INTRODUCTION: The influence of El Niño on climate is accompanied by large changes to the carbon cycle, and El Niño–induced variability in the carbon cycle has been attributed mainly to the tropical continents. However, owing to a dearth of observations in the tropics, tropical carbon fluxes are poorly quantified, and considerable debate exists over the dominant mechanisms (e.g., plant growth, respiration, fire) and regions (e.g., humid versus semiarid tropics) on the net carbon balance. RATIONALE: The launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) shortly before the 2015–2016 El Niño, the second strongest since the 1950s, has provided an opportunity to understand how tropical land carbon fluxes respond to the warm and dry climate characteristics of El Niño conditions. The El Niño events may also provide a natural experiment to study the response of tropical land carbon fluxes to future climate changes, because anomalously warm and dry tropical environments typical of El Niño are expected to be more frequent under most emission scenarios. RESULTS: The tropical regions of three continents (South America, Asia, and Africa) had heterogeneous responses to the 2015–2016 El Niño, in terms of both climate drivers and the carbon cycle. The annual mean precipitation over tropical South America and tropical Asia was lower by 3.0σ and 2.8σ, respectively, in 2015 relative to the 2011 La Niña year. Tropical Africa, on the other hand, had near equal precipitation and the same number of dry months between 2015 and 2011; however, surface temperatures were higher by 1.6σ, dominated by the positive anomaly over its eastern and southern regions. In response to the warmer and drier climate anomaly in 2015, the pantropical biosphere released 2.5 ± 0.34 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere than in 2011, which accounts for 83.3% of the global total 3.0–gigatons of carbon (gigatons C) net biosphere flux differences and 92.6% of the atmospheric CO ₂ growth-rate differences between 2015 and 2011. It indicates that the tropical land biosphere flux anomaly was the driver of the highest atmospheric CO ₂ growth rate in 2015. The three tropical continents had an approximately even contribution to the pantropical net carbon flux anomaly in 2015, but had diverse dominant processes: gross primary production (GPP) reduced carbon uptake (0.9 ± 0.96 gigatons C) in tropical South America, fire increased carbon release (0.4 ± 0.08 gigatons C) in tropical Asia, and respiration increased carbon release (0.6 ± 1.01 gigatons C) in Africa. We found that most of the excess carbon release in 2015 was associated with either extremely low precipitation or high temperatures, or both. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that the global El Niño effect is a superposition of regionally specific effects. The heterogeneous climate forcing and carbon response over the three tropical continents to the 2015–2016 El Niño challenges previous studies that suggested that a single dominant process determines carbon cycle interannual variability, which could also be due to previous disturbance and soil and vegetation structure. The similarity between the 2015 tropical climate anomaly and the projected climate changes imply that the role of the tropical land as a buffer for fossil fuel emissions may be reduced in the future. The heterogeneous response may reflect differences in temperature and rainfall anomalies, but intrinsic differences in vegetation species, soils, and prior disturbance may contribute as well. A synergistic use of multiple satellite observations and a long time series of spatially resolved fluxes derived from sustained satellite observations will enable tests of these hypotheses, allow for a more process-based understanding, and, ultimately, aid improved carbon-climate model projections. Diverse climate driver anomalies and carbon cycle responses to the 2015–2016 El Niño over the three tropical continents.: Schematic of climate anomaly patterns over the three tropical continents and the anomalies of the net carbon flux and its dominant constituent flux (i.e., GPP, respiration, and fire) relative to the 2011 La Niña during the 2015–2016 El Niño. GtC, gigatons C.

Significance: Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) have a large impact on air quality and climate change as precursors in the formation of ozone and secondary aerosols. We find that NO_xemissions have not been decreasing as expected in recent years (2011–2015) when comparing top-down estimates from satellites and surface NO₂measurements to the trends predicted from the US Environmental Protection Agency’s emission inventory data. The discrepancy can be explained by the growing relative contribution of industrial, area, and off-road mobile sources of emissions, decreasing relative contribution of on-road gasoline vehicles, and slower than expected decreases in on-road diesel NO_xemissions, with implications for air-quality management.

