Soil temperature is an important physical variable that characterises geothermal conditions and influences geophysical, biological and chemical processes in the earth sciences. Soil temperature is not only affected by climatic and geographical factors; it is also modulated by local factors such as snow cover and vegetation. This paper investigates the relationship between snow cover and vegetation and soil temperature with the help of two classical remote sensing indicators, the Snow Cover Days (SCD) based Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies, to analyse the influence of local factors on soil temperature in the Three River Source Region (TRSR). Combing multi-layer geothermal observations from 23 stations in the TRSR with meteorological dataset, soil properties datasets, snow cover and vegetation indices, a non-linear model, the Random Forest model, is used to establish a multi-layer soil temperature dataset to analyse the influence of surface cover factors in each depth. The results showed that the annual SCD had a decreasing trend during 1982–2015 and was negatively correlated with the annual mean soil temperature; the annual NDVI had no significant trend, but it was positively correlated with the annual mean soil temperature. Regionally, there was a significant decrease in SCD in the mountainous areas bordering the source areas of the three rivers, and there was a trend of increasing NDVI in the northwest and decreasing vegetation in the southwest in the TRSR. The stronger the correlation with soil temperature in areas with a larger SCD, the more the snow has a cooling effect on the shallower soil temperatures due to the high albedo of the accumulated snow and the repeated melting and heat absorption of the snow in the area. The snow has an insulating effect on the 40 cm soil layer by impeding the cooling effect of the atmosphere in winter. In sparsely vegetated areas, vegetation lowers ground albedo and warms the soil, but in July and August, in areas with more vegetation, NDVI is negatively correlated with soil temperature, with heavy vegetation intercepting summer radiant energy and having a cooling effect on the soil.

An inadequate understanding of the changes in water and heat of the soil is likely a potential reason for the nonclosure of the surface energy balance. During the freeze/thaw period, the large volumetric heat capacity of ice and the latent heat of soil ice phase change had a specific influence on the estimation of ground heat flux (G₀). However, the effects of the freeze/thaw process on G₀ estimation were not well quantified using field observations. The improvements of G₀ estimation by adding the soil ice heat storage (Δs_ice) and the latent heat of soil ice phase change (Δs_LH) were evaluated during the freeze/thaw period at two sites (Madoi and Maqu) on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. During the freeze/thaw period, both Δs_ice and Δs_LH had important influences on the reasonable determination of G₀. Adding Δs_LH increased G₀ at the daytime peak by 34.4 W/m² (Madoi) and 9.3 W/m² (Maqu). During the completely frozen stage, the contributions of Δs_ice to G_{0 ice + LH} (adding both Δs_ice and Δs_LH) were higher than those during other freeze/thaw stages at both sites, and Δs_LH also made a significant contribution to G_{0 ice + LH}. Therefore, the daily freeze/thaw cycles cannot be ignored during the completely frozen stage in the estimation of G₀. The G_{0 ice + LH} approach improved the G₀ estimation more than G_0 ice (adding Δs_ice) approach during the freezing and thawing stages. The improvements of G₀ estimations increased the energy closure status and reduced the daily average of imbalance.

Soil moisture (SM) is a crucial factor in land-atmosphere interactions and climate systems, affecting surface energy, water budgets, and weather extremes. In the Three-River-Source Region (TRSR) of China, rapid climate change necessitates precise SM monitoring. This study employs a novel UNet-Gan model to integrate and downscale SM data from 17 CMIP6 models, producing a high-resolution (0.1°) dataset called CMIP6_UNet-Gan. This dataset includes SM data for five depth layers (0–10 cm, 10–30 cm, 30–50 cm, 50–80 cm, 80–110 cm), four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The UNet-Gan model demonstrates strong performance in data fusion and downscaling, especially in shallow soil layers. Analysis of the CMIP6_UNet-Gan dataset reveals an overall increasing trend in SM across all layers, with higher rates under more intense emission scenarios. Spatially, moisture increases vary, with significant trends in the western Yangtze and northeastern Yellow River regions. Deeper soils show a slower response to climate change, and seasonal variations indicate that moisture increases are most pronounced in spring and winter, followed by autumn, with the least increase observed in summer. Future projections suggest higher moisture increase rates in the early and late 21st century compared to the mid-century. By the end of this century (2071–2100), compared to the Historical period (1995–2014), the increase in SM across the five depth layers ranges from: 5.5% to 11.5%, 4.6% to 9.2%, 4.3% to 7.5%, 4.5% to 7.5%, and 3.3% to 6.5%, respectively.

Under the ongoing trend of climate warming and increasing humidity on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the Three River Source Region (TRSR) has shown strong sensitivity to global climate change. Its vegetation change is particularly worthy of attention and research. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a key indicator for assessing the growth status of vegetation. However, the insufficiency of existing NDVI datasets in terms of spatiotemporal continuity has limited the accuracy of long-term vegetation change studies. This study proposed a machine learning-based downscaling framework that integrates the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) NDVI data to reconstruct a long-term, high-resolution NDVI dataset. Unlike conventional statistical fusion approaches, the proposed framework employs machine learning-based nonlinear relationships to generate long-term, high-resolution NDVI data. Three machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), LightGBM, and CatBoost—were evaluated. Their performance was validated using the MODIS NDVI as reference, with the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) as evaluation metrics. Based on model comparison, the CatBoost model was identified as the optimal algorithm for spatiotemporal data fusion (R² = 0.9014, RMSE = 0.0674, MAE = 0.0445), significantly outperforming RF and LightGBM models and demonstrating stronger capability for NDVI spatiotemporal reconstruction. Using this model, a long-term, 1 km monthly GIMMS-MODIS NDVI dataset from 1982 to 2014 was successfully reconstructed. On the basis of this dataset, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of vegetation in the TRSR from 1982 to 2014 were systematically analyzed. The research results show that: (1) The constructed long-series high-resolution NDVI dataset has a high consistency with MODIS NDVI data; (2) From 1982 to 2014, the NDVI in the TRSR showed an increasing trend, with an average growth rate of 0.0020/10a (p < 0.05). NDVI showed obvious spatial heterogeneity, characterized by a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest. (3) The Yellow River source exhibited the most evident vegetation recovery, the Yangtze River Source area showed a moderate improvement, whereas the Lancang River Source area displayed little noticeable change. (4) Broad-leaved forests experienced the most significant growth, while cultivated vegetation displayed a marked tendency toward degradation. This study provides both a high-accuracy long-term NDVI product for the TRSR and a methodological foundation for advancing vegetation dynamics research in other high-altitude regions.