On the 4 November 2011 a flash flood event hit the area of Genoa with dramatic consequences. Such an event represents, from the meteorological and hydrological perspective, a paradigm of flash floods in the Mediterranean environment. The hydro-meteorological probabilistic forecasting system for small and medium size catchments in use at the Civil Protection Centre of Liguria region exhibited excellent performances for the event, by predicting, 24–48 h in advance, the potential level of risk associated with the forecast. It greatly helped the decision makers in issuing a timely and correct alert. In this work we present the operational outputs of the system provided during the Liguria events and the post event hydrological modelling analysis that has been carried out accounting also for the crowd sourcing information and data. We discuss the benefit of the implemented probabilistic systems for decision-making under uncertainty, highlighting how, in this case, the multi-catchment approach used for predicting floods in small basins has been crucial.

Full process description and distributed hydrological models are very useful tools in hydrology as they can be applied in different contexts and for a wide range of aims such as flood and drought forecasting, water management, and prediction of impact on the hydrologic cycle due to natural and human-induced changes. Since they must mimic a variety of physical processes, they can be very complex and with a high degree of parameterization. This complexity can be increased by necessity of augmenting the number of observable state variables in order to improve model validation or to allow data assimilation. In this work a model, aiming at balancing the need to reproduce the physical processes with the practical goal of avoiding over-parameterization, is presented. The model is designed to be implemented in different contexts with a special focus on data-scarce environments, e.g. with no streamflow data. All the main hydrological phenomena are modelled in a distributed way. Mass and energy balance are solved explicitly. Land surface temperature (LST), which is particularly suited to being extensively observed and assimilated, is an explicit state variable. A performance evaluation, based on both traditional and satellite derived data, is presented with a specific reference to the application in an Italian catchment. The model has been firstly calibrated and validated following a standard approach based on streamflow data. The capability of the model in reproducing both the streamflow measurements and the land surface temperature from satellites has been investigated. The model has been then calibrated using satellite data and geomorphologic characteristics of the basin in order to test its application on a basin where standard hydrologic observations (e.g. streamflow data) are not available. The results have been compared with those obtained by the standard calibration strategy based on streamflow data.

Hydrological monitoring systems relying on radar data and distributed hydrological models are now feasible at large-scale and represent effective early warning systems for flash floods. Here we describe a system that allows hydrological occurrences in terms of streamflow at a national scale to be monitored. We then evaluate its operational application in Italy, a country characterized by various climatic conditions and topographic features. The proposed system exploits a modified conditional merging (MCM) algorithm to generate rainfall estimates by blending data from national radar and rain-gauge networks. Then, we use the merged rainfall fields as input for the distributed and continuous hydrological model, Continuum, to obtain real-time streamflow predictions. We assess its performance in terms of rainfall estimates from MCM, using cross-validation and comparison with a conditional merging technique at an event-scale. We also assess its performance against rainfall fields from ground-based data at catchment-scale. We further evaluate the performance of the hydrological system in terms of streamflow against observed data (relative error on high flows less than 25% and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency greater than 0.5 for 72% and 46% of the calibrated study sections, respectively). These results, therefore, confirm the suitability of such an approach, even at national scale, over a wide range of catchment types, climates, and hydrometeorological regimes, and for operational purposes.

Polarimetric radars provide measurements that describe the shape and dimensions of hydrometeors and are unaffected by calibration, attenuation, and the presence of ice. These measurements can potentially lead to a more detailed description of hydrometeors and to an improvement in quantitative rainfall rate estimation. The authors present an algorithm that exploits polarimetric measures for rain-rate estimation and investigate its application in a real-time framework by using measurements from the C-band polarimetric radar at Monte Settepani in Savona, Italy. It is based on a flowchart decision tree that allows the use of the best rain-rate retrieval algorithm, depending on the value of polarimetric variables. The methodology was applied to a real-time framework for more than a year, and the results were presented for all the significant events observed during the test period. To evaluate the performance of the algorithm, a comparison was made with rain gauge observation from a dense regional netw... Abstract Polarimetric radars provide measurements that describe the shape and dimensions of hydrometeors and are unaffected by calibration, attenuation, and the presence of ice. These measurements can potentially lead to a more detailed description of hydrometeors and to an improvement in quantitative rainfall rate estimation. The authors present an algorithm that exploits polarimetric measures for rain-rate estimation and investigate its application in a real-time framework by using measurements from the C-band polarimetric radar at Monte Settepani in Savona, Italy. It is based on a flowchart decision tree that allows the use of the best rain-rate retrieval algorithm, depending on the value of polarimetric variables. The methodology was applied to a real-time framework for more than a year, and the results were presented for all the significant events observed during the test period. To evaluate the performance of the algorithm, a comparison was made with rain gauge observation from a dense regional netw...

Forecasting river discharge is a very important issue for the prediction and monitoring of ground effects related to severe precipitation events. The meteorological forecast systems are unable to predict precipitation on small spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) scales. For these reasons the issuing of reliable flood forecasts is not feasible in those regions where the basin's response to rainfall events is very fast and can generate flash floods. This problem can be tackled by using rainfall nowcasting techniques based on radar observations coupled with hydrological modeling. These procedures allow the forecasting of future streamflow with a few hours' notice. However, to account for the short-term uncertainties in the evolution of fine scale precipitation field, a probabilistic approach to rainfall nowcasting is needed. These uncertainties are then propagated from rainfall to runoff through a distributed hydrological model producing a set of equi-probable discharge scenarios to be used for the flood nowcasting with time horizons of a few hours. Such a hydrological nowcasting system is presented here and applied to some case studies. A first evaluation of its applicability in an operational context is provided and the opportunity of using the results quantitatively is discussed.

The forecast of flash floods is sometimes impossible. In the last two decades, Numerical Weather Prediction Systems have become increasingly reliable with significant improvements in terms of quantitative precipitation forecasts. However, despite the application of modern probabilistic hydrometeorological chains, some significant flood events remain unpredicted. This was also the case with an event that occurred on the 8th and 9th of June, 2011 in the eastern part of the Liguria Region, Italy. This event affected in particular the Entella basin, a small watershed that flows into the Mediterranean Sea. The application of a hydrological nowcasting chain as a tool for predicting flash floods in small basins with an anticipation time of a few hours (2–5) is presented here. This work investigated the ‘behaviour’ of the chain in the cited event as well as in other verification cases and showed how the chain could be exploited for operational purposes. The results were encouraging. However, the analysis provided evidence that the difficulties in using operational hydrometeorological tools are not always and only dependent on the performance of such systems, but also on the way the results are made available to forecasters and on the efficiency of communication with the civil protection officials.