Wheat is one of the main crops in China, and crop yield prediction is important for regional trade and national food security. There are increasing concerns with respect to how to integrate multi-source data and employ machine learning techniques to establish a simple, timely, and accurate crop yield prediction model at an administrative unit. Many previous studies were mainly focused on the whole crop growth period through expensive manual surveys, remote sensing, or climate data. However, the effect of selecting different time window on yield prediction was still unknown. Thus, we separated the whole growth period into four time windows and assessed their corresponding predictive ability by taking the major winter wheat production regions of China as an example in the study. Firstly we developed a modeling framework to integrate climate data, remote sensing data and soil data to predict winter wheat yield based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The results show that the models can accurately predict yield 1~2 months before the harvesting dates at the county level in China with an R² > 0.75 and yield error less than 10%. Support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and random forest (RF) represent the top three best methods for predicting yields among the eight typical machine learning models tested in this study. In addition, we also found that different agricultural zones and temporal training settings affect prediction accuracy. The three models perform better as more winter wheat growing season information becomes available. Our findings highlight a potentially powerful tool to predict yield using multiple-source data and machine learning in other regions and for crops.

Wheat is a leading cereal grain throughout the world. Timely and reliable wheat yield prediction at a large scale is essential for the agricultural supply chain and global food security, especially in China as an important wheat producing and consuming country. The conventional approach using either climate or satellite data or both to build empirical and crop models has prevailed for decades. However, to what extent climate and satellite data can improve yield prediction is still unknown. In addition, socio-economic (SC) factors may also improve crop yield prediction, but their contributions need in-depth investigation, especially in regions with good irrigation conditions, sufficient fertilization, and pesticide application. Here, we performed the first attempt to predict wheat yield across China from 2001 to 2015 at the county-level by integrating multi-source data, including monthly climate data, satellite data (i.e., Vegetation indices (VIs)), and SC factors. The results show that incorporating all the datasets by using three machine learning methods (Ridge Regression (RR), Random Forest (RF), and Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM)) can achieve the best performance in yield prediction (R²: 0.68~0.75), with the most individual contributions from climate (~0.53), followed by VIs (~0.45), and SC factors (~0.30). In addition, the combinations of VIs and climate data can capture inter-annual yield variability more effectively than other combinations (e.g., combinations of climate and SC, and combinations of VIs and SC), while combining SC with climate data can better capture spatial yield variability than others. Climate data can provide extra and unique information across the entire growing season, while the peak stage of VIs (Mar.~Apr.) do so. Furthermore, incorporating spatial information and soil proprieties into the benchmark models can improve wheat yield prediction by 0.06 and 0.12, respectively. The optimal wheat prediction can be achieved with approximately a two-month leading time before maturity. Our study develops timely and robust methods for winter wheat yield prediction at a large scale in China, which can be applied to other crops and regions.

Precise and timely information on crop spatial distribution over large areas is paramount to agricultural monitoring, food security, and policy development. Currently, automatically classifying crop types at a large scale is challenging due to the scarcity of ground data. Although previous studies have indicated that transductive transfer learning (TTL) is a promising method to address this problem, it performs poorly within regions where crop compositions and phenology differ largely. Here we transferred random forest classifiers trained in limited regions with diversified growing conditions and land covers to the rest of the study area where ground data are scarce, with more than 130,000 Sentinel-2 images processed using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. We established the 10 m crop maps for four major crops (i.e., maize, rapeseed, winter, and spring Triticeae crops) across 10 European Union (EU) countries from 2018 to 2019. The final crop maps had a high accuracy with overall accuracy generally greater than 0.89, with user’s accuracy and producer’s accuracy ranging from 0.72 to 0.98. Moreover, the resulting maps were consistent with the NUTS-2 level official statistics, with R2 consistently greater than 0.9. We further analyzed the crop rotation patterns and found that the rotation intervals across these EU countries were generally at least one year. Maize was dominantly rotated with winter Triticeae crops or converted to other land covers in the following year. Rapeseed was generally grown in rotation with winter Triticeae crops, whereas the rotation patterns of winter and spring Triticeae crops were more diversified. Red Edge Position (REP) and Normalized Difference Yellow Index (NDYI) played significant roles in crop classification across the EU. This study highlights the potential of the developed TTL method for crop classification over large spatial extents where labeled data are limited and the differences in crop compositions and phenology are relatively large.

Detecting crop calendar changes is critically important for crop monitoring and management, but the lack of annual, Asia-wide, and long-term rice calendar datasets limits our understanding of rice phenological changes and their climate drivers. In this study, we retrieved key rice phenological dates from the GLASS AVHRR LAI through combining threshold-based and inflection-based detection methods, analyzed the changes during the period 1995–2015, and identified the key climate drivers of the main rice seasons in Asia. The retrieved phenological dates had a high level of agreement with the referenced observations. All R² were greater than 0.80. The length of the vegetation growing period (VGP) was mostly shortened (by an average of −4 days per decade), while the length of the reproductive growing period was mostly prolonged (by an average of 2 days per decade). Moreover, solar radiation had the most significant impact on the rice calendar changes, followed by the maximum and minimum temperatures. The VGP in tropical areas is the most sensitive to climate change. Our study extends the annual rice phenology dynamics to a higher spatial–temporal resolution and provides new insights into rice calendar changes and their climate drivers, which will assist governments and researchers regarding food security and agricultural sustainability.