Summary: Background and objectives: Although AKI is common among hospitalized children, comprehensive epidemiologic data are lacking. This study characterizes pediatric AKI across the United States and identifies AKI risk factors using high-content/high-throughput analytic techniques.Design, setting, participants, & measurements: For the cross-sectional analysis of the 2009 Kids Inpatient Database, AKI events were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Demographics, incident rates, and outcome data were analyzed and reported for the entire AKI cohort as well as AKI subsets. Statistical learning methods were applied to the highly imbalanced dataset to derive AKI-related risk factors.Results: Of 2,644,263 children, 10,322 children developed AKI (3.9/1000 admissions). Although 19% of the AKI cohort was ≤1 month old, the highest incidence was seen in children 15–18 years old (6.6/1000 admissions); 49% of the AKI cohort was white, but AKI incidence was higher among African Americans (4.5 versus 3.8/1000 admissions). In-hospital mortality among patients with AKI was 15.3% but higher among children ≤1 month old (31.3% versus 10.1%,P<0.001) and children requiring critical care (32.8% versus 9.4%,P<0.001) or dialysis (27.1% versus 14.2%,P<0.001). Shock (odds ratio, 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.95 to 2.36), septicemia (odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.32 to 1.43), intubation/mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 1.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 1.25), circulatory disease (odds ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.32 to 1.65), cardiac congenital anomalies (odds ratio, 1.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.13 to 1.23), and extracorporeal support (odds ratio, 2.58; 95% confidence interval, 2.04 to 3.26) were associated with AKI.Conclusions: AKI occurs in 3.9/1000 at-risk US pediatric hospitalizations. Mortality is highest among neonates and children requiring critical care or dialysis. Identified risk factors suggest that AKI occurs in association with systemic/multiorgan disease more commonly than primary renal disease.

Journal of Medical Internet Research - International Scientific Journal for Medical Research, Information and Communication on the Internet

Suicide is the tenth leading cause of death in the United States (US). An early-warning system (EWS) for suicide attempt could prove valuable for identifying those at risk of suicide attempts, and analyzing the contribution of repeated attempts to the risk of eventual death by suicide. In this study we sought to develop an EWS for high-risk suicide attempt patients through the development of a population-based risk stratification surveillance system. Advanced machine-learning algorithms and deep neural networks were utilized to build models with the data from electronic health records (EHRs). A final risk score was calculated for each individual and calibrated to indicate the probability of a suicide attempt in the following 1-year time period. Risk scores were subjected to individual-level analysis in order to aid in the interpretation of the results for health-care providers managing the at-risk cohorts. The 1-year suicide attempt risk model attained an area under the curve (AUC ROC) of 0.792 and 0.769 in the retrospective and prospective cohorts, respectively. The suicide attempt rate in the “very high risk” category was 60 times greater than the population baseline when tested in the prospective cohorts. Mental health disorders including depression, bipolar disorders and anxiety, along with substance abuse, impulse control disorders, clinical utilization indicators, and socioeconomic determinants were recognized as significant features associated with incident suicide attempt.

Predicting the risk of falls in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce mortality and morbidity in the older population. The aim of this study was to construct and validate an electronic health record-based fall risk predictive tool to identify elders at a higher risk of falls. The one-year fall prediction model was developed using the machine-learning-based algorithm, XGBoost, and tested on an independent validation cohort. The data were collected from electronic health records (EHR) of Maine from 2016 to 2018, comprising 265,225 older patients (≥65 years of age). This model attained a validated C-statistic of 0.807, where 50 % of the identified high-risk true positives were confirmed to fall during the first 94 days of next year. The model also captured in advance 58.01 % and 54.93 % of falls that happened within the first 30 and 30-60 days of next year. The identified high-risk patients of fall showed conditions of severe disease comorbidities, an enrichment of fall-increasing cardiovascular and mental medication prescriptions and increased historical clinical utilization, revealing the complexity of the underlying fall etiology. The XGBoost algorithm captured 157 impactful predictors into the final predictive model, where cognitive disorders, abnormalities of gait and balance, Parkinson's disease, fall history and osteoporosis were identified as the top-5 strongest predictors of the future fall event. By using the EHR data, this risk assessment tool attained an improved discriminative ability and can be immediately deployed in the health system to provide automatic early warnings to older adults with increased fall risk and identify their personalized risk factors to facilitate customized fall interventions.

Among patients who are discharged from the Emergency Department (ED), about 3% return within 30 days. Revisits can be related to the nature of the disease, medical errors, and/or inadequate diagnoses and treatment during their initial ED visit. Identification of high-risk patient population can help device new strategies for improved ED care with reduced ED utilization. A decision tree based model with discriminant Electronic Medical Record (EMR) features was developed and validated, estimating patient ED 30 day revisit risk. A retrospective cohort of 293,461 ED encounters from HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange (HIE), between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2012, was assembled with the associated patients' demographic information and one-year clinical histories before the discharge date as the inputs. To validate, a prospective cohort of 193,886 encounters between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013 was constructed. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective predictions were 0.710 and 0.704 respectively. Clinical resource utilization, including ED use, was analyzed as a function of the ED risk score. Cluster analysis of high-risk patients identified discrete sub-populations with distinctive demographic, clinical and resource utilization patterns. Our ED 30-day revisit model was prospectively validated on the Maine State HIN secure statewide data system. Future integration of our ED predictive analytics into the ED care work flow may lead to increased opportunities for targeted care intervention to reduce ED resource burden and overall healthcare expense, and improve outcomes.

Journal of Medical Internet Research - International Scientific Journal for Medical Research, Information and Communication on the Internet #Preprint #PeerReviewMe: Warning: This is a unreviewed preprint. Readers are warned that the document has not been peer-reviewed by expert/patient reviewers or an academic editor, may contain misleading claims, and is likely to undergo changes before final publication, if accepted, or may have been rejected/withdrawn. Readers with interest and expertise are encouraged to sign up as peer-reviewer, if the paper is within an open peer-review period. Please cite this preprint only for review purposes or for grant applications and CVs (if you are the author). Background: Some hospitalized patients rapidly deteriorate due to either disease progression or imperfect triage and level of care assignment after their admission. An EWS to identify patients at high risk of subsequent intra-hospital death can be an effective tool to benefit patient safety and quality of care, and also reduce avoidable harm and costs. Objective: To prospectively validate a real-time early warning system (EWS) with the capacity to predict patients at high risk of in-hospital mortality during their inpatient episodes. Methods: Data were collected from the system-wide electronic medical record (EMR) of two acute Berkshire Health System hospitals, comprised of 54,246 inpatient admissions from January 01, 2015 to September 30, 2017, of which 3.97% resulted in intra-hospital deaths. After constructing the model using statistical methods and modern machine learning algorithms, we prospectively validated the algorithms as a real-time inpatient early warning system (EWS) for mortality. Results: Our EWS algorithm scored patients’ daily and long-term risk of in-hospital mortality probability after admission and stratified them into distinct risk groups. In the prospective validation, our EWS prospectively attained a c-statistic of 0.884, where 99 encounters were captured in the highest risk group, 68.69% of which died during the episodes. Furthermore, our real-time EWS successfully forecasted the top 13.33% of the expired patients at least 40.8 hours before death. Important clinical utilization features, together with coded diagnoses, vital signs and laboratory test results were recognized as impactful predictors in the final EWS. Conclusions: In this study, we prospectively demonstrated our new EWS’s capability of real-time monitoring and alerting clinicians to patients at high risk of in-hospital death, providing opportunities for timely interventions. This real-time EWS is able to assist clinical decision making and enable more actionable and effective individualized care for better patients’ health outcomes in target medical facilities.