The supply and demand of ecosystem services are affected by land use. Only a few studies have conducted in-depth quantitative analyses. This study adopted the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region as the research area. The CLUMondo model was adopted to infer the land-use pattern under protection, development, and natural scenarios in 2035. Moreover, the InVEST model was utilized to evaluate carbon sequestration, water yield, and soil conservation under multiple land-use patterns. The production possibility frontier was drawn to visualize the trade-off relationship further. The trade-off intensity index was calculated to quantify the magnitude of the trade-off. (1) Under the development scenario, the accelerated expansion of urbanized land will occupy a large amount of arable and forest land, which should be planned and controlled. (2) The trade-off and synergistic relationships could be transformed under the different land-use scenarios. (3) The production possibility frontier curve for each ecosystem service trade-off and the optimal value of the trade-off configuration were plotted for the different scenarios. The trade-off intensity of ecosystem services was also calculated. This study combined ecosystem services with land-use regulations and revealed the link between ecosystem services and regional land-use pattern change. The aim is to provide a reference for the synergistic progress of the ecological economy in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.

Land-use patterns have always been affected by urban development, and their structural optimization is of great significance to high-quality urban development. However, since the establishment of the spatial planning system, there are still a lack of methods for optimizing the land-use structure. To this end, the research proposes an analysis framework, and proposes the direction of land-use structure adjustment through the status analysis, potential evaluation, and LUCC simulation model, and provides a new idea and method of spatial planning. The research uses an analytical framework to analyze the case of Changzhi City, Shanxi Province, puts forward the problems existing in the process of its land use, and further proposes the direction and focus of the adjustment of the land-use structure. Results show that the spatial distribution of land in Changzhi City presents a “forest-farm-forest” characteristic, and forest land, farmland and grassland account for 85% of its total area. From 2010 to 2018, the grassland area in Changzhi City decreased the most to 3486.13 hm², and the comprehensive degree of land use increased from 235.88% to 236.73%; however, the cultivated land showed a downward trend. The construction land intensive utilization of Changzhi City is low, and the potential for rural construction land consolidation is high. In addition, the conversion probability of cultivated land in the Tunliu district and the conversion probability of construction land close to Luzhou district are relatively higher, which can be used as crucial areas for the future development of Changzhi City. In the process of urban development, cultivated land protection and construction land demand should be balanced.

Land use pattern has always been affected by urban development, and its optimization is of great significance to high-quality urban development, but the land use structure in coal cities has been rarely explored. Changzhi City, as a central city in the southeast region of Shanxi Province, is a large coal province with a superior ecological environment. Under the background of land spatial planning and ecological civilization construction, the land use structure and ecological problems of this city have attracted great attention. This research aims to explore the land use structure optimization method and provide new ideas for the national territory spatial planning of Changzhi City. On the basis of the 2010–2018 land use data of Changzhi City, the current problems in land use are analyzed, the construction land intensiveness, the potential of cultivated land reserve resources, and the potential of rural construction land consolidation are evaluated, and GeoSOS-FLUS is used to justify the conversion of various land types, providing the focus and direction of land use structure optimization and layout adjustment. Results show that the spatial distribution of land in Changzhi City presents the “forest-farm-forest” characteristic, the construction land intensive utilization of Changzhi City is low, and the potential of rural construction land consolidation is high. In addition, the conversion probability of cultivated land in Tunliu district and the conversion probability of construction land close to Luzhou district are relatively higher, which can be used as key areas for the future development of Changzhi City. In the process of urban development, cultivated land protection and construction land demand should be balanced.