We derive the best predictive estimator (BPE) of the fixed parameters under two well-known small area models, the Fay–Herriot model and the nested-error regression model. This leads to a new predic...

The reliability of environmental sampling to quantify Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) based on collector and time was evaluated. Fecal slurry samples were collected using a standardized protocol simultaneously by 2 collectors of different experience levels. Samples were collected from 30 cow pens on 4 dairies every other day on 3 occasions while cow movements between pens were minimal. The 4 study herds had moderate MAP seroprevalence and were housed in free-stall dairies in central California. Results of testing the environmental samples for MAP using PCR and culture were strongly correlated. The reliability of environmental sampling simultaneously by different collectors as estimated by the intraclass correlation coefficient was excellent (81%) for PCR and good (67%) for culture and may justify comparison of quantitative results of samples collected by different investigators. The reliability of environmental sampling over a 5-d period was good (67 and 64% for PCR and culture results, respectively), which justifies the utility of environmental sampling to identify pens with a high MAP bioburden between routine cow pen changes on a dairy. Environmental sampling of free-stall pens using the standardized sampling protocol yielded comparable PCR and culture results across collectors with different experience levels and at different times within a 5-d period.

We extend the observed best prediction (OBP; Jiang, Nguyen, and Rao 2011) method to small area estimation when the responses are counts at the area level. We show via a simulation study that the OBP outperforms the empirical best prediction method when the underlying model is misspecified. A bootstrap method is proposed for estimating the area-specific mean squared prediction error of the OBP conditioning on the small area mean counts. Two real data examples are considered.

Background: The use of Chinese‐origin macaques in biomedical research is problematic for some scientists because of the reported behavioral and physiological differences from those of Indian origin. However, few studies have examined the effects of varying degrees of Chinese ancestry (DCA) on behavior, and they were typically based on small sample sizes and unusual rearing conditions.Methods: Using data from a colony‐wide program, we examined whether DCA was related to behavior and temperament ratings reflecting emotionality (fearfulness, aggression, and anxiety) and activity. The 249 subjects, born and reared in an outdoor social environment, were separated from their groups for a 25‐h period of indoor testing. Their DCA (range: 0.6–99.4%) was determined by analyzing the frequency of short tandem repeat alleles.Results and Conclusions: The major effect of DCA was on fearfulness, with the more hybridized animals scoring lowest and the more pure Indian‐ and Chinese‐origin macaques resembling each other.