The tasselled cap concept is extended to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Nadir BRDF‐Adjusted Reflectance (NBAR, MOD43) data. The transformation is based on a rigid rotation of principal component axes (PCAs) derived from a global sample spanning one full year of NBAR 16‐day composites. To provide a standard for MODIS tasselled cap axes, we recommend an orientation in MODIS spectral band space as similar as possible to the orientation of the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) tasselled cap axes. To achieve this we first transformed our global sample of MODIS NBAR reflectance values to TM tasselled cap values using the existing TM transformation, then used an existing algorithm (Procrustes) to compute the transformation that minimizes the mean square difference between the TM transformed NBAR values and NBAR PCA values. This transformation can then be used as a standard to rotate the MODIS NBAR PCA axes into a new MODIS Kauth–Thomas (KT) orientation. Global land cover patterns in tasselled cap space are demonstrated graphically by linking the global sample with several other products, including the MODIS Land Cover product (MOD12) and the MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields product (MOD44). Patterns seen at this global scale agree with previous explorations of TM tasselled cap space, but are shown here in greater detail with a globally representative sample. Temporal trends of eight smaller‐scale BigFoot Project (www.fsl.orst.edu/larse/bigfoot) sites were also examined, confirming the spectral shifts in tasselled cap space related to phenology.

Disturbance monitoring is an important application of the Landsat times series, both to monitor forest dynamics and to support wise forest management at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. In the last decade, there has been an acceleration in the development of approaches designed to put the Landsat archive to use towards these causes. Forest disturbance mapping has moved from using individual change-detection algorithms, which implement a single set of decision rules that may not apply well to a range of scenarios, to compiling ensembles of such algorithms. One approach that has greatly reduced disturbance detection error has been to combine individual algorithm outputs in Random Forest (RF) ensembles trained with disturbance reference data, a process called stacking (or secondary classification). Previous research has demonstrated more robust and sensitive detection of disturbance using stacking with both multialgorithm ensembles and multispectral ensembles (which make use of a single algorithm applied to multiple spectral bands). In this paper, we examined several additional dimensions of this problem, including: (1) type of algorithm (represented by processes using one image per year vs. all historical images); (2) spectral band choice (including both the basic Landsat reflectance bands and several popular indices based on those bands); (3) number of algorithm/spectral-band combinations needed; and (4) the value of including both algorithm and spectral band diversity in the ensembles. We found that ensemble performance substantially improved per number of model inputs if those inputs were drawn from a diversity of both algorithms and spectral bands. The best models included inputs from both algorithms, using different variants of shortwave-infrared (SWIR) and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance. Further disturbance detection improvement may depend upon the development of algorithms which either interrogate SWIR and NIR in new ways or better highlight disturbance signals in the visible wavelengths.

Understanding change in forest carbon (C) is important for devising strategies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. National forest inventories (NFIs) are important to meet international accounting goals, but data are often incomplete going back in time, and the amount of time between remeasurements can make attribution of C flux to specific events difficult. The long time series of Landsat imagery provides spatially comprehensive, consistent information that can be used to fill the gaps in ground measurements with predictive models. To evaluate such models, we relate Landsat spectral changes and disturbance interpretations directly to C flux measured on NFI plots and compare the performance of models with and without ground-measured predictor variables. The study was conducted in the forests of southwest Oregon State, USA, a region of diverse forest types, disturbances, and landowner management objectives. Plot data consisted of 676 NFI plots with remeasured individual tree data over a mean interval (time 1 to time 2) of 10.0 years. We calculated change in live aboveground woody carbon (AWC), including separate components of growth, mortality, and harvest. We interpreted radiometrically corrected annual Landsat images with the TimeSync (TS) tool for a 90 m × 90 m area over each plot. Spectral time series were divided into segments of similar trajectories and classified as disturbance, recovery, or stability segments, with type of disturbance identified. We calculated a variety of values and segment changes from tasseled cap angle and distance (TCA and TCD) as potential predictor variables of C flux. Multiple linear regression was used to model AWC and net change in AWC from the TS change metrics. The TS attribution of disturbance matched the plot measurements 89% of the time regarding whether fire or harvest had occurred or not. The primary disagreement was due to plots that had been partially cut, mostly in vigorous stands where the net change in AWC over the measurement was positive in spite of cutting. The plot-measured AWC at time 2 was 86.0 ± 78.7 Mg C ha⁻¹ (mean and standard deviation), and the change in AWC across all plots was 3.5 ± 33 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. The best model for AWC based solely on TS and other mapped variables had an R² = 0.52 (RMSE = 54.6 Mg C ha⁻¹); applying this model at two time periods to estimate net change in AWC resulted in an R² = 0.25 (RMSE = 28.3 Mg ha⁻¹) and a mean error of −5.4 Mg ha⁻¹. The best model for AWC at time 2 using plot measurements at time 1 and TS variables had an R² = 0.95 (RSME = 17.0 Mg ha⁻¹). The model for net change in AWC using the same data was identical except that, because the variable being estimated was smaller in magnitude, the R² = 0.73. All models performed better at estimating net change in AWC on TS-disturbed plots than on TS-undisturbed plots. The TS discrimination of disturbance between fire and harvest was an important variable in the models because the magnitude of spectral change from fire was greater for a given change in AWC. Regional models without plot-level predictors produced erroneous predictions of net change in AWC for some of the forest types. Our study suggests that, in spite of the simplicity of applying a single carbon model to multiple image dates, the approach can produce inaccurate estimates of C flux. Although models built with plot-level predictors are necessarily constrained to making predictions at plot locations, they show promise for providing accurate updates or back-calculations of C flux assessments.