Millions of people rely on river water originating from snow- and ice-melt from basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH). One such basin is the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), where the snow- and ice-melt contribution can be more than 80%. Being the origin of some of the world’s largest alpine glaciers, this basin could be highly susceptible to global warming and climate change. Field observations and geodetic measurements suggest that in the Karakoram Mountains, glaciers are either stable or have expanded since 1990, in sharp contrast to glacier retreats that are prevalently observed in the Himalayas and adjoining high-altitude terrains of Central Asia. Decreased summer temperature and discharge in the rivers originating from this region are cited as supporting evidence for this somewhat anomalous phenomenon. This study used remote sensing data during the summer months (July–September) for the period 2000 to 2017. Equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for July, August and September have been estimated. ELA trends for July and September were found statistically insignificant. The August ELA declined by 128 m during 2000–2017 at a rate of 7.1 m/year, testifying to the Karakoram Anomaly concomitant with stable to mass gaining glaciers in the Hunza Basin (western Karakoram). Stable glaciers may store fresh water for longer and provide sustainable river water flows in the near to far future. However, these glaciers are also causing low flows of the river during summer months. The Tarbela reservoir reached three times its lowest storage level during June 2019, and it was argued this was due to the low melt of glaciers in the Karakoram region. Therefore, using remote sensing data to monitor the glaciers’ health concomitant with sustainable water resources development and management in the HKH region is urgently needed.

Alpine glaciers are a fundamental component of the cryosphere and are significantly sensitive to climate change. One such region is the Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH) and Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, which contains more than 40,000 glaciers. There are more than 12 glacier inventories available covering parts of (or the entire) HKH region, but these show significant uncertainties regarding the extent of glaciers. Researchers have used different glacier inventories without assessing their accuracy. This study, therefore, assessed the implications of the accuracy of global glacier inventories in hydrological modeling and future water resource planning. The accuracy assessment of most commonly used two global glacier inventories (Global Land Ice Monitoring from Space-GLIMS v 2.0 and Randolph Glacier Inventory-RGI v 6.0) has been carried out for three sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin—the Swat, the Chitral, and the Kabul River basins (combined, this is referred to as the Great Kabul River Basin)—with a total basin area of 94,552.86 km². Glacier outlines have been compared with various Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8, high-resolution Google Earth images, and manually digitized debris-covered glacier outlines during different years. The total glacier area for the Great Kabul River Basin derived from RGI and GLIMS is estimated to be 2120.35 km² and 1789.94 km², respectively, which was a difference of 16.9%. Despite being sub-basins of the Great Kabul River Basin, the Swat, and the Chitral River basins were different by 54.74% and 19.71%, respectively, between the two inventories, with a greater glacierized area provided by RGI, whereas the Kabul River basin was different by 54.72%, with greater glacierized area provided by GLIMS. The results and analysis show that GLIMS underestimates glacier outlines in the Swat and the Chitral basins and overestimates glacier extents in the Kabul River basin. The underestimation is mainly due to the non-representation of debris-covered glaciers. The overestimation in GLIMS data is due to the digitization of seasonal snow as part of the glaciers. The use of underestimated GLIMS outlines may result in 5–10% underestimation of glacier-melt contribution to flows in the Swat River basin, while an underestimation of 7% to 15% is expected in the Chitral River Basin, all compared to RGI v 6.0 outlines. The overestimation of glacier-melt contribution to flows in the Kabul River basin is insignificant (1% to 2%) using GLIMS data. In summary, the use of the GLIMS inventory will lead to underestimated flows and show that the Great Kabul River Basin (particularly the Chitral River Basin) is less sensitive to climate change effects. Thus, the current study recommends the use of RGI v 6.0 (best glacier inventory) to revisit the existing biased hydro-climate studies and to improve future hydro-climate studies with the concomitant rectification of the MODIS snow coverage data. The use of the best glacier inventory will provide the best estimates of flow sensitivity to climate change and will result in well-informed decision-making, precise and accurate policies, and sustainable water resource management in the study area. The methodology adopted in the current study may also be used in nearby areas with similar hydro-climate conditions, as well as for the most recently released RGI v 7.0 data.