The primary sector is vital for growth and sustainable development in emerging countries. The combined effects of COVID-19 and geopolitical uncertainty on capital flows are likely to have profound impacts on many developing countries. In particular, decreased capital inflows into agriculture will negatively affect food security and growth. However, there remain limited literature on the role of capital inflows in this sector. In this paper, we examine the role that foreign capital inflows play in the development of the agricultural, forestry and fishing sectors in developing countries. Specifically, we use the panel vector autoregression approach that accounts for endogeneity. Using data from sixteen developing economies, we find that there exists bidirectional causality between foreign direct investments in agriculture, forestry and fishing and value added in these sectors. These bidirectional relationships reflect a cyclical effect between FDI and value added in the agriculture, forestry and fishing. The effect of FDI on value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing remains positive for up to five years in our model. This implies FDI has a medium- to long-term positive impact on value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing. The implication of this result is that countries with currently high FDI transaction costs or that have a generally less conducive investment environment can improve agriculture by eliminating these obstacles. This is because FDIs can lead to improved technologies and technical expertise, practices, management and other systems that benefit the host countries.

This paper assesses whether the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the U.S. economy has changed over time. Estimating a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive model on U.S. data from 1985Q1 to 2022Q3, we find that uncertainty shocks have larger negative effects on output during the COVID-19 recession than during other periods. However, financial market variables, such as stock prices and dividends, responded more significantly to uncertainty shocks during the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, the IT bubble of the 2000s, and the Great Recession. We then develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with monetary policy uncertainty. Based on the calibrated model, we conduct several counterfactual exercises to demonstrate that the effects of uncertainty shocks depend on the state of the economy, which is consistent with the empirical evidence. These findings provide new insights into the time-varying nature of the impact of economic uncertainty.

This study examines the impact of multidimensional energy poverty (MDEP) on household consumption and savings, with a focus on potential differences by the gender of the household head. Using data from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey (HRVS) 2016–2018, a three-year panel dataset from Nepal covering 6000 households, we apply pooled OLS, dynamic panel fixed effects (FE), panel instrumental variable (IV), and Lewbel's (Lewbel, 2012) 2SLS methods. Our findings reveal that MDEP significantly reduces both household consumption and savings, with more pronounced effects on savings. The corresponding coefficients range from −0.376 to −0.092 for consumption and from – 0.722 to −3.213 for savings, suggesting that fully transitioning out of MDEP could increase household savings by 72.2 %–321.3 %. The effects of MDEP are consistent across households, regardless of the gender of the household head. This study underscores the importance of addressing MDEP to enhance household welfare and recommends that policymakers focus on expanding reliable and affordable energy access as part of broader economic development strategies to improve overall living standards in developing countries.