Heterosigma akashiwo is one of the smallest raphidophytes and is known for its ability to form dense, fish-killing blooms. In many parts of the world, H. akashiwo is a permanent resident of the alg...

Blooms of ichthyotoxic microalgae pose a great challenge to the aquaculture industry world-wide, and there is a need for fast and specific methods for their detection and quantification in monitoring programs. In this study, quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) assays for the detection and enumeration of three ichthyotoxic flagellates: the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi (Miyake & Kominami ex Oda) Hansen & Moestrup and the two raphidophytes Heterosigma akashiwo (Hada) Hada ex Hara & Chihara and Fibrocapsa japonica Toriumi & Takano were developed. Further, a previously published qPCR assay for the dinoflagellate Karlodinium veneficum (Ballantine) Larsen was used. Monthly samples collected for three years (Aug 2009-Jun 2012) in outer Oslofjorden, Norway were analysed, and the results compared with light microscopy cell counts. The results indicate a higher sensitivity and a lower detection limit (down to 1 cell L-1) for both qPCR assays. Qualitative and semi-quantitative results were further compared with those obtained by environmental 454 high throughput sequencing (HTS, metabarcoding) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) examination from the same samplings. All four species were detected by qPCR and HTS and/or SEM in outer Oslofjorden (Aug 2009-Jun 2012); Karlodinium veneficum was present year-round, whereas Karenia mikimotoi, Heterosigma akashiwo and Fibrocapsa japonica appeared mainly during the autumn in all three years. This is the first observation of Fibrocapsa japonica in Norwegian coastal waters. This species has previously been recorded off the Swedish west coast and German Bight, which may suggest a northward dispersal.

Changes in phytoplankton abundance and biomass during the period 1933–2020 were examined by statistical modeling using data from the Inner Oslofjorden phytoplankton database. The phytoplankton abundances increased with eutrophication from 1930s to 1970s, but with the implementation of sewage cleaning measures and a resulting reduction in nutrient releases, the phytoplankton abundance has since then decreased significantly. The onset of the seasonal blooms has started progressively later during the last 15 years, especially the spring bloom. The delayed spring bloom co-occurred with increasing temperature in winter and spring. The diatom biomass decreased more than that of dinoflagellates and other microeukaryotes. The diatom genus Skeletonema dominated the spring bloom and was found to be the key taxa in explaining these changes in abundance and phenology. Extensive summer blooms of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, which has been characteristic for the inner Oslofjorden, has also gradually decreased during the last decades, along with reducing eutrophication. Dinoflagellates have not had the same reduction in abundance as the other groups. Despite an increasing proportion of dinoflagellates compared with other taxa, there are no clear indications of increased occurrence of toxic algal blooms in inner Oslofjorden. However, the introduction of new “toxin-producing” species may cause concern.