Nordic countries’ data offer a unique possibility to evaluate the long-term benefit of cervical cancer screening in a context of increasing risk of human papillomavirus infection. Ad hoc-refined age-period-cohort models were applied to the last 50-year incidence data from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to project expected cervical cancer cases in a no-screening scenario. In the absence of screening, projected incidence rates for 2006–2010 in Nordic countries would have been between 3 and 5 times higher than observed rates. Over 60 000 cases or between 41 and 49% of the expected cases of cervical cancer may have been prevented by the introduction of screening in the late 1960 s and early 1970 s. Our study suggests that screening programmes might have prevented a HPV-driven epidemic of cervical cancer in Nordic countries. According to extrapolations from cohort effects, cervical cancer incidence rates in the Nordic countries would have been otherwise comparable to the highest incidence rates currently detected in low-income countries.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection but it is unclear whether differences in transmission efficacy exist between individual HPV types. Information on sexual behavior was collected from 11 areas in four continents among population-based, age-stratified random samples of women of ages ≥15 years. HPV testing was done using PCR-based enzyme immunoassay. Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) of being HPV positive and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Variables were analyzed categorically. When more than two groups were compared, floating confidence intervals were estimated by treating ORs as floating absolute risks. A total of 11,337 women (mean age, 41.9 years) were available. We confirmed that lifetime number of sexual partners is associated with HPV positivity (OR for ≥2 versus 1, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.63-2.11) but the association was not a linear one for HPV18, 31, and 33 (i.e., no clear increase for ≥3 versus 2 sexual partners). Women who had multiple-type infection and high-risk HPV type infection reported a statistically nonsignificant higher number of sexual partners than women who had single-type and low-risk type infections, respectively. Early age at sexual debut was not significantly related to HPV positivity. Husband's extramarital sexual relationships were associated with an OR of 1.45 (95% CI, 1.24-1.70) for HPV positivity in their wives after adjustment for age and lifetime number of women's sexual partners. We did not observe a significant association with condom use. Our study showed an effect of both women's and their husbands' sexual behavior on HPV positivity. Furthermore, it suggests some differences in the pattern of the association between sexual behavior and different HPV types.(Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2006;15(2):326–33)