Orthotropic steel decks (OSDs) are inevitably subjected to fatigue damage caused by cycled vehicle loads in long-span bridges. This study establishes a probabilistic analysis framework integrating the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) and fracture mechanics to model the fatigue crack propagation considering mutual correlations among multiple fatigue details. Both the observations of fatigue crack length from field inspection and monitoring data of vehicle loads from the weight-in-motion (WIM) system are utilized. First, fracture mechanics-based uncertainty analysis is performed to determine the multiple uncertainty sources in the Paris crack propagation model, material property, and observation data of crack length. The uncertainty of monitoring data of vehicle loads is ignored because of its high accuracy; consequently, the vehicle-load-related uncertainty is spontaneously ignored, which is also demonstrated to be very small on the investigated actual bridges. Second, a hierarchical DBN model is introduced to construct mutual dependencies among various uncertainties and intra-correlations in the propagation process of multiple fatigue cracks at different components. Third, a stochastic traffic model is established based on the WIM monitoring data and multi-scale finite element analysis via substructure techniques to determine the probability distribution of vehicle-load-related parameters. After variable discretization, a refined exact inference algorithm in a forward–backward–forward manner is adopted to estimate the posterior distribution of equivalent initial crack length and update the established DBN model. Finally, the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical case study and a typical application on an actual cable-stayed bridge with steel box girders using OSDs in China. The results show that the probability distribution of equivalent initial crack size can be spontaneously derived with a larger mean value than the results of conventional empirical analysis. Furthermore, the component-level fatigue reliability is tracked and predicted based on the established crack propagation model.

Urban railway track infrastructures often suffer from damage that affects their service performance due to a variety of factors. In this study, an unsupervised feature selection and damage identification method based on globally sparse probabilistic principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed for urban railway tracks using the monitoring data of train-induced dynamic responses. A Bayesian framework is proposed for generating principal components on a basis of vectors (original variables) with a global sparseness pattern instead of separate patterns in a traditional sparse PCA. In this framework, a variational expectation-maximization algorithm is employed to obtain the tractable calculation of the marginal likelihood function for learning all uncertain parameters of the Bayesian model. The obtained principal components are linear combinations of the very same set of important variables, making our method better interpretable than the traditional sparse PCA. We can clearly understand which original variables are most relevant for describing the data. The track damage is identified simply by discriminating the corresponding measured dynamic responses using the binary elements of the latent vector inferred from the Bayesian globally sparse PCA algorithm. The usefulness is demonstrated by successfully identifying the track bed plate crack damage through the actual train-induced dynamic responses collected from the structural health monitoring system of an urban railway track infrastructure, where the method is able to achieve $F_1$ scores of 90% or higher for various scenarios.