Early determination of the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is important to guide clinical management and decrease mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a new simplified prognostic score to accurately predict outcomes in patients with HBV-ACLF. Prospective clinical data from 2,409 hospitalized patients with acute deterioration of HBV-related chronic liver disease were used to develop a new prognostic score that was validated in an external group. A total of 954 enrolled patients with HBV-ACLF were diagnosed based on the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-ACLF (COSSH-ACLF) criteria. Six predictive factors were significantly related to 28-day mortality and constituted a new prognostic score (=1.649×ln(international normalized ratio)+0.457×hepatic encephalopathy score+0.425×ln(neutrophil)+0.396×ln(total bilirubin)+0.576×ln(serum urea)+0.033×age). The C-indices of the new score for 28-/90-day mortality (0.826/0.809) were significantly higher than those of 4 other scores (COSSH-ACLF, 0.793/0.784; CLIF-C ACLF, 0.792/0.770; MELD, 0.731/0.727; MELD-Na, 0.730/0.726; all p <0.05). The prediction error rates of the new score for 28-day mortality were significantly lower than those of the 4 other scores: COSSH-ACLF (15.9%), CLIF-C ACLF (16.3%), MELD (35.3%) and MELD-Na (35.6%). The probability density function evaluation and risk stratification of the new score also showed the highest predictive values for mortality. These results were then validated in an external cohort. A new prognostic score based on 6 predictors, without an assessment of organ failure, can accurately predict short-term mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF and might be used to guide clinical management. Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a complex syndrome that is associated with a high short-term mortality rate. We developed a simplified prognostic score for patients suffering from this condition based on a prospective multicentre cohort. This new score had better predictive ability than 4 other commonly used scores.

To investigate serum cystatin C level as an early biomarker for predicting acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Fifty-six consecutive patients with hepatitis B virus-related ACLF who had normal serum creatinine (Cr) level (< 1.2 mg/dL in men, or < 1.1 mg/dL in women) were enrolled in the Liver Failure Treatment and Research Center of Beijing 302 Hospital between August 2011 and October 2012. Thirty patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 30 healthy controls in the same study period were also included. Measurement of serum cystatin C (CysC) was performed by a particle-enhanced immunonephelometry assay using the BN Prospec nephelometer system. The ACLF patients were followed during their hospitalization period. In the ACLF group, serum level of CysC was 1.1 ± 0.4 mg/L, which was significantly higher (P < 0.01) than those in the healthy controls (0.6 ± 0.3 mg/L) and CHB patients (0.7 ± 0.2 mg/L). During the hospitalization period, eight ACLF patients developed AKI. Logistic regression analysis indicated that CysC level was an independent risk factor for AKI development (odds ratio = 1.8; 95%CI: 1.4-2.3, P = 0.021). The cutoff value of serum CysC for prediction of AKI in ACLF patients was 1.21 mg/L. The baseline CysC-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR(CysC)) was significantly lower than the creatinine-based eGFR (eGFR(CG) and eGFR(MDRD)) in ACLF patients with AKI, suggesting that baseline eGFR(CysC) represented early renal function in ACLF patients while the Cr levels were still within the normal ranges. Serum CysC provides early prediction of renal dysfunction in ACLF patients with a normal serum Cr level.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a dynamic syndrome, and sequential assessments can reflect its prognosis more accurately. Our aim was to build and validate a new scoring system to predict short-term prognosis using baseline and dynamic data in ACLF. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of patients with ACLF from three different hospitals in China. To construct the model, we analyzed a training set of 541 patients from two hospitals. The model’s performance was evaluated in a validation set of 130 patients from another center. In the training set, multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, WGO type, basic etiology, total bilirubin, creatinine, prothrombin activity, and hepatic encephalopathy stage were all independent prognostic factors in ACLF. We designed a dynamic trend score table based on the changing trends of these indicators. Furthermore, a logistic prediction model (DP-ACLF) was constructed by combining the sum of dynamic trend scores and baseline prognostic parameters. All prognostic scores were calculated based on the clinical data of patients at the third day, first week, and second week after admission, respectively, and were correlated with the 90-day prognosis by ROC analysis. Comparative analysis showed that the AUC value for DP-ACLF was higher than for other prognostic scores, including Child–Turcotte–Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and COSSH-ACLF. The new scoring model, which combined baseline characteristics and dynamic changes in clinical indicators to predict the course of ACLF, showed a better prognostic ability than current scoring systems. Prospective studies are needed to validate these results.

BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY: To investigate thyroid function in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) caused by hepatitis B virus infection and to determine whether thyroid hormone levels can be used as prognostic markers for assessing severity and prognosis of ACLF patients. We enrolled 75 patients with ACLF and70 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Continual serum samples were collected during hospitalization from the ACLF patients. The serum thyroid hormone levels (triiodothyronine [T3], thyroxine [T4], free (F)-T3, FT4, and thyroid stimulation hormone [TSH]) were measured by chemiluminescence. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was used to assess severity. ACLF patients showed significantly (p < 0.001) lower values of serum T3, T4, FT3/FT4 and TSH than CHB patients. The T3, T4, and TSH levels in ACLF patients were negatively correlated with the MELD score (T3: r = -0.495, p < 0.001; T4: r = -0.281, p < 0.001; TSH: r = -0.498, p < 0.001), suggesting that serum thyroid hormone levels reflect disease severity. At 1 year, 31 patients died. The T3 (p = 0.016), T4 (p = 0.008), and TSH (p = 0.003) levels in non-survivors were significantly lower than in survivors. The serum TSH level was a significant factor for predicting mortality in ACLF patients (optimal cutoff value = 0.38 IU/mL). The cumulative survival rate was decreased significantly when the serum TSH level was < 0.38 IU/mL (39.2%, p < 0.001). Serum TSH level may be a useful indicator for assessing severity and prognosis in ACLF patients.