Precipitation forecasts provided by high-resolution NWP models have a degree of realism that is very appealing to most users of meteorological data. However, it is a challenge to demonstrate whether or not such forecasts contain more skillful information than their lower resolution counterparts. A verification procedure must be based on equally detailed observations that are also realistic in areas where ground observations are not available and remote sensing data can only increase the accuracy of the location of rain events at the cost of decreased accuracy in estimating the amount of rain that has actually reached the ground. Traditional verification methods based on station or grid point comparison yield poor results for high-resolution fields due to the double penalty error that is attributed to finite space and time displacement that such methods do not account for. A complete approach to evaluating precipitation forecasts over complex terrain is suggested. The method is based on realistic gridded precipitation observations generated by an interpolation method that uses long climate data series to determine the geographical characteristics that this parameter is best correlated with as well as remote sensing estimates as background information to cover the areas where observations are insufficient. Spatial verification methodologies are subsequently applied to a convective event that accentuate the relative skill of high-resolution COSMOGR forecasts in revealing characteristics in the precipitation patterns such as structure and intensity.

Data assimilation is a technique used to combine observational data with numerical weather analysis fields to produce input conditions for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models aimed at more accurate forecasts. In this study, two different regional Background Error (BE) covariance statistics are evaluated for the implementation of a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model using Variational Data Assimilation (VAR) schemes. Two different WRF model forecasts, initialized at different times, are compared to calculate different regional BE statistics based on the National Meteorological Center (NMC) technique. These statistics are then used in the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation process to produce analysis fields for a 15 day period during September 2019. The study compares the forecasts produced using the two different ΒΕ statistics and presents the results of the analysis fields during the medicane “Ianos” formed in September 2020 in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The study demonstrates the importance of BE statistics’ usage in data assimilation. The results suggest that different initialization times can lead to significant differences in weather evolution. The study also highlights the need for caution in the choice of BE statistics and the importance of best practices in data assimilation.

Lightning potential index (LPI) is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms and can be forecasted from NWP models. While the connection between cloud microphysics and lightning seems apparent, the common indices used for forecasting thunderstorms and the potential for lightning usually rely on stability and thermodynamic indices. Herein, an effort is made to correlate LPI high-resolution forecasts with observed lightning from local networks. In this way, the usefulness of the LPI for predicting lightning for the Greek territory and its significance as a tool for improving the weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall are demonstrated. In addition, a statistical evaluation of precipitation and lightning forecasts with novel spatial methods on selected intense precipitation events is performed by comparing them with gridded observation datasets, and the correlation of the results is determined.

Data assimilation (DA) integrates observational data with numerical weather predictions to enhance weather forecast accuracy. This study evaluates three regional background error (BE) covariance statistics for numerical weather prediction (NWP) via a variational data assimilation (VAR) scheme. The best practices in DA are highlighted, as well as the impact of BE covariance calculation in DA procedures by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Forecasts initialized at different intervals were used to compute distinct regional background error statistics utilizing three control variable (CV) methodologies over a span of 20 days. These statistics are used by the three-dimensional VAR DA process of WRF DA software, producing analysis fields that lead to forecasts for a distinct convective supercell event during the summer of 2019 over northern Greece. This high-impact convective event underscores the importance of selecting appropriate BE over complex terrain areas. The results emphasize the significance of BE usage in DA, proposing the optimal DA approach for simulations of convective systems.

Forecasting in-flight icing conditions is crucial for aviation safety, particularly in regions with variable and complex meteorological configurations, such as Greece. Icing accretion onto the aircraft’s surfaces is influenced by the presence of supercooled water in subfreezing environments. This paper outlines a methodology of forecasting icing conditions, with the development of the Icing Potential Algorithm that takes into consideration the meteorological scenarios related to icing accretion, using state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction model results, and forming a fuzzy logic tree based on different membership functions, applied for the first time over Greece. The synoptic situation of an organized low-pressure system passage, with occlusion, cold and warm fronts, over Greece that creates dynamically significant conditions for icing formation was investigated. The sensitivity of the algorithm was revealed upon the precipitation, cloud type and vertical velocity effects. It was shown that the greatest icing intensity is associated with single-layer ice and multi-layer clouds that are comprised of both ice and supercooled water, while convectivity and storm presence lead to also enhancing the icing formation. A qualitative evaluation of the results with satellite, radar and METAR observations was performed, indicating the general agreement of the method mainly with the ground-based observations.

Doppler weather radars play a pivotal role in meteorology, providing critical data for monitoring severe weather phenomena, such as thunderstorms. However, Doppler velocity measurements are subjected to aliasing errors when the true velocity exceeds the radar’s maximum detection velocity, compromising the accuracy of velocity data. Effective dealiasing techniques are essential to correct these errors and improve data, leading to reliable data assimilation and therefore improved numerical weather prediction (NWP) as well as nowcasting applications. In this study, an attempt is made to present a comparative study of four dealiasing algorithms—convolution-, expansion-, amplitude correction-, and sine-based algorithms—to assess their effectiveness in processing Doppler radar velocity data. The study aims to evaluate these algorithms based on their ability to correct aliasing errors, their computational efficiency, and their practical applicability in real-world meteorological scenarios. Through an experimental evaluation, the performance of each algorithm is analyzed. Results indicate varying degrees of effectiveness among the algorithms, highlighting their respective strengths and limitations in dealing with the velocity aliasing of radar data. It was found that the Amplitude Correction and Convolution algorithms outperformed the others in correcting aliasing. A combined multi-algorithm approach achieved the highest overall accuracy when compared to manually corrected reference data and other algorithms. This research contributes to advancing the understanding of radar data processing techniques and provides insights into optimizing dealiasing strategies for enhanced meteorological forecasting and nowcasting, as well as severe weather prediction.