Water yield and purification are important aspects of water ecosystem services, and achieving a balanced development of the two is necessary for the development of aquatic ecosystems. Using the InVEST model, the spatiotemporal variations of regional water yield and purification services in Shanxi, China, from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed. Three future scenarios (natural development, urban development, and ecological protection) were assessed for 2030 using the PLUS model. The results showed that in 2000–2020, the water yield of Shanxi Province in terms of space was generally low in the middle and northwest and high in the southeast, and it was affected by land-use change and climatic change. From 2000 to 2020, the water yield of Shanxi Province changed by 78.8 mm. In 2030, water yield will be highest under the urban development scenario (380.53 mm) and lowest in the ecological protection scenario (368.22 mm). Moreover, the water quality purification capacity improved, with nitrogen loading high in the center and low in the east and west. Due to the implementation of environmental protection policies and the improvement of the technical level, the nitrogen load was the highest in 2000 (0.97 kg/hm²) and lowest in 2015 (0.94 kg/hm²). By 2030, because of the high nitrogen loadings of cultivation and construction land and low nitrogen loadings of forests and grasslands, the nitrogen load was lowest under the scenario of urban development (0.94 kg/hm²) and highest under ecological protection (0.85 kg/hm²).

Estimating future precipitation changes in the Qinling Mountains has significance, for understanding how to reveal the basic characteristics of the atmospheric water cycle in mountainous areas under the action of monsoons and the temporal- and spatial-variation mechanism of water resources in the ‘central water tower’, under the background of climate change. Based on four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) of the CMIP6 model, the Taylor diagram method was used to select the best regional simulation model, according to historical observation data (1970–2014). On this basis, the precipitation change and circulation background of the Qinling Mountains over the next 86 years (2015–2100) were analyzed. The results show that the simulation effect of the optimal mode is better than that of the single mode. Under the four scenarios, the variation trends of the annual precipitation in the Qinling Mountains from 2015 to 2100 were 4.4 mm/10a, 18.5 mm/10a, 18.1 mm/10a, and 19.1 mm/10a, respectively. By the middle of this century (2041–2060), compared with the reference period of 1995–2014, the average annual precipitation in the Qinling Mountains under the four scenarios will increase by 64.1 mm, 7 mm, 28.8 mm, and −51 mm, respectively. By the end of this century (2081–2100), the average annual precipitation under the four scenarios will increase by 29.5 mm, 77.2 mm, 82.9 mm, and 21.2 mm, respectively. The abnormal increase (decrease) of water vapor, transported northward from the western Pacific and the Bay of Bengal, is the main reason for the abnormal increase (decrease) of precipitation in the flood season in the Qinling Mountains. With the increase in emission scenarios, the influence of the South Asian summer monsoon on precipitation in the Qinling Mountains becomes more significant.

In the context of global climate governance and China’s carbon neutrality target, Shanxi Province, one of China’s major energy exporting regions, is under high pressure to achieve carbon neutrality. This paper sets up three carbon source scenarios and three carbon sink scenarios based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) and CA-Markov models to simulate the future change in carbon source and carbon sink of Shanxi from 2020 to 2060; it analyzes the achievement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets for each source–sink scenario. The results show that: (1) The total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions have increased significantly, from 2000 to 2020, especially in heavy industry; (2) The CO₂ emissions are predicted to peak at 381.6 Mt, 294.1 Mt and 282.7 Mt in 2040 (baseline scenario), 2030 (policy scenario), and 2025 (carbon neutrality scenario), respectively. The achievement of the carbon neutrality mainly depends on the reduction in CO₂ emissions; (3) If Shanxi Province strives to reach the energy intensity of developed countries by 2060, with 80% of non-fossil energy generation, it has the potential to achieve the carbon neutrality target; (4) The popularization of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology will significantly accelerate the achievement of Shanxi Province’s carbon neutrality target.

In China, the major water user is agriculture. Under the background of climate change and with the pressure of scarce water resources, the study of crop water footprints serves as a theoretical basis for regional optimization of water resource management, fine-tuning crop planting structures and actively addressing the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural production, among other critical issues. Leveraging meteorological and agricultural data, we employed Taiyuan which is situated in Fen River Basin as our focal research subject and calculated and analyzed the water footprint variations concerning six major food crops—wheat, corn, grain, sorghum, soybean, and potato—from 2000 to 2020. Through meticulous examination, we identified the predominant contribution of blue water (45 %) to the total water footprint, followed by green water (39 %), with grey water playing the smallest role (16 %), indicating that the use of water for crops in the Fen River Basin mainly consumes surface water and groundwater. Our investigation reveals a complementary association between blue water and green water, while both blue water and grey water exhibit an overall declining tendency from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, our predictive modeling of food crop water footprints, considering various SSPs-RCPs scenarios refered from IPCC, points towards a peak within the coming 10–20 years, with a growth rate of 16.2 % to 33.0 %, followed by a subsequent decline. Particularly, in SSP3-7.0 scenario, the water footprint of food crops presents the highest, with a growth rate of up to 33.0 % because of the continuous growth of population and the increase of crop sowing area, while in SSP1-2.6 scenario, the water footprint of food crops shows the lowest, with a growth rate of 16.2 % because of the decrease in population and crop sowing area, before the middle of the current century.

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) faces escalating pressures from climate variability and intensive land-use change; however, how these drivers jointly shape the water ecosystem services (WES) remains insufficiently quantified. This study assessed water yield, soil conservation, and water purification capacity across the YRB from 2000 to 2020 using the InVEST model. The effects of driving forces, including climate and land-use changes, on WES were examined using scenario simulation and the geographical detector method. During 2000–2020, water yield and soil conservation displayed fluctuating upward trends, increasing by 26.24% and 30.19%, respectively, whereas nitrogen and phosphorus exports declined slightly by 4.82% and 3.08%, indicating a modest improvement in water purification. All indicators exhibited elevated values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest, with clear distinctions among the three topographic zones. The contribution rates of climate change to variations in water yield, soil conservation, nitrogen export, and phosphorus export were 97.4–99.3, 94.5–98.3, 87.2–96.0, and 85.7–95.2%, respectively, indicating the central regulatory role of climatic factors in watershed-scale water-related ecological processes. However, the contribution of land-use factors increased over time and had a significantly greater impact on water purification capacity. Distinct spatial heterogeneity was observed among the WES. Interactions among climatic, topographic, and other factors significantly enhanced the spatial variability of water yield and soil conservation services, while land-use interactions with other drivers had greater impacts on the spatial variability of water purification capacity. Thus, regionally differentiated policy strategies are essential. Our findings provide a quantitative basis for differentiating climate versus land-use interventions in water resource management and designing spatially targeted ecological restoration policies in the YRB and similar regions worldwide.