Electricity Markets and Energy Systems Planning Group, Department of Electric Power Engineering, Faculty of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim NO-7491, Norway
Prof. Dr. Umit Cali
Electricity Markets and Energy Systems Planning Group, Department of Electric Power Engineering, Faculty of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim NO-7491, Norway
Over the last two decades, Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches have been applied to various applications of the smart grid, such as demand response, predictive maintenance, and load forecasting. However, AI is still considered to be a “black-box” due to its lack of explainability and transparency, especially for something like solar photovoltaic (PV) forecasts that involves many parameters. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has become an emerging research field in the smart grid domain since it addresses this gap and helps understand why the AI system made a forecast decision. This article presents several use cases of solar PV energy forecasting using XAI tools, such as LIME, SHAP, and ELI5, which can contribute to adopting XAI tools for smart grid applications. Understanding the inner workings of a prediction model based on AI can give insights into the application field. Such insight can provide improvements to the solar PV forecasting models and point out relevant parameters.
Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of its information content (e.g., its physical and statistical modeling) and standardization of uncertainty forecast products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts and their applicability in practice. This paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: (i) end-users should start to look at the forecast’s properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; (ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. A set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been among the most emerging research and industrial application fields, especially in the healthcare domain, but operated as a black-box model with a limited understanding of its inner working over the past decades. AI algorithms are, in large part, built on weights calculated as a result of large matrix multiplications. It is typically hard to interpret and debug the computationally intensive processes. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to solve black-box and hard-to-debug approaches through the use of various techniques and tools. In this study, XAI techniques are applied to chronic wound classification. The proposed model classifies chronic wounds through the use of transfer learning and fully connected layers. Classified chronic wound images serve as input to the XAI model for an explanation. Interpretable results can help shed new perspectives to clinicians during the diagnostic phase. The proposed method successfully provides chronic wound classification and its associated explanation to extract additional knowledge that can also be interpreted by non-data-science experts, such as medical scientists and physicians. This hybrid approach is shown to aid with the interpretation and understanding of AI decision-making processes.