We report the design of the NHS-Galleri trial (ISRCTN91431511), aiming to establish whether a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test that screens asymptomatic individuals for cancer can reduce late-stage cancer incidence. This randomised controlled trial has invited approximately 1.5 million persons and enrolled over 140,000 from the general population of England (50–77 years; ≥3 years without cancer diagnosis or treatment; not undergoing investigation for suspected cancer). Blood is being collected at up to three annual visits. Following baseline blood collection, participants are randomised 1:1 to the intervention (blood tested by MCED test) or control (blood stored) arm. Only participants in the intervention arm with a cancer signal detected have results returned and are referred for urgent investigations and potential treatment. Remaining participants in both arms stay blinded and return for their next visit. Participants are encouraged to continue other NHS cancer screening programmes and seek help for new or unusual symptoms. The primary objective is to demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in the incidence rate of stage III and IV cancers diagnosed in the intervention versus control arm 3–4 years after randomisation. NHS-Galleri will help determine the clinical utility of population screening with an MCED test.

Objectives: Designing cancer screening trials for multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests presents a significant methodology challenge, as natural histories of cell-free DNA-shedding cancers are not yet known. A microsimulation model was developed to project the performance and utility of an MCED test in cancer screening trials. Methods: Individual natural history of preclinical progression through cancer stages for 23 cancer classes was simulated by a stage-transition model under a broad range of cancer latency parameters. Cancer incidences and stage distributions at clinical presentation in simulated trials were set to match the data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. One or multiple rounds of annual screening using a targeted methylation-based MCED test (Galleri^Ⓡ) was conducted to detect preclinical cancers. Mortality benefit of early detection was simulated by a stage-shift model. Results: In simulated trials, accounting for healthy volunteer effect and varying test sensitivity, positive predictive value in the prevalence screening round reached 48% to 61% in 6 natural history scenarios. After 3 rounds of annual screening, the cumulative proportions of stage I/II cancers increased by approximately 9% to 14%, the incidence of stage IV cancers was reduced by 37% to 46%, the reduction of stages III and IV cancer incidences was 9% to 24%, and the reduction of mortality reached 13% to 16%. Greater reductions of late-stage cancers and cancer mortality were achieved by five rounds of MCED screening. Conclusions: Simulation results guide trial design and suggest that adding this MCED test to routine screening in the United States may shift cancer detection to earlier stages, and potentially save lives.