Due to the complex interaction of urban and mountainous floods, assessing flood susceptibility in mountainous urban areas presents a challenging task in environmental research and risk analysis. Data-driven machine learning methods can evaluate flood susceptibility in mountainous urban areas lacking essential hydrological data, utilizing remote sensing data and limited historical inundation records. In this study, two ensemble learning algorithms, Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost, were adopted to assess the flood susceptibility of Kunming, a typical mountainous urban area prone to severe flood disasters. A flood inventory was created using flood observations from 2018 to 2022. The spatial database included 10 explanatory factors, encompassing climatic, geomorphic, and anthropogenic factors. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were selected for model comparison. To minimize the influence of expert opinions on model training, this study employed a strategy of uniformly random sampling in historically non-flooded areas for negative sample selection. The results demonstrated that (1) ensemble learning algorithms offer higher accuracy than other machine learning methods, with RF achieving the highest accuracy, evidenced by an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.87, followed by XGBoost at 0.84, surpassing both ANN (0.83) and SVM (0.82); (2) the interpretability of ensemble learning highlighted the differences in the potential distribution of the training data’s positive and negative samples. Feature importance in ensemble learning can be utilized to minimize human bias in the collection of flooded-site samples, more targeted flood susceptibility maps of the study area’s road network were obtained; and (3) ensemble learning algorithms exhibited greater stability and robustness in datasets with varied negative samples, as evidenced by their performance in F1-Score, Kappa, and AUC metrics. This paper further substantiates the superiority of ensemble learning in flood susceptibility assessment tasks from the perspectives of accuracy, interpretability, and robustness, enhances the understanding of the impact of negative samples on such assessments, and optimizes the specific process for urban flood susceptibility assessment using data-driven methods.

Numerical simulation models are commonly used to analyze and simulate urban waterlogging risk. However, the computational efficiency of numerical models is too low to meet the requirements of urban emergency management. In this study, a new method was established by combining a long short-term memory neural network model with a numerical model, which can quickly predict the waterlogging depth of a city. First, a numerical model was used to simulate and calculate the ponding depth of each ponding point under different rainfall schemes. Using the simulation results as training samples, the long short-term memory neural network was trained to predict and simulate the waterlogging process. The results showed that the proposed “double model” prediction model appropriately reflected the relationship between the changes in waterlogging depth and the temporal and spatial changes in rainfall, and the accuracy and speed of computation were higher than those of the numerical model alone. The simulation speed of the “double model” was 324,000 times that of the numerical model alone. The proposed “double model” method provides a new idea for the application of artificial intelligence technology in the field of disaster prevention and reduction.

In recent years, the frequency and intensity of global extreme weather events have gradually increased, leading to significant changes in urban rainfall patterns. The uneven distribution of rainfall has caused varying degrees of water security issues in different regions. Accurately grasping the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of rainfall is crucial for understanding the hydrological cycle and predicting the availability of water resources. This study collected rainfall data every five minutes from 62 rain gauge stations in the main urban area of Kunming City from 2019 to 2021, constructing an unsupervised hybrid dimensionality reduction-clustering (HDRC) model. The model employs the Locally Linear Embedding (LLE) algorithm from manifold learning for dimensionality reduction of the data samples and uses the dynamic clustering K-Means algorithm for cluster analysis. The results show that the model categorizes the rainfall in the Kunming area into three types: The first type has its rainfall center distributed on the north shore of Dian Lake and the southern part of Kunming’s main urban area, with spatial dynamics showing the rainfall distribution gradually developing from the Dian Lake water body towards the land. The second type’s rainfall center is located in the northern mountainous area of Kunming, with a smaller spatial dynamic change trend. The water vapor has a relatively fixed and concentrated rainfall center due to the orographic uplift effect of the mountains. The third type’s rainfall center is located in the main urban area of Kunming, with this type of rainfall showing smaller variations in all indicators, mainly occurring in May and September when the temperature is lower, related to the urban heat island effect. This research provides a general workflow for spatial rainfall classification, capable of mining the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of regional rainfall based on extensive data and generating typical samples of rainfall types.

Identifying the patterns of rainstorms is essential for improving the precision and accuracy of flood forecasts and constructing flood disaster prevention systems. In this study, we used a manifold learning algorithm method of machine learning to analyze rainstorm patterns. We analyzed the spatial–temporal characteristics of heavy rain in Beijing and Shenzhen. The results showed a strong correlation between the spatial–temporal pattern of rainstorms and underlying topography in Beijing. However, in Shenzhen, the spatial–temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorms were more closely related to the source of water vapor causing the rainfall, and the variation in characteristics was more complex and diverse. This method may be used to quantitatively describe the development and dynamic spatial–temporal patterns of rainfall. In this study, we found that spatial–temporal rainfall distribution characteristics, extracted by machine learning technology could be explained by physical mechanisms consistent with the climatic characteristics and topographic conditions of the region.

Cities along rivers are threatened by floods and waterlogging, and the relationship between rainstorms and floods is complex. The temporal and spatial distributions of rainstorms directly affect flood characteristics. The location of the rainstorm center determines the flood peaks, volumes, and processes. In this study, machine learning algorithms were introduced to analyze the rain–flood relationship in Luzhou City, Sichuan Province, China. The spatial and temporal patterns of rainstorms in the region were classified and extracted, and flood characteristics generated by various types of rainstorms were analyzed. In the first type, the center of the rainstorm was in the upper reaches of the Tuojiang River, and the resulting flood caused negligible damage to Luzhou. In the second type, the center of the rainstorm occurred in the Yangtze River Basin. Continuously high water levels in the Yangtze River, combined with local rainfall, supported urban drainage. In the third type, the rainstorm center occurred in the upper reaches of the Yangtze and Tuojiang rivers. During the flooding, rainfall from Yangtze River and Tuojiang River moved towards Luzhou together. The movement of the rainstorm center was consistent with the flood routing direction of the Yangtze and Tuojiang rivers, both of which continued to have high water levels. The flood risk is extremely high in this case, making it the riskiest rainfall process requiring prevention.

Small reservoirs in hilly areas serve as critical water conservancy infrastructure, playing an essential role in flood control, irrigation, and regional water security. However, dam-break events pose significant risks to downstream urban areas, threatening the sustainability and resilience of cities. This study takes Guangyuan City as a case study and employs numerical simulation methods—including dam-break modeling, hydrological modeling, and hydrodynamic modeling—to analyze the impact of dam-break floods on downstream urban regions. The results reveal that dam failure in small reservoirs can cause peak flood velocities exceeding 15 m/s, severely endangering urban infrastructure, ecosystems, and public safety. Additionally, for reservoirs with large catchment areas, dam-break floods combined with rainfall-induced flash floods may create compound disaster effects, intensifying urban flood risks. These findings underscore the importance of sustainable reservoir management and integrated flood risk strategies to enhance urban resilience and reduce disaster vulnerability. This research contributes to sustainable development by providing scientific insights and practical support for flood risk mitigation and resilient infrastructure planning in mountainous regions.