Joseph Ward

Dr. Joseph Ward


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

15Years (2012-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 October 2021 in The Lancet
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
JWJoseph Ward
Joseph Ward
PAPeter S Azzopardi
Peter S Azzopardi
KFKate Louise Francis
Kate Louise Francis
JSJohn S Santelli
John S Santelli
VSVegard Skirbekk
Vegard Skirbekk
RVRussell M Viner
Russell M Viner
Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

17 December 2020 in Archives of Disease in Childhood
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
RVRussell M Viner
Russell M Viner
JWJoseph Ward
Joseph Ward
LHLee D Hudson
Lee D Hudson
MAMelissa Ashe
Melissa Ashe
SPSanjay Valabh Patel
Sanjay Valabh Patel
EWElizabeth Whittaker
Elizabeth Whittaker
Objective To undertake a systematic review of reviews of the prevalence of symptoms and signs of COVID-19 in those aged under 20 years. Design Narrative systematic review of reviews. PubMed, medRxiv, Europe PMC and COVID-19 Living Evidence Database were searched on 9 October 2020. Setting All settings, including hospitalised and community settings. Patients Children and young people (CYP) under age 20 years with laboratory-proven COVID-19. Study review, data extraction and quality Potentially eligible articles were reviewed on title and abstract by one reviewer. Quality was assessed using the modified AMSTARS criteria and data were extracted from included studies by two reviewers. Main outcome measures Prevalence of symptoms and signs of COVID-19. Results 1325 studies were identified and 18 reviews were included. Eight were high quality, 7 medium and 3 low quality. All reviews were dominated by studies of hospitalised children. The proportion of asymptomatic CYP ranged from 14.6% to 42%. Fever and cough were the the most common symptoms; proportions with fever ranged from 46% to 64.2% and with cough from 32% to 55.9%. All other symptoms or signs including rhinorrhoea, sore throat, headache, fatigue/myalgia and gastrointestinal symptoms including diarrhoea and vomiting were infrequent, occurring in less than 10%–20%. Conclusions Fever and cough are the most common symptoms in CYP with COVID-19, with other symptoms infrequent. Further research on symptoms in community samples are needed to inform pragmatic identification and testing programmes for CYP.

11 November 2021 in Nature Medicine
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
PDF file
CSClare Smith
Clare Smith
DODavid Odd
David Odd
RHRachel Harwood
Rachel Harwood
JWJoseph Ward
Joseph Ward
MLMike Linney
Mike Linney
LFLorna Fraser
Lorna Fraser


11 May 2017 in BMC Public Health
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
JWJoseph Ward
Joseph Ward
RVRussell M. Viner
Russell M. Viner
Income inequality and national wealth are strong determinants for health, but few studies have systematically investigated their influence on mortality across the early life-course, particularly outside the high-income world. We performed cross-sectional regression analyses of the relationship between income inequality (national Gini coefficient) and national wealth (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged over previous decade), and all-cause and grouped cause national mortality rate amongst infants, 1–4, 5–9, 10–14, 15–19 and 20–24 year olds in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) in 2012. Gini models were adjusted for GDP. Data were available for 103 (79%) countries. Gini was positively associated with increased all-cause and communicable disease mortality in both sexes across all age groups, after adjusting for national wealth. Gini was only positively associated with increased injury mortality amongst infants and 20–24 year olds, and increased non-communicable disease mortality amongst 20–24 year old females. The strength of these associations tended to increase during adolescence. Increasing GDP was negatively associated with all-cause, communicable and non-communicable disease mortality in males and females across all age groups. GDP was also associated with decreased injury mortality in all age groups except 15–19 year old females, and 15–24 year old males. GDP became a weaker predictor of mortality during adolescence. Policies to reduce income inequality, rather than prioritising economic growth at all costs, may be needed to improve adolescent mortality in low and middle-income countries, a key development priority.

24 May 2020 in medRxiv
Verified
Preprint
Open access
PDF file
RVRussell M. Viner
Russell M. Viner
OMOliver T. Mytton
Oliver T. Mytton
CBChris Bonell
Chris Bonell
GMG.J. Melendez-Torres
G.J. Melendez-Torres
JWJoseph Ward
Joseph Ward
RERosalind M. Eggo
Rosalind M. Eggo
Importance: The degree to which children and young people are infected by and transmit the SARS-CoV-2 virus is unclear. The role of children and young people in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on susceptibility, symptoms, viral load, social contact patterns and behaviour. Objective: We undertook a rapid systematic review to address the question “What is the susceptibility to and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children and adolescents compared with adults?” Data sources: We searched PubMed and medRxiv up to 28 July 2020 and identified 13,926 studies, with additional studies identified through handsearching of cited references and professional contacts. Study Selection: We included studies which provided data on the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in children and young people (<20 years) compared with adults derived from contact-tracing or population-screening. We excluded single household studies. Data extraction and Synthesis: We followed PRISMA guidelines for abstracting data, independently by 2 reviewers. Quality was assessed using a critical appraisal checklist for prevalence studies. Random effects meta-analysis was undertaken. Main Outcomes: Secondary infection rate (contact-tracing studies) or prevalence or seroprevalence (population-screening studies) amongst children and young people compared with adults. Results: 32 studies met inclusion criteria; 18 contact-tracing and 14 population-screening. The pooled odds ratio of being an infected contact in children compared with adults was 0.56 (0.37, 0.85) with substantial heterogeneity (95%). Three school contact tracing studies found minimal transmission by child or teacher index cases. Findings from population-screening studies were heterogenous and were not suitable for meta-analysis. The majority of studies were consistent with lower seroprevalence in children compared with adults, although seroprevalence in adolescents appeared similar to adults. Conclusions: There is preliminary evidence that children and young people have lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, with a 43% lower odds of being an infected contact. There is weak evidence that children and young people play a lesser role in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a population level. Our study provides no information on the infectivity of children. Key points: Question: What is the evidence on the susceptibility and transmission of children and young people to SARS-CoV-2 in comparison with adults? Findings: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, children and young people under 18-20 years had an 435 lower odds of secondary infection of with SARS-CoV-2 compared to adults 20 years plus, a significant difference. This finding was most marked in children under 12-14 years. Data were insufficient to conclude whether transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children is lower than by adults. Meaning: We found preliminary evidence that children have a lower susceptibility for SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with adults, although data for adolescents is less clear. The role that children and young people play in transmission of this pandemic remains unclear.