Understanding the effects of global change and human activities on water supplies depends greatly on surface water dynamics. A comprehensive examination of the hydroclimatic variations at the transboundary level is essential for the development of any adaptation or mitigation plans to deal with the negative effects of climate change. This research paper examines the hydroclimatic factors that contribute to the desiccation of the Doosti Dam’s basin in the transboundary area using multisensor satellite data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The Mann–Kendall and Sens slope estimator test was applied to the satellite datasets to analyse the spatial and temporal variation of the hydroclimate variables and their trend over the transboundary area for 18 years from 2004 to 2021 (as the dam began operating in 2005). Statistical analysis results showed decreasing trends in temperature and an increase in rainfall with respect to station-observed available data. Evapotranspiration and irrigated area development followed the increasing pattern and a slight decrease in snow cover. The results confirmed a large expansion of the irrigated area, especially during the winter growing season. The increase in irrigated cultivated areas during both winter and summer seasons is possibly the main reason for the diversion of water to meet the irrigation requirements of the developed agriculture areas. The approach followed in this study could be applied to any location around the globe to evaluate the hydrological conditions and spatiotemporal changes in response to climate change, trend analysis and human activities.

Due to unavailability of sufficient discharge data for many rivers, an appropriate approach is required to provide accurate data for estimating discharge in ungauged watersheds. In this study, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) datasets were integrated with Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to simulate the outlet river discharge in Polroud watershed, located in the North of Iran. Temperature and precipitation products generated by GLDAS were calibrated using regression analysis based on observation data for the period of 2004–2006. Then, river discharge was simulated by using HEC-HMS based on two different datasets (GLDAS meteorological product and gauged data) on the scale of the basin for the same period. The results clearly indicated that the forcing of GLDAS data into HEC-HMS model leads to promising results with acceptable correlation with observed data. Although, in comparison with direct GLDAS runoff products, the proposed approach improved the accuracy of river discharge, the problem of underestimation still reduces the expected accuracy. Because of global accessibility, GLDAS datasets would be a good alternative in ungauged or poorly gauged watersheds.

The severity and frequency of extremes are changing; thus, it is becoming necessary to evaluate the impacts of land cover changes and urbanisation along with climate change. A framework of the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) method, Google Earth Engine (GEE), and land cover patterns’ classification including Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) can be useful for streamflow impact analysis. For this study, we developed a unique framework consisting of a hydrological model in line with the Process-informed Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis (ProNEVA) GEV model and an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs), mapping land cover patterns using classification methods within the GEE platform. We applied these methods in Southeast Queensland (SEQ) to analyse the maximum instantaneous floods in non-stationary catchment conditions, considering the physical system in terms of cause and effect. Independent variables (DEM, population, slope, roads, and distance from roads) and an integrated RF, SVM methodology were utilised as spatial maps to predict their influences on land cover changes for the near and far future. The results indicated that physical factors significantly influence the layout of landscapes. First, the values of projected evapotranspiration and rainfall were extracted from the multi-model ensemble to investigate the eight GCMs under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The AWBM hydrological model was calibrated with daily streamflow and applied to generate historical runoff for 1990–2010. Runoff was projected under two scenarios for eight GCMs and by incorporating the percentage of each land cover into the hydrological model for two horizons (2020–2065 and 2066–2085). Following that, the ProNEVA model was used to calculate the frequency and magnitude of runoff extremes across the parameter space. The maximum peak flood differences under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 16.90% and 15.18%, respectively. The outcomes of this study suggested that neglecting the non-stationary assumption in flood frequency can lead to underestimating the amounts that can lead to more risks for the related hydraulic structures. This framework is adaptable to various geographical regions to estimate extreme conditions, offering valuable insights for infrastructure design, planning, risk assessment, and the sustainable management of future water resources in the context of long-term water management plans.

The frequency and severity of extremes, including extreme precipitation events, extreme evapotranspiration and extreme water storage deficit events, are changing. Thus, the necessity for developing a framework that estimates non-stationary conditions is urgent. The aim of this paper is to develop a framework using the geeSEBAL platform, Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) models and spatiotemporal analysis techniques that incorporate the physical system in terms of cause and effect. Firstly, the geeSEBAL platform has enabled the estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a) with an unprecedented level of spatial-temporal resolution. Following this, the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) approach employs the Bayesian method using a Differential Evolution Markov Chain technique to calculate the frequency and magnitude of extreme values across the parameter space. Station and global climate datasets have been used to analyse the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall, reference evapotranspiration (ET_o), ET_a and water storage (WS) variables in the Lockyer Valley located in Southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Frequency analysis of rainfall, ET_a, and water storage deficit for 14 stations were performed using a GEV distribution under stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Comparing the ET_a, ET_o and ERA5 rainfall with station data showed reasonable agreement as follows: Pearson correlation of 0.59–0.75 for ET_a, RMSE of 45.23–58.56 mm for ET_a, Pearson correlation of 0.96–0.97 for ET_o, RMSE of 73.13–87.73 mm for ET_o and Pearson correlation of 0.87–0.92 for rainfall and RMSE of 37.53–57.10 mm for rainfall. The lower and upper uncertainty bounds between stationary and non-stationary conditions for rainfall station data of Gatton varied from 550.98 mm (stationary) to 624.97 mm (non-stationary), and for ERA5 rainfall datasets, 441.30 mm (stationary) to 450.77 mm (non-stationary). The results demonstrate that global climate datasets underestimate the difference between stationary and non-stationary conditions by 9.47 mm compared to results of 73.99 mm derived from station data. Similarly, the results demonstrate less variation between stationary and non-stationary conditions in water storage, followed by a sharp variation in rainfall and moderate variation in evapotranspiration. The findings of this study indicate that neglecting the non-stationary condition in some hydrometeorological variables can lead to underestimating their amounts. This framework can be applied to any geographical area for estimating extreme conditions, providing valuable insights for infrastructure planning and design, risk assessment and disaster management.