Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory offers a systematic, though abstract, way to describe how an organism acquires and uses energy and essential elements for physiological processes, in addition to how physiological performance is influenced by environmental variables such as food density and temperature. A ‘standard’ DEB model describes the performance (growth, development, reproduction, respiration, etc.) of all life stages of an animal (embryo to adult), and predicts both intraspecific and interspecific variation in physiological rates. This approach contrasts with a long tradition of more phenomenological and parameter-rich bioenergetic models that are used to make predictions from species-specific rate measurements. These less abstract models are widely used in fisheries studies; they are more readily interpretable than DEB models, but lack the generality of DEB models. We review the interconnections between the two approaches and present formulae relating the state variables and fluxes in the standard DEB model to measured bioenergetic rate processes. We illustrate this synthesis for two large fishes: Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) and Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). For each, we have a parameter-sparse, full-life-cycle DEB model that requires adding only a few species-specific features to the standard model. Both models allow powerful integration of knowledge derived from data restricted to certain life stages, processes and environments.

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.