Climate change is among the most important drivers of biodiversity decline through shift or shrinkage in suitable habitat of species. Mountain vipers of the genusMontiviperaare under extreme risk from climate changes given their evolutionary history and geographic distribution. In this study, we divided allMontiviperaspecies into three phylogenetic-geographicMontiviperaclades (PGMC; Bornmuelleri, Raddei and Xanthina) and applied an ensemble ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach under different climatic scenarios to assess changes in projected suitable habitats of these species. Based on the predicted range losses, we assessed the projected extinction risk of the species relative to IUCN Red List Criteria. Our result revealed a strong decline in suitable habitats for all PGMCs (63.8%, 79.3% and 96.8% for Xanthina, Raddei and Bornmuelleri, respectively, by 2070 and under 8.5 RCP scenario) with patterns of altitudinal range shifts in response to projected climate change. We found that the mountains close to the Mediterranean Sea are exposed to the highest threats in the future (84.6 ± 9.1 percent range loss). We also revealed that disjunct populations ofMontiviperawill be additionally highly isolated and fragmented in the future. We argue that leveraging climate niche projections into the risk assessment provides the opportunity to implement IUCN criteria and better assess forthcoming extinction risks of species.

Aim: Central Iran is a priority area for biodiversity conservation, which is threatened by encroachment on core habitats and fragmentation by roads. The goal of this study was to identify core areas and connectivity corridors for a set of desert carnivores by predicting habitat suitability and calculating resistant kernel, factorial least‐cost path modelling and graph network indices.Location: Iran.Methods: We used an ensemble model (EM) of habitat suitability methods to predict the potential habitats of leopard, cheetah, caracal, wild cat, sand cat and grey wolf and used resistant kernel and factorial least‐cost path modelling to identify important core habitats and corridors between patches. We also used a graph network analysis to quantify the importance of each core patch to landscape connectivity.Results: Potential habitats of the studied carnivores appeared to be strongly influenced by prey density, annual precipitation, topographical roughness, shrubland density and anthropogenic factors. Most of the core patches were covered by protected areas and no‐hunting areas. This may be attributed to the relatively high resistance outside protected areas leading to isolated occupied patches. Patch importance to connectivity was significantly correlated with patch extent, density of dispersing individuals and probability of occurrence in the core patch.Main conclusions: Our findings revealed that prey abundance in core habitat is critically important, and has higher influence than habitat area per se. In addition, our analysis provided the first map of landscape connectivity for multiple species in Iran and revealed that conserving these species requires integrated landscape‐level management to reduce mortality risk and protect core areas and linkages among them. These results will assist the development of multispecies conservation strategies to protect core areas for carnivores.

Aim: Central part of Iran harbours populations of wild ungulates that are threatened or extinct over large parts of the region, and are likely to be impacted by climate change. In this study, we predicted the impact of climate change on the distribution of three vulnerable ungulates in central Iran. We then evaluated future suitability of corridors connecting the protected areas for movement of the ungulates in response to climate change.Location: Central Iran.Methods: Impact of climate change on distribution of goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa), wild sheep (Ovis spp) and wild goat (Capra aegagrus) was predicted adapting an ensemble modelling approach and under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. We then used CIRCUITSCAPE software with current and future distribution maps to identify corridors for movement of the three ungulates, and evaluate likely changes in their suitability under climate change.Results: Our results revealed that climate change might result in loss of 55%, 69% and 76% of suitable habitats for goitered gazelle, wild sheep and wild goat by 2070, respectively. These losses also resulted in some protected areas to become unsuitable for the ungulates. However, we identified key protected areas with the potential for future protection of these ungulates. For the three species, we also identified corridors which would persist into the future, allowing the impacted populations to move in response to climate change.Main conclusions: Conservation of ungulate populations in Iran mainly depends on the protected areas. To maintain the role of the protected areas in conserving these mammals under climate change, we recommend the incorporation of their potential future distribution into conservation plans, increasing protection status of the key protected areas, and maintain critical corridors. In this regard, combining results of distribution and connectivity models provides useful information for effective management of these ungulates in the future.

The combination of niche modelling and landscape genetics (genomics) helps to disentangle processes that have shaped population structure in the evolutionary past and presence of species. Herein, we integrate a comprehensive genomic dataset with ecological parameters and niche modelling for the threatened Kaiser’s newt, a newt species adapted to mountain spring-ponds in Iran. Genomic analysis suggests the existence of two highly differentiated clades North and South of the Dez River. Genetic variation between the two clades (76.62%) was much greater than within clades (16.25%), suggesting that the Dez River prevented gene flow. River disconnectivity, followed by geographic distance, contributed mostly to genetic differentiation between populations. Environmental niche and landscape resistance had no significant influence. Though a significant difference between climatic niches occupied by each clade at the landscape-scale, habitat niches at the local-scale were equivalent. ‘Niche similarity analysis’ supported niche conservatism between the two clades despite the southward shift in the climatic niche of the Southern clade. Accordingly, populations of different clades may occupy different climatic niches within their ancestral niche. Our results indicate that the change of climatic conditions of geographically and genetically separated populations does not necessarily result in the shift of an ecological niche.