Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been one of the most cost-effective approaches to track the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) levels in the communities since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in 2020. Normalizing SARS-CoV-2 concentrations by the population biomarkers in wastewater is critical for interpreting the viral loads, comparing the epidemiological trends among the sewersheds, and identifying the vulnerable communities. In this study, five population biomarkers, pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), creatinine (CRE), 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), caffeine (CAF) and its metabolite paraxanthine (PARA) were investigated and validated for their utility in normalizing the SARS-CoV-2 loads through two normalizing approaches using the data from 64 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Missouri. Their utility in assessing the real-time population contributing to the wastewater was also evaluated. The best performing candidate was further tested for its capacity for improving correlation between normalized SARS-CoV-2 loads and the clinical cases reported in the City of Columbia, Missouri, a university town with a constantly fluctuating population. Our results showed that, except CRE, the direct and indirect normalization approaches using biomarkers allow accounting for the changes in wastewater dilution and differences in relative human waste input over time regardless flow volume and population of the given WWTP. Among selected biomarkers, PARA is the most reliable population biomarker in determining the SARS-CoV-2 load per capita due to its high accuracy, low variability, and high temporal consistency to reflect the change in population dynamics and dilution in wastewater. It also demonstrated its excellent utility for real-time assessment of the population contributing to the wastewater. In addition, the viral loads normalized by the PARA-estimated population significantly improved the correlation (rho=0.5878, p < 0.05) between SARS-CoV-2 load per capita and case numbers per capita. This chemical biomarker complements the current normalization scheme recommended by CDC and helps us understand the size, distribution, and dynamics of local populations for forecasting the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 within each sewershed.

Recent SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) surveillance have documented a positive correlation between the number of COVID-19 patients in a sewershed and the level of viral genetic material in the wastewater. Efforts have been made to use the wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load to predict the infected population within each sewershed using a multivariable regression approach. However, reported clear and sustained variability in SARS-CoV-2 viral load among treatment facilities receiving industrial wastewater have made clinical prediction challenging. Several classes of molecules released by regional industries and manufacturing facilities, particularly the food processing industry, can significantly suppress the SARS-CoV-2 signals in wastewater by breaking down the lipid-bilayer of the membranes. Therefore, a systematic ranking process in conjugation with metabolomic analysis was developed to identify the wastewater treatment facilities exhibiting SARS-CoV-2 suppression and identify and quantify the chemicals suppressing the SARS-COV-2 signals. By ranking the viral load per diagnosed case among the sewersheds, we successfully identified the wastewater treatment facilities in Missouri, USA that exhibit SARS-CoV-2 suppression (significantly lower than 5 × 10¹¹ gene copies/reported case) and determined their suppression rates. Through both untargeted global chemical profiling and targeted analysis of wastewater samples, 40 compounds were identified as candidates of SARS-CoV-2 signal suppressors. Among these compounds, 14 had higher concentrations in wastewater treatment facilities that exhibited SARS-CoV-2 signal suppression compared to the unsuppressed control facilities. Stepwise regression analyses indicated that 4-nonylphenol, palmitelaidic acid, sodium oleate, and polyethylene glycol dioleate are positively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 signal suppression rates. Suppression activities were further confirmed by incubation studies, and the suppression kinetics for each bioactive compound were determined. According to the results of these experiments, bioactive molecules in wastewater can significantly reduce the stability of SARS-CoV-2 genetic marker signals. Based on the concentrations of these chemical suppressors, a correction factor could be developed to achieve more reliable and unbiased surveillance results for wastewater treatment facilities that receive wastewater from similar industries.

In a previous study, photonic-based molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) were fabricated using atrazine (ATZ) and its metabolites, desethylatrazine (DEA) and desisopropylatrazine (DIA), as templates in separate matrices. For the purposes of monitoring the abovementioned molecules in natural waters, the effect of natural waters—featuring ionic strength and natural organic matter (NOM) on atrazine MIP—were studied in this work, and the photonic MIP was implemented for monitoring the target molecules in natural water samples collected from land in nearby farms in northeast of Columbia MO. Non-imprinted polymers (NIP) were also fabricated and applied in the experiments as a control test. In presence of NaCl, CaCl₂, and NOM, MIPs presented lower responses by 26%, higher responses by 23%, and higher responses by 35%, respectively. NIPs response in terms of an increase or decrease was consistent with those of MIPs, but only for a lower percentage. MIPs response in natural waters—which were characterized for their physicochemical characteristics such as conductivity, total organic carbon content, etc.—provided a good approximation of the real concentrations obtained from the LCMS instrument; in general, they showed a good concordance, although large discrepancies occurred for some samples, which can be related to reproducibility issues in the manufacturing process or the presence of unknown interfering compounds in the real samples.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been one of the most cost-effective approaches to track the SARS-CoV-2 levels in the communities since the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. Normalizing SARS-CoV-2 concentrations by the population biomarkers in wastewater can be critical for interpreting the viral loads, comparing the epidemiological trends among the sewersheds, and identifying the vulnerable communities. In this study, five population biomarkers, pepper mild mottle virus (pMMoV), creatinine (CRE), 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), caffeine (CAF) and its metabolite paraxanthine (PARA) were investigated for their utility in normalizing the SARS-CoV-2 loads through developed direct and indirect approaches. Their utility in assessing the real-time population contributing to the wastewater was also evaluated. The best performed candidate was further tested for its capacity for improving correlation between normalized SARS-CoV-2 loads and the clinical cases reported in the City of Columbia, Missouri, a university town with a constantly fluctuated population. Our results showed that, except CRE, the direct and indirect normalization approaches using biomarkers allow accounting for the changes in wastewater dilution and differences in relative human waste input over time regardless flow volume and population at any given WWTP. Among selected biomarkers, PARA is the most reliable population biomarker in determining the SARS-CoV-2 load per capita due to its high accuracy, low variability, and high temporal consistency to reflect the change in population dynamics and dilution in wastewater. It also demonstrated its excellent utility for real-time assessment of the population contributing to the wastewater. In addition, the viral loads normalized by the PARA-estimated population significantly improved the correlation ( rho =0.5878, p <0.05) between SARS-CoV-2 load per capita and case numbers per capita. This chemical biomarker offers an excellent alternative to the currently CDC-recommended pMMoV genetic biomarker to help us understand the size, distribution, and dynamics of local populations for forecasting the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 within each sewershed. HIGHLIGHT (bullet points): The paraxanthine (PARA), the metabolite of the caffeine, is a more reliable population biomarker in SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based epidemiology studies than the currently recommended pMMoV genetic marker. SARS-CoV-2 load per capita could be directly normalized using the regression functions derived from correlation between paraxanthine and population without flowrate and population data. Normalizing SARS-CoV-2 levels with the chemical marker PARA significantly improved the correlation between viral loads per capita and case numbers per capita. The chemical marker PARA demonstrated its excellent utility for real-time assessment of the population contributing to the wastewater.