This study compares recent CO, NO_x, NMVOC, SO₂, BC, and OC anthropogenic emissions from several state‐of‐the‐art top‐down estimates to global and regional bottom‐up inventories and projections from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in several regions. Results show that top‐down emissions derived in several recent studies exhibit similar uncertainty as bottom‐up inventories in some regions for certain species and even less in the case of Chinese CO emissions. In general, the largest discrepancies are found outside of regions such as the United States, Europe, and Japan where the most accurate and detailed information on emissions is available. In some regions such as China, which has recently undergone dynamical economic growth and changes in air quality regulations, the top‐down estimates better capture recent emission trends than global bottom‐up inventories. These results show the potential of top‐down estimates to complement bottom‐up inventories and to aide in the development of emission scenarios, particularly in regions where global inventories lack the necessary up‐to‐date and accurate information regarding regional activity data and emission factors such as Africa and India. Areas of future work aimed at quantifying and reducing uncertainty are also highlighted. A regional comparison of recent CO and NO_x trends in the five SSPs indicate that SSP126, a strong pollution control scenario, best represents the trends from the top‐down and regional bottom‐up inventories in the United States, Europe, and China, while SSP460, a low‐pollution control scenario, lies closest to actual trends in West Africa. This analysis can be useful for air quality forecasting and near‐future pollution control/mitigation policy studies.

Long-term measurements from satellites and surface stations have demonstrated a decreasing trend of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) in the Northern Hemisphere over the past decade. Likely explanations for this decrease include changes in anthropogenic, fires, and/or biogenic emissions or changes in the primary chemical sink hydroxyl radical (OH). Using remotely sensed CO measurements from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument, in situ methyl chloroform (MCF) measurements from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) and the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model, we estimate the change in global CO emissions from 2001 to 2015. We show that the loss rate of MCF varied by 0.2 % in the past 15 years, indicating that changes in global OH distributions do not explain the recent decrease in CO. Our two-step inversion approach for estimating CO emissions is intended to mitigate the effect of bias errors in the MOPITT data as well as model errors in transport and chemistry, which are the primary factors contributing to the uncertainties when quantifying CO emissions using these remotely sensed data. Our results confirm that the decreasing trend of tropospheric CO in the Northern Hemisphere is due to decreasing CO emissions from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. In particular, we find decreasing CO emissions from the United States and China in the past 15 years, and unchanged anthropogenic CO emissions from Europe since 2008. We find decreasing trends of biomass burning CO emissions from boreal North America, boreal Asia and South America, but little change over Africa. In contrast to prior results, we find that a positive trend in CO emissions is likely for India and southeast Asia.

Efforts to stem the spread of COVID‐19 in China hinged on severe restrictions to human movement starting 23 January 2020 in Wuhan and subsequently to other provinces. Here, we quantify the ancillary impacts on air pollution and human health using inverse emissions estimates based on multiple satellite observations. We find that Chinese NOx emissions were reduced by 36% from early January to mid‐February, with more than 80% of reductions occurring after their respective lockdown in most provinces. The reduced precursor emissions increased surface ozone by up to 16 ppb over northern China but decreased PM2.5 by up to 23 μg m⁻³ nationwide. Changes in human exposure are associated with about 2,100 more ozone‐related and at least 60,000 fewer PM2.5‐related morbidity incidences, primarily from asthma cases, thereby augmenting efforts to reduce hospital admissions and alleviate negative impacts from potential delayed treatments.

Observational data indicate increasing trends of surface ozone (O₃) in China, despite emission controls that have resulted in reductions of precursor emissions. Here, we explore the cause of this contradiction, through analysis of surface observations (2014–2019) in China and historical observation record in the United States (US, 1990–2019). Our observation‐based analysis indicates that the reductions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions led to increase of surface O₃ in North China Plain (NCP) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of around 8 ppb. However, NO_x controls resulted in shift of O₃ chemical regimes over NCP and YRD, with turning points between NO_x‐ and volatile organic compound (VOC)‐limited regimes around 2019, while model simulations suggest transitional or NO_x‐limited regimes over the rest of China. The impacts of high fine particles (PM_2.5) on O₃ formation has declined because of the reduction of PM_2.5 concentrations. Stricter NO_x controls can mitigate O₃ pollutions over industrialized areas in China.