A high penetration of wind energy into the electricity market requires a parallel development of efficient wind power forecasting models. Different hybrid forecasting methods were applied to wind power prediction, using historical data and numerical weather predictions (NWP). A comparative study was carried out for the prediction of the power production of a wind farm located in complex terrain. The performances of Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) with Wavelet Decomposition (WD) were evaluated at different time horizons and compared to hybrid Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based methods. It is acknowledged that hybrid methods based on LS-SVM with WD mostly outperform other methods. A decomposition of the commonly known root mean square error was beneficial for a better understanding of the origin of the differences between prediction and measurement and to compare the accuracy of the different models. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out in order to underline the impact that each input had in the network training process for ANN. In the case of ANN with the WD technique, the sensitivity analysis was repeated on each component obtained by the decomposition.
The world’s attention is currently focused on the energy transition to sustainable energy. The drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming, energy security, and the generalization of access to energy have contributed to the adoption of the Moroccan Energy Strategy, with a strong focus on renewable energy (RE). Morocco is notoriously poor in conventional primary fossil energy resources, with energy dependence on the order of 90%. In addition, the energy crisis that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, compounded with steady increase in demand, has heavily affected the security and stability of the country’s energy situation. The transition to RE by strongly engaging in the implementation of several solar, wind, and hydro energy projects has made the country the leader in RE in Africa. These projects benefit from the country’s excellent solar and wind energy potential. As a consequence, by 2030, the share of RE in the installed capacity is expected to reach 52%. An overview of the current situation of RE (particularly solar energy) in Morocco is provided, including the potentials, obstacles, challenges, and future perspectives. Thanks to its high solar potential, it is predictable that Morocco’s effort will be focused on this field: the Erasmus plus INNOMED project is a virtuous example of international cooperation, aiming at promoting solar energy through capacity building and the creation of solar energy networks, in synergy with EU Partners.
1 September 2015 in Energy Conversion and Management