A devastating tsunami struck Palu Bay in the wake of the 28 September 2018 M_w = 7.5 Palu earthquake (Sulawesi, Indonesia). With a predominantly strike‐slip mechanism, the question remains whether this unexpected tsunami was generated by the earthquake itself, or rather by earthquake‐induced landslides. In this study we examine the tsunami potential of the co‐seismic deformation. To this end, we present a novel geodetic data set of Global Positioning System and multiple Synthetic Aperture Radar‐derived displacement fields to estimate a 3D co‐seismic surface deformation field. The data reveal a number of fault bends, conforming to our interpretation of the tectonic setting as a transtensional basin. Using a Bayesian framework, we provide robust finite fault solutions of the co‐seismic slip distribution, incorporating several scenarios of tectonically feasible fault orientations below the bay. These finite fault scenarios involve large co‐seismic uplift (>2 m) below the bay due to thrusting on a restraining fault bend that connects the offshore continuation of two parallel onshore fault segments. With the co‐seismic displacement estimates as input we simulate a number of tsunami cases. For most locations for which video‐derived tsunami waveforms are available our models provide a qualitative fit to leading wave arrival times and polarity. The modeled tsunamis explain most of the observed runup. We conclude that co‐seismic deformation was the main driver behind the tsunami that followed the Palu earthquake. Our unique geodetic data set constrains vertical motions of the sea floor, and sheds new light on the tsunamigenesis of strike‐slip faults in transtensional basins.

The Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum 2000 (PMGVD2000) inherited several deficiencies due to offsets between local datums used, levelling error propagations, land subsidence, sea level rise, and sea level slopes along the southern half of the Malacca Strait on the west coast and the South China Sea in the east coast of the Peninsular relative to the Port Klang (PTK) datum point. To cater for a more reliable elevation-based assessment of both sea level rise and coastal flooding exposure, a new epoch-based height reference system PMGVD2022 has been developed. We have undertaken the processing of more than 30 years of sea level data from twelve tide gauge (TG) stations along the Peninsular Malaysia coast for the determination of the relative mean sea level (RMSL) at epoch 2022.0 with their respective trends and incorporates the quantification of the local vertical land motion (VLM) impact. PMGVD2022 is based on a new gravimetric geoid (PMGeoid2022) fitted to the RMSL at PTK. The orthometric height is realised through the GNSS levelling concept H = h^GNSS–N^fit_PTK–N_RMDT, where N_RMDT is a constant offset due to the relative mean dynamic ocean topography (RMDT) between the fitted geoid at PTK and the local MSL datums along the Peninsular Malaysia coast. PMGVD2022 will become a single height reference system with absolute accuracies of better than ±3 cm and ±10 cm across most of the land/coastal area and the continental shelf of Peninsular Malaysia, respectively.

Absolute sea-level rise has become an important topic globally due to climate change. In addition, relative sea-level rise due to the vertical land motion in coastal areas can have a big societal impact. Vertical land motion (VLM) in Southeast Asia includes a tectonically induced component: uplift and subsidence in plate boundary zones where both Peninsular and East Malaysia are located. In this paper, the relative sea-level trends and (seismic cycle-induced) temporal changes across Malaysia were investigated. To do so, the data (1984–2019) from 21 tide gauges were analyzed, along with a subset (1994–2021) of nearby Malaysian GNSS stations. Changes in absolute sea level (ASL) at these locations (1992–2021) were also estimated from satellite altimetry data. As a first for Peninsular and East Malaysia, the combination ASL minus VLM was robustly used to validate relative sea-level rise from tide-gauge data and provide relative sea-level trend estimates based on a common data period of 25+ years. A good match between both the remote and in situ sea-level rise estimations was observed, especially for Peninsular Malaysia (differences < 1 mm/year), when split trends were estimated from the tide gauges and GNSS time series to distinguish between the different VLM regimes that exist due to the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman megathrust earthquake. As in the south of Thailand, post-seismic-induced negative VLM has increased relative sea-level rise by 2–3 mm/year along the Andaman Sea and Malacca Strait coastlines since 2005. For East Malaysia, the validation shows higher differences (bias of 2–3 mm/year), but this poorer match is significantly improved by either not including data after 1 January 2014 or applying a generic jump to all East Malay tide gauges from that date onwards. Overall, the present relative sea-level trends range from 4 to 6 mm/year for Malaysia with a few regions showing up to 9 mm/year due to human-induced land subsidence.

Temporal changes in vertical land motion (VLM) in and around Phuket Island in southern Thailand following the great 2004 Sumatra–Andaman megathrust earthquake have impacted the relative sea-level change estimates based on tide-gauge (TG) records. To better monitor the VLM, two new continuous global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations have been installed in the past 5 years, situated on bedrock both near and at the Koh Taphao Noi Island TG in Phuket, which together with older global positioning system (GPS) data provides a clear insight in the VLM of Phuket Island from 1994 onward. In addition, satellite altimetry (SALT) data has been analyzed since 1992. The VLM (GPS) position and relative (TG) and absolute (SALT) sea-level change time series were successfully combined in pairs to validate each independent result (e.g., SALT − GNSS = TG): prior to the 2004 earthquake, the relative sea-level rise in Phuket was 1.0 ± 0.7 mm/yr, lower by 2.4 ± 0.2 mm/yr than the absolute sea-level rise caused by VLM. After the earthquake, nonlinear post-seismic subsidence has caused the VLM to drop by 10 cm in the past 17 years, resulting, by the end of 2020, in a relative sea-level rise by up to 16 cm. During the same period, other TG stations in south Thailand recorded similar sea-level increases. Combination with SALT further suggests that, prior to 2005, uplift (5.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) of the coastal region of Ranong (north of Phuket) resulted in a relative sea-level fall, but since then, post-seismic-induced negative VLM may have significantly increased coastal erosion along the entire Andaman Sea coastline.

The 2018 Palu earthquake is a remarkable strike‐slip event due to its nature as a shallow supershear fault rupture across several segments and a destructive tsunami that followed coseismic deformation. GPS offsets in the wake of the 2018 earthquake display a transient in the surface motions of northwest Sulawesi. A Bayesian approach identifies (predominantly aseismic) deep afterslip on and below the coseismic rupture plane as the dominant physical mechanism causing the cumulative, postseismic, surface displacements whereas viscous relaxation of the lower crust and poro‐elastic rebound contribute negligibly. We confirm a correlation between shallow supershear rupture and postseismic surface transients with afterslip activity in the zone below an interseismically locked fault plane where the slip rate tapers from zero to creeping.