The surface subsidence caused by mining influences the mine environment and construction safety. In this paper, strata movement and surface subsidence were combined. Based on elasticity and Winkler theory, a prediction method of surface subsidence was established with the primary key stratum as the research object. Using the Tingnan Coal Mine as an example, the mining subsidence of the second panel was predicted. Comparing the predicted results with the measured results, the causes of errors were analyzed and the field of application of the model was clarified. Besides, the geological and mining factors affecting surface subsidence were also analyzed. The results show that the mining subsidence is the surface manifestation of the strata movement. Surface subsidence is affected by the mining area, load, and flexural rigidity of the primary key stratum, foundation modulus of the goaf, and the rock mass. The research results have significance for the planning of the coal resources and the prevention of geological disasters.