Analysis of in situ and satellite data shows evidence of different regional snow cover responses to the widespread warming and increasing winter precipitation that has characterized the Arctic climate for the past 40–50 years. The largest and most rapid decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover duration (SCD) are observed over maritime regions of the Arctic with the highest precipitation amounts. There is also evidence of marked differences in the response of snow cover between the North American and Eurasian sectors of the Arctic, with the North American sector exhibiting decreases in snow cover and snow depth over the entire period of available in situ observations from around 1950, while widespread decreases in snow cover are not apparent over Eurasia until after around 1980. However, snow depths are increasing in many regions of Eurasia. Warming and more frequent winter thaws are contributing to changes in snow pack structure with important implications for land use and provision of ecosystem services. Projected changes in snow cover from Global Climate Models for the 2050 period indicate increases in maximum SWE of up to 15% over much of the Arctic, with the largest increases (15–30%) over the Siberian sector. In contrast, SCD is projected to decrease by about 10–20% over much of the Arctic, with the smallest decreases over Siberia (<10%) and the largest decreases over Alaska and northern Scandinavia (30–40%) by 2050. These projected changes will have far-reaching consequences for the climate system, human activities, hydrology, and ecology.
Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.
The relation between heat flow through snow and microstructure is crucial for the comprehension and modeling of thermophysical, chemical, and mechanical properties of snow. This relationship was investigated using heat flux measurements combined with a microstructural numerical approach. A snow sample was subjected to a temperature gradient and the passing heat flux was measured. Simultaneously, the snow microstructure was imaged by X‐ray micro‐tomography. The heat flow through the observed ice matrix and its heat conductivity was computed by a finite element method. Comparison of measured and simulated heat conductivities suggests that heat conduction through the ice matrix is predominant. The representative elementary volume with respect to density and heat conductivity as well as the tortuosity factor of the ice matrix was determined. In contrast to the density, the tortuosity factor takes into account the relevant geometry of the ice matrix and has many advantages in heat transfer models.
We present results from cold-laboratory observations of changes in isotopic (δ18O and δD) content by sublimation in snow and ice samples under nearly isothermal conditions. The results show large increases in observed δ18O and δD in snow samples within several centimeters of the surface. They contradict the assumption of a non-changing isotopic content due to layer-by-layer transport mechanisms driven by sublimation/desublimation processes. The data also do not support the idea that isotopic changes of snow and firn are limited by the possibility that the ice matrix incorporates the atmospheric water vapor and that forced water-vapor diffusion in the pore space (wind pumping) is a requirement for isotopic content change. The observations show that sublimation from ice samples results in much lower increases in heavy-isotope content in the first several millimetres near the sublimating surface over the same time period, despite sublimation intensities similar to those of the snow samples. The results suggest that continuous phase transitions inside snow (recrystallization) are the process responsible for the isotopic content change because they are the primary mass-exchange mechanism between the snow mass and the surrounding environment. Modeling the isotopic content of the ice matrix therefore requires inclusion of a two-stage process: fractionation at the ice-matrix surface due to repetitive phase transitions, and fractionation due to preferable diffusion of light water isotopes in the pore space. For interpretation of the observed natural isotopic profiles in snow, the first process can be linked to the time a snow layer undergoes recrystallization, while the second process is related to the total ice/snow mass gain/loss determined by the external environmental conditions.