This work on colorectal cancer shows that secondary mutations in KRAS that confer resistance to panitumumab, an anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody, are already present when antibody treatment begins; the apparent inevitability of resistance suggests that combinations of drugs targeting at least two different oncogenic pathway will be needed for treatment. Antibodies targeting epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) have become an established treatment for colorectal cancer, but they are contraindicated in patients carrying mutations in the KRAS oncogene. Drug resistance can also arise in initially responsive patients, and two papers in this issue of Nature present unequivocal evidence that mutations in KRAS underlie acquired resistance to anti-EGFR antibodies in many patients and that KRAS mutations can be detected in the serum of patients before the clinical emergence of resistance and relapse. Misale et al. show in cell-line models that KRAS mutations can confer resistance to cetuximab. And in colorectal cancer patients treated with cetuximab or panitumumab, resistance is associated with KRAS mutations selected from pre-existing subclones or acquired during treatment. Diaz et al. also find KRAS mutations accumulating in patients becoming resistant to panitumumab. Their mathematical models suggest that KRAS mutations pre-existed in tumour cells before therapy, which may explain why clinical recurrence is usually seen after about six months of treatment, by which time the resistant subpopulations of tumour cells with KRAS mutations has expanded. The apparent inevitability of resistance suggests that combinations of drugs targeting more than one oncogenic pathway will be needed if resistance is to be avoided. Colorectal tumours that are wild type for KRAS are often sensitive to EGFR blockade, but almost always develop resistance within several months of initiating therapy1,2. The mechanisms underlying this acquired resistance to anti-EGFR antibodies are largely unknown. This situation is in marked contrast to that of small-molecule targeted agents, such as inhibitors of ABL, EGFR, BRAF and MEK, in which mutations in the genes encoding the protein targets render the tumours resistant to the effects of the drugs3,4,5,6. The simplest hypothesis to account for the development of resistance to EGFR blockade is that rare cells with KRAS mutations pre-exist at low levels in tumours with ostensibly wild-type KRAS genes. Although this hypothesis would seem readily testable, there is no evidence in pre-clinical models to support it, nor is there data from patients. To test this hypothesis, we determined whether mutant KRAS DNA could be detected in the circulation of 28 patients receiving monotherapy with panitumumab, a therapeutic anti-EGFR antibody. We found that 9 out of 24 (38%) patients whose tumours were initially KRAS wild type developed detectable mutations in KRAS in their sera, three of which developed multiple different KRAS mutations. The appearance of these mutations was very consistent, generally occurring between 5 and 6 months following treatment. Mathematical modelling indicated that the mutations were present in expanded subclones before the initiation of panitumumab treatment. These results suggest that the emergence of KRAS mutations is a mediator of acquired resistance to EGFR blockade and that these mutations can be detected in a non-invasive manner. They explain why solid tumours develop resistance to targeted therapies in a highly reproducible fashion.

In solid tumors, targeted treatments can lead to dramatic regressions, but responses are often short-lived because resistant cancer cells arise. The major strategy proposed for overcoming resistance is combination therapy. We present a mathematical model describing the evolutionary dynamics of lesions in response to treatment. We first studied 20 melanoma patients receiving vemurafenib. We then applied our model to an independent set of pancreatic, colorectal, and melanoma cancer patients with metastatic disease. We find that dual therapy results in long-term disease control for most patients, if there are no single mutations that cause cross-resistance to both drugs; in patients with large disease burden, triple therapy is needed. We also find that simultaneous therapy with two drugs is much more effective than sequential therapy. Our results provide realistic expectations for the efficacy of new drug combinations and inform the design of trials for new cancer therapeutics.

The emergence of cooperation is a central question in evolutionary biology. Microorganisms often cooperate by producing a chemical resource (a public good) that benefits other cells. The sharing of public goods depends on their diffusion through space. Previous theory suggests that spatial structure can promote evolution of cooperation, but the diffusion of public goods introduces new phenomena that must be modeled explicitly. We develop an approach where colony geometry and public good diffusion are described by graphs. We find that the success of cooperation depends on a simple relation between the benefits and costs of the public good, the amount retained by a producer, and the average amount retained by each of the producer’s neighbors. These quantities are derived as analytic functions of the graph topology and diffusion rate. In general, cooperation is favored for small diffusion rates, low colony dimensionality, and small rates of decay of the public good.

Protecting biodiversity involves preserving the maximum number and abundance of species while giving special attention to species with unique genetic or morphological characteristics. In balancing different priorities, conservation policymakers may consider quantitative measures that compare diversity across ecological communities. To serve this purpose, a measure should increase or decrease with changes in community composition in a way that reflects what is valued, including species richness, evenness, and distinctness. However, counterintuitively, studies have shown that established indices, including those that emphasize average interspecies phylogenetic distance, may increase with the elimination of species. We introduce a new diversity index, the phylogenetic entropy, which generalizes in a natural way the Shannon index to incorporate species relatedness. Phylogenetic entropy favors communities in which highly distinct species are more abundant, but it does not advocate decreasing any species proportion below a community structure-dependent threshold. We contrast the behavior of multiple indices on a community of phyllostomid bats in the Selva Lacandona. The optimal genus distribution for phylogenetic entropy populates all genera in a linear relationship to their total phylogenetic distance to other genera. Two other indices favor eliminating 12 out of the 23 genera.