Mangrove forests dominate the world's tropical and subtropical coastlines. Similar to other plant communities, nutrient availability is one of the major factors influencing mangrove forest structure and productivity. Many mangrove soils have extremely low nutrient availability, although nutrient availability can vary greatly among and within mangrove forests. Nutrient-conserving processes in mangroves are well developed and include evergreeness, resorption of nutrients prior to leaf fall, the immobilization of nutrients in leaf litter during decomposition, high root/shoot ratios and the repeated use of old root channels. Both nitrogen-use efficiency and nutrient resorption efficiencies in mangroves are amongst the highest recorded for angiosperms. A complex range of interacting abiotic and biotic factors controls the availability of nutrients to mangrove trees, and mangroves are characteristically plastic in their ability to opportunistically utilize nutrients when these become available. Nitrogen and phosphorus have been implicated as the nutrients most likely to limit growth in mangroves. Ammonium is the primary form of nitrogen in mangrove soils, in part as a result of anoxic soil conditions, and tree growth is supported mainly by ammonium uptake. Nutrient enrichment is a major threat to marine ecosystems. Although mangroves have been proposed to protect the marine environment from land-derived nutrient pollution, nutrient enrichment can have negative consequences for mangrove forests and their capacity for retention of nutrients may be limited.

© 2016 Elsevier B.V.The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756 × 103 km2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85 km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50 cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46-59% of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78% is estimated under high sea-level rise (110 cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29 cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50% of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional response) on low-lying coasts.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.01

Recent evidence indicates that climate change and intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has increased variation in sea level. Although widespread impacts on intertidal ecosystems are anticipated to arise from the sea level seesaw associated with climate change, none have yet been demonstrated. Intertidal ecosystems, including mangrove forests are among those ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, but they may also be vulnerable to sea level variability and extreme low sea level events. During 16 years of monitoring of a mangrove forest in Mangrove Bay in north Western Australia, we documented two forest dieback events, the most recent one being coincident with the large-scale dieback of mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia. Diebacks in Mangrove Bay were coincident with periods of very low sea level, which were associated with increased soil salinization of 20–30% above pre-event levels, leading to canopy loss, reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and reduced recruitment. Our study indicates that an intensification of ENSO will have negative effects on some mangrove forests in parts of the Indo-Pacific that will exacerbate other pressures.