Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is an essential tool for mitigating the negative effects caused by the uncertainty of PV output power in systems with high penetration levels of solar PV generation. Weather classification based modeling is an effective way to increase the accuracy of day-ahead short-term (DAST) solar PV power forecasting because PV output power is strongly dependent on the specific weather conditions in a given time period. However, the accuracy of daily weather classification relies on both the applied classifiers and the training data. This paper aims to reveal how these two factors impact the classification performance and to delineate the relation between classification accuracy and sample dataset scale. Two commonly used classification methods, K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machines (SVM) are applied to classify the daily local weather types for DAST solar PV power forecasting using the operation data from a grid-connected PV plant in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China. We assessed the performance of SVM and KNN approaches, and then investigated the influences of sample scale, the number of categories, and the data distribution in different categories on the daily weather classification results. The simulation results illustrate that SVM performs well with small sample scale, while KNN is more sensitive to the length of the training dataset and can achieve higher accuracy than SVM with sufficient samples.

The module temperature is the most important parameter influencing the output power of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, aside from solar irradiance. In this paper, we focus on the interdisciplinary research that combines the correlation analysis, mutual information (MI) and heat transfer theory, which aims to figure out the correlative relations between different meteorological impact factors (MIFs) and PV module temperature from both quality and quantitative aspects. The identification and confirmation of primary MIFs of PV module temperature are investigated as the first step of this research from the perspective of physical meaning and mathematical analysis about electrical performance and thermal characteristic of PV modules based on PV effect and heat transfer theory. Furthermore, the quantitative description of the MIFs influence on PV module temperature is mathematically formulated as several indexes using correlation-based feature selection (CFS) and MI theory to explore the specific impact degrees under four different typical weather statuses named general weather classes (GWCs). Case studies for the proposed methods were conducted using actual measurement data of a 500 kW grid-connected solar PV plant in China. The results not only verified the knowledge about the main MIFs of PV module temperatures, more importantly, but also provide the specific ratio of quantitative impact degrees of these three MIFs respectively through CFS and MI based measures under four different GWCs.

Regional wind power forecasting is conducive to achieving scientific dispatch of the power system as well as improving its reliability. Data mining based on a large number of samples is an effective way to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting. A new regional power forecasting method in the context of data mining is presented in this paper. First, a previously described regional wind power forecasting method, single feature similarity matching method, is analyzed and a new multi-feature similarity matching method is proposed. Second, the optimization and analysis processes of four key parameters in the multi-feature similarity matching method are proposed and the impact of each key parameter on prediction accuracy and the applicability of the method under different regional scales is analyzed. Finally, the new method and the optimization and analysis processes are verified by wind power clusters, composed of 52 wind farms in a region of northeast China, and the new method is compared with the conventional statistical up-scaling method, additive method, and the single feature similarity matching method. The results show that the improved multi-feature similarity matching method is superior to the conventional prediction method, whereby the root mean square error of 0 to 2 h is reduced by 3.65% and the root mean square error of 0 to 4 h is reduced by 1.56%. The new method has been proved to be an effective power forecasting method for wind farm clusters and has potential industrial application prospects.

The optimized dispatch of different distributed generations (DGs) in stand-alone microgrid (MG) is of great significance to the operation’s reliability and economy, especially for energy crisis and environmental pollution. Based on controllable load (CL) and combined cooling-heating-power (CCHP) model of micro-gas turbine (MT), a multi-objective optimization model with relevant constraints to optimize the generation cost, load cut compensation and environmental benefit is proposed in this paper. The MG studied in this paper consists of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), fuel cell (FC), diesel engine (DE), MT and energy storage (ES). Four typical scenarios were designed according to different day types (work day or weekend) and weather conditions (sunny or rainy) in view of the uncertainty of renewable energy in variable situations and load fluctuation. A modified dispatch strategy for CCHP is presented to further improve the operation economy without reducing the consumers’ comfort feeling. Chaotic optimization and elite retention strategy are introduced into basic particle swarm optimization (PSO) to propose modified chaos particle swarm optimization (MCPSO) whose search capability and convergence speed are improved greatly. Simulation results validate the correctness of the proposed model and the effectiveness of MCPSO algorithm in the optimized operation application of stand-alone MG.

To address the static voltage stability issue and suppress the voltage fluctuation caused by the increasing integration of wind farms and solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants, a two-tier reactive power and voltage control strategy based on ARMA power forecasting models for wind and solar plants is proposed in this paper. Firstly, ARMA models are established to forecast the output of wind farms and solar PV plants. Secondly, the discrete equipment is pre-regulated based on the single-step prediction information from ARMA forecasting models according to the optimization result. Thirdly, a multi-objective optimization model is presented and solved by particle swarm optimization (PSO) according to the measured data and the proposed static voltage stability index. Finally, the IEEE14 bus system including a wind farm and solar PV plant is utilized to test the effectiveness of the proposed strategy. The results show that the proposed strategy can suppress voltage fluctuation and improve the static voltage stability under the condition of high penetration of renewables including wind and solar power.

With the centralization of wind power development, power-prediction technology based on wind power clusters has become an important means to reduce the volatility of wind power, so a large-scale power-prediction method of wind power clusters is proposed considering the prediction stability. Firstly, the fluctuating features of wind farms are constructed by acquiring statistical features to further build a divided model of wind power clusters using fuzzy clustering algorithm. Then the spatiotemporal features of the data of wind power are obtained using a spatiotemporal attention network to train the prediction model of wind power clusters in a large scale. Finally, the stability of predictive performance of wind power is analyzed using the comprehensive index evaluation system. The results show that the RMSE of wind power prediction is lower than 0.079 at large-scale wind farms based on the prediction method of wind power proposed in this paper using experience based on the data of 159 wind farms in the Nei Monggol Autonomous Region in China and the extreme error is better than 25% for the total capacity of wind farms, which indicates high stability and accuracy.