Understanding the relationship between land use/land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) has long been an area of interest in urban and environmental study fields. To examine this, existing studies have utilized both white-box and black-box approaches, including regression, decision tree, and artificial intelligence models. To overcome the limitations of previous models, this study adopted the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach in examining the relationships between LULC and LST. By integrating the XGBoost and SHAP model, we developed the LST prediction model in Seoul and estimated the LST reduction effects after specific LULC changes. Results showed that the prediction accuracy of LST was maximized when landscape, topographic, and LULC features within a 150 m buffer radius were adopted as independent variables. Specifically, the existence of surrounding built-up and vegetation areas were found to be the most influencing factors in explaining LST. In this study, after the LULC changes from expressway to green areas, approximately 1.5 °C of decreasing LST was predicted. The findings of our study can be utilized for assessing and monitoring the thermal environmental impact of urban planning and projects. Also, this study can contribute to determining the priorities of different policy measures for improving the thermal environment.
Unplanned and rapid urban growth requires the reckless expansion of infrastructure including water, sewage, energy, and transportation facilities, and thus causes environmental problems such as deterioration of old towns, reduction of open spaces, and air pollution. To alleviate and prevent such problems induced by urban growth, the accurate prediction and management of urban expansion is crucial. In this context, this study aims at modeling and predicting urban expansion in Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea, using GIS and XAI techniques. To this end, we examined the effects of land-cover, socio-economic, and environmental features in 2007 and 2019, within the optimal radius from a certain raster cell. Then, this study combined the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) in analyzing urban expansion. The findings of this study suggest urban growth is dominantly affected by land-cover characteristics, followed by topographic attributes. In addition, the existence of water body and high ECVAM grades tend to significantly reduce the possibility of urban expansion. The findings of this study are expected to provide several policy implications in urban and environmental planning fields, particularly for effective and sustainable management of lands.
Over the past few decades, most cities worldwide have experienced a rapid expansion with unprecedented population growth and industrialization. Currently, half of the world’s population is living in urban areas, which only account for less than 1% of the Earth. A rapid and unplanned urban expansion, however, has also resulted in serious challenges to sustainable development of the cities, such as traffic congestion and loss of natural environment and open spaces. This study aims at modeling and predicting the expansion of urban areas in South Korea by utilizing an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model. To this end, the study utilized the land-cover maps in 2007 and 2019, as well as several socioeconomic, physical, and environmental attributes. The findings of this study suggest that the urban expansion tends to be promoted when a certain area is close to economically developed area with gentle topography. In addition, the existence of mountainous area and legislative regulations on land use were found to significantly reduce the possibility of urban expansion. Compared to previous studies, this study is novel in that it captures the relative importance of various influencing factors in predicting the urban expansion by integrating the XGBoost model and SHAP values.
Abnormal climate phenomena caused by climate change are becoming more frequent and causing growing environmental, social, and economic damage. This has led to the expectation of further discussion and movements related to climate justice both domestically and internationally. Accordingly, research evaluating and analyzing climate justice is necessary. Therefore, this study seeks to conduct climate justice analysis for local governments in Korea. An analysis of climate justice was carried out for all local governments in Korea, focusing on the heatwave among abnormal climate phenomena caused by climate change. In order to discover climate injustice in each region, local governments with higher levels of vulnerability and exposure indicators among heatwave-prone areas were identified. Urban areas with a high population density, a large total population, a low urban green plot ratio, and a high urbanization area ratio were most likely to be climate injustice areas. Also, some local governments with climate injustice have a higher number of recipients of basic living support but fewer emergency medical facilities and cooling shelters compared to other local governments. Local governments that are vulnerable to climate injustice should be prioritized in terms of receiving support to address these inequalities, in order to provide services for climate-vulnerable groups suffering from climate crises caused by climate change.
We investigate the dynamic interplay between air pollution (PM10) and income and their joint association with quarterly sales in commercial alleys, focusing on the pre-COVID-19 (2018–2019) and COVID-19 (2020–2021) periods in Seoul, South Korea. The objective of this study is to identify how air pollution and income collectively influence consumer spending patterns by looking at the increase and decrease in sales in commercial alleys, with a focus on contrasting these effects before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, utilizing advanced machine learning techniques for deeper insights. Using machine learning techniques, including random forest, extreme gradient boosting, catboost, and lightGBM, and employing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), this study identifies shifts in the significance of predictor variables, particularly PM10, before and during the pandemic. The results show that before the pandemic, PM10 played a notable role in shaping sales predictions, highlighting the sensitivity of sales to air quality. However, during the pandemic, the importance of PM10 decreased significantly, highlighting the transformative indirect impact of external events on consumer behavior. This study also examines the joint association of PM10 and income with sales, revealing distinctive patterns in consumer responses to air quality changes during the pandemic. These findings highlight the need for dynamic modeling to capture evolving consumer behavior and provide valuable insights for businesses and policymakers navigating changing economic and environmental conditions. While this study’s focus is on a specific region and time frame, the findings emphasize the importance of adaptability in predictive models and contribute to understanding the complex interplay between environmental and economic factors in shaping consumer spending behavior.