Flood risk assessment is an important tool for disaster warning and prevention. In this study, an integrated approach based on a D-number-improved analytic hierarchy process (D-AHP) and a self-organizing map (SOM) clustering algorithm are proposed for urban flooding risk assessment. The urban flood inundation model and geographic information system (GIS) technology were used to quantify the assessment indices of urban flood risk. The D-AHP approach was adopted to determine the weights of the indices, which effectively makes up for the shortcomings of the AHP in dealing with uncertain evaluation information (such as fuzzy and incomplete information). In addition, the SOM clustering algorithm was applied to determine the flood risk level. It is a data-driven approach that avoids the subjective determination of a flood risk classification threshold. The proposed approach for flood risk assessment was implemented in Zhengzhou, China. The flood risk was classified into five levels: highest risk, higher risk, medium risk, lower risk, and the lowest risk. The proportion of the highest risk areas was 9.86%; such areas were mainly distributed in the central and eastern parts of the Jinshui District, the eastern part of the Huiji District, and the northeastern part of the Guancheng District, where there were low terrain and serious waterlogging. The higher risk areas accounted for 24.26% of the study area, and were mainly distributed in the western and southern parts of the Jinshui District, the southern part of the Huiji District, the middle and eastern parts of the Zhongyuan District, the northeastern part of the Erqi District, and the northwestern part of the Guancheng District, which consisted of economically developed areas of dense population and buildings, matching well with historical flooding events. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach, traditional approaches for risk assessment were compared. The comparison indicated that the proposed approach is more reasonable and accurate than the traditional approaches. This study showed the potential of a novel approach to flood risk assessment. The results can provide a reference for urban flood management and disaster reduction in the study area.

The public health risk caused by urban floods is a global concern. Flood risks are amplified by the interaction of rainfall and storm tides in coastal cities. In this study, we investigate the flood risks of rainfall and storm tides coupling statistical and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the influence of different parameter estimation methods and bivariate return periods (RPs) on flood risks in the coastal city. The statistical model is used to obtain the bivariate design of rainfall and storm tides with the integration of copula function, most-likely weight function and Monte Carlo simulation method. The bivariate designs are adopted as the input boundaries for the hydrodynamic model established by Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM), and the flood risk is evaluated by the hydrodynamic model. Subsequently, the influence of different parameter estimation approaches (that is, parametric and non-parametric) and bivariate RPs (that is, co-occurrence RP, joint RP, and Kendall RP) on bivariate designs and flood risks are investigated. With Haikou coastal city in China as the case study, the results show that: (1) Gumbel copula is the best function to describe the correlation structure between rainfall and storm tides for the parametric and non-parametric approaches, and the non-parametric approach is a better fit for the observed data; (2) when the Kendall RP is large (more than 100 years), the flood risk is underestimated with an average of 17% by the non-parametric estimation, and the parametric estimation approach is recommended as it is considered the most unfavorable scenario; (3) the types of bivariate RP have the important impact on the flood risk. When there is no specific application need, the Kendall RP can be adopted as the bivariate design standard of flooding facilities since it can describe the dangerous areas more accurately for multivariate scenario. The results can provide references for reasonable flood risk assessment and flooding facility design in coastal cities.