.01–3.72, p=0.07, and vancomycin RR 10.25, CI 2.32–49.10, p<0.01]. Overall, ARG abundance within hospital wastewater did not reflect resistance patterns in clinical isolates from concurrent hospital inpatients. However, for clinical isolates of the family Enterococcaceae and Staphylococcaceae, there was a positive relationship with wastewater ARG abundance [odds ratio (OR) 1.62, CI 1.33–2.00, p<0.001, and OR 1.65, CI 1.21–2.30, p=0.006 respectively].Conclusion: We found that the relationship between hospital wastewater ARGs and antimicrobial usage or clinical isolate resistance varies by specific antimicrobial and bacterial family studied. One explanation, we consider is that relationships observed from multiple departments within a single hospital site will be detectable only for ARGs against parenteral antimicrobials uniquely used in the hospital setting. Our work highlights that using metagenomics to identify the full range of ARGs in hospital wastewater is a useful surveillance tool to monitor hospital ARG carriage and outflow and guide environmental policy on AMR.

Consumption of antibiotics in food animals is increasing worldwide and is approaching, if not already surpassing, the volume consumed by humans. It is often suggested that reducing the volume of antibiotics consumed by food animals could have public health benefits. Although this notion is widely regarded as intuitively obvious there is a lack of robust, quantitative evidence to either support or contradict the suggestion. As a first step towards addressing this knowledge gap, we develop a simple mathematical model for exploring the generic relationship between antibiotic consumption by food animals and levels of resistant bacterial infections in humans. We investigate the impact of restricting antibiotic consumption by animals and identify which model parameters most strongly determine that impact. Our results suggest that, for a wide range of scenarios, curtailing the volume of antibiotics consumed by food animals has, as a stand-alone measure, little impact on the level of resistance in humans. We also find that reducing the rate of transmission of resistance from animals to humans may be more effective than an equivalent reduction in the consumption of antibiotics in food animals. Moreover, the response to any intervention is strongly determined by the rate of transmission from humans to animals, an aspect which is rarely considered.

Antibiotic resistance is transmitted between animals and humans either directly or indirectly, through transmission via the environment. However, little is known about the contribution of the environment to resistance epidemiology. Here, we use a mathematical model to study the effect of the environment on human resistance levels and the impact of interventions to reduce antibiotic consumption in animals. We developed a model of resistance transmission with human, animal, and environmental compartments. We compared the model outcomes under different transmission scenarios, conducted a sensitivity analysis, and investigated the impacts of curtailing antibiotic usage in animals. Human resistance levels were most sensitive to parameters associated with the human compartment (rate of loss of resistance from humans) and with the environmental compartment (rate of loss of environmental resistance and rate of environment-to-human transmission). Increasing environmental transmission could lead to increased or reduced impact of curtailing antibiotic consumption in animals on resistance in humans. We highlight that environment–human sharing of resistance can influence the epidemiology of resistant bacterial infections in humans and reduce the impact of interventions that curtail antibiotic consumption in animals. More data on resistance in the environment and frequency of human–environment transmission is crucial to understanding antibiotic resistance dynamics.

This study demonstrates that an adoption of a segmenting and shielding strategy could increase the scope to partially exit COVID-19 lockdown while limiting the risk of an overwhelming second wave of infection. We illustrate this using a mathematical model that segments the vulnerable population and their closest contacts, the ‘shielders’. Effects of extending the duration of lockdown and faster or slower transition to post-lockdown conditions and, most importantly, the trade-off between increased protection of the vulnerable segment and fewer restrictions on the general population are explored. Our study shows that the most important determinants of outcome are: (i) post-lockdown transmission rates within the general and between the general and vulnerable segments; (ii) fractions of the population in the vulnerable and shielder segments; (iii) adherence to protective measures; and (iv) build-up of population immunity. Additionally, we found that effective measures in the shielder segment, e.g. intensive routine screening, allow further relaxations in the general population. We find that the outcome of any future policy is strongly influenced by the contact matrix between segments and the relationships between physical distancing measures and transmission rates. This strategy has potential applications for any infectious disease for which there are defined proportions of the population who cannot be treated or who are at risk of severe outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.