We give an overview of a complex systems approach to large blackouts of electric power transmission systems caused by cascading failure. Instead of looking at the details of particular blackouts, we study the statistics and dynamics of series of blackouts with approximate global models. Blackout data from several countries suggest that the frequency of large blackouts is governed by a power law. The power law makes the risk of large blackouts consequential and is consistent with the power system being a complex system designed and operated near a critical point. Power system overall loading or stress relative to operating limits is a key factor affecting the risk of cascading failure. Power system blackout models and abstract models of cascading failure show critical points with power law behavior as load is increased. To explain why the power system is operated near these critical points and inspired by concepts from self-organized criticality, we suggest that power system operating margins evolve slowly to near a critical point and confirm this idea using a power system model. The slow evolution of the power system is driven by a steady increase in electric loading, economic pressures to maximize the use of the grid, and the engineering responses to blackouts that upgrade the system. Mitigation of blackout risk should account for dynamical effects in complex self-organized critical systems. For example, some methods of suppressing small blackouts could ultimately increase the risk of large blackouts.

Cascading failures in large-scale electric power transmission systems are an important cause of blackouts. Analysis of North American blackout data has revealed power law (algebraic) tails in the blackout size probability distribution which suggests a dynamical origin. With this observation as motivation, we examine cascading failure in a simplified transmission system model as load power demand is increased. The model represents generators, loads, the transmission line network, and the operating limits on these components. Two types of critical points are identified and are characterized by transmission line flow limits and generator capability limits, respectively. Results are obtained for tree networks of a regular form and a more realistic 118-node network. It is found that operation near critical points can produce power law tails in the blackout size probability distribution similar to those observed. The complex nature of the solution space due to the interaction of the two critical points is examined.

This is a review of what is known about fluctuations and anomalous transport processes in tokamaks. It mostly considers experimental results obtained after, and not included in, the reviews of Liewer [Nucl. Fusion 2 5, 543 (1985)], Robinson [in Turbulence and Anomalous Transport in Magnetized Plasmas (Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France, 1986), p. 21], and Surko [in Turbulence and Anomalous Transport in Magnetized Plasmas (Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France, 1986), p. 93]. Therefore much of the pioneering work in the field is not covered. Emphasis is placed on results where comparisons between fluctuations and transport properties have been attempted, particularly from the tokamak TEXT [Nucl. Technol./Fusion 1, 479 (1981)]. A brief comparison of experimentally measured total fluxes with the predictions of neoclassical theory demonstrates that transport is often anomalous; fluctuations are thought to be the cause. The measurements necessary to determine any such fluctuation‐driven fluxes are described. The diagnostics used to measure these quantities, together with some of the statistical techniques employed to analyze the data, are outlined. In the plasma edge detailed measurements of the quantities required to directly determine the fluctuation‐driven fluxes are available. The total and fluctuation‐driven fluxes are compared: the result emphasizes the importance of edge turbulence. No model adequately describes all the measured properties. In the confinement region experimental observations are presently restricted to measurements of density and potential fluctuations and their correlations. Various distinct turbulence features that have been observed are described, and their characteristics compared with the predictions of various models. Correlations observed between these fluctuations and plasma transport properties are summarized. A separate section on magnetic fluctuations shows there is very little information available inside the plasma, generally prohibiting quantified comparisons between fluctuation levels and transport. Both coherent and turbulent magnetic fluctuations are addressed, and the differences between low and high plasma pressure (low and high beta) are noted. The contributions of alternate confinement devices, such as stellarators and reversed field pinches, to understanding tokamak anomalous transport are discussed. Finally, future directions are proposed.

We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC). The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and rescaled range analysis of the time series shows moderate long-time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time series from a sandpile model known to be self-organized critical gives results of the same form. Thus, the blackout data seem consistent with SOC. A qualitative explanation of the complex dynamics observed in electric power system blackouts is suggested.

We propose an analytically tractable model of loading-dependent cascading failure that captures some of the salient features of large blackouts of electric power transmission systems. This leads to a new application and derivation of the quasibinomial distribution and its generalization to a saturating form with an extended parameter range. The saturating quasibinomial distribution of the number of failed components has a power-law region at a critical loading and a significant probability of total failure at higher loadings.