Crocodile lizards (Shinisaurus crocodilurus) are an endangered, ‘living fossil’ reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile lizards for the period 2000 to 2100 and determined the key environmental factors that affect the dispersal of this endangered species. For the construction of climatic models, we used 985 presence-only data points and 6 predictor variables which showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.974). The three top-ranked factors predicting crocodile lizard distribution were precipitation of the wettest month (bio13, 37.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 17.9%), and temperature seasonality (bio4, 14.3%). Crocodile lizards were, just as they are now, widely distributed in the north of Guangdong Province in China and Quảng Ninh Province in Vietnam at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Since the LGM, there has been an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in east-central Guangxi Province, China. Under future global warming scenarios, the potential habitat for crocodile lizards is expected to decrease significantly in the next 100 years. Under the most optimistic scenario, only 7.35% to 6.54% of suitable habitat will remain, and under the worst climatic scenario, only 8.34% to 0.86% of suitable habitat will remain. Models for no dispersal and limited dispersal showed that all crocodile lizards would lose habitat as temperatures increase. Our work contributes to an increased understanding of the current and future spatial distribution of the species, supporting practical management and conservation plans.

The over‐exploitation of land resources poses a serious threat to biodiversity on a global scale. Changes in land‐use and human exploitation have had a major impact on wild populations and their habitat in China. We assessed how habitat quality has changed over time (1995–2020). Specifically, we analyzed how the habitat quality of crocodile lizard has changed over time based on multi‐temporal land‐use data (1995, 2000, 2010, 2015 and 2020) using a land‐use transfer matrix and habitat quality model. The results showed that the main landscape types in the study area were arable land (21.21% of the area) and woodland (69.59% of the area) during the period. Construction land (land used for development) had decreased by 991 km², a decrease rate of 59.84% from 1995 to 2000, and increased to 2349 km², an increase rate of 71.69% from 2000 to 2020. The proportion of grasslands and areas with water were negligible and overall, did not vary significantly in size over the study period. The main feature of land use change in the study area was the loss of grasslands and woodlands through development. The habitat quality model indicated that habitat quality was highest and degradation was lowest in Dayao mountain, Guxiu town, Qichong village and Beituo town. Habitat quality improved in Daguishan and Luokeng areas. Habitat quality was good in Daping mountain and Linzhouding, but they were highly fragmented with patches of low‐quality habitat of varying sizes. Habitats were severely degraded in the Dateng Gorge area. The rate of habitat degradation has slowed over time in the study area, but gradually increased in degradation intensity, and low‐quality habitats were widely distributed and overlapped with the crocodile lizards distribution area. We recommend that protected areas for the crocodile lizard be more closely monitored and managed to halt further decline in habitat quality.

Global warming significantly impacts amphibian populations globally, and modeling helps understand these effects. Here, we used MaxEnt and MigClim models to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for Hoplobatrachus chinensis. Our results indicate that temperature is a key factor affecting H. chinensis distribution. Increasing temperatures positively correlated with habitat suitability, with suitable habitat expanding northward by 2060 while maintaining suitability in the southern parts of the range. We found a 25.18% overlap between the current potential suitable habitat of H. chinensis and agricultural wetlands. Our model indicated that H. chinensis might be able to track shifts in suitable habitats under climate change given a 15 km dispersal ability per generation. Climate change will likely expand suitable habitat for H. chinensis. Our predictions offer important guidance for the conservation of the species, especially for the integrated role of natural and agricultural wetlands such as rice paddies.

Amphibian misidentification within the commercial wildlife trade represents a growing challenge for biodiversity conservation and wildlife regulation. Morphologically similar species are frequently traded under incorrect names, which can obscure conservation status, facilitate illegal trade, and mislead consumers. We purchased four specimens advertised as Hoplobatrachus chinensis , a widespread farmed species, from an online marketplace in China. Because of their unexpected morphology upon reception, we barcoded them with a widely used tyrosinase ( TYR ) gene marker. We reconstructed a Bayesian inference-based phylogeny using a final dataset consisting of 572 bp from 51 homologous TYR sequences. The resulting tree clustered all four samples within the Quasipaa spinosa clade with high posterior probabilities (>0.99), rather than H. chinensis as advertised. This finding indicates that a protected species has been misidentified and traded despite China’s wildlife trade regulations. The case underscores the urgent need for accurate taxonomic identification tools for traders to prevent such misidentifications and stricter amphibian trade regulations to curb the ongoing illegal trade of threatened taxa.