Disease modeling involves the use of mathematical functions to describe quantitatively the time course of disease progression. In order to characterize the natural progression of disease, these models generally incorporate longitudinal data for some biomarker(s) of disease severity or can incorporate more direct measures of disease severity. Disease models are also often linked to pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic models so that the influence of drug treatment on disease progression can be quantified and evaluated. Regulatory agencies have embraced disease progression models as powerful tools that can be used to improve drug development productivity. This article provides a brief overview of key concepts in disease progression modeling followed by illustrative examples from models for Alzheimer’s disease. Finally, recent novel applications in which disease progression models have been linked to cost-effectiveness analysis and genomic analysis are described.

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of cancer-related death. It is a highly vascular tumour with multiple angiogenic factors, most importantly vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), involved in HCC progression. Tivozanib is an oral inhibitor of VEGFR-1/2/3 with promising activity against HCC in vivo.Methods: We conducted a phase 1b/2 study of tivozanib in patients with advanced HCC. The safety, dosing, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and preliminary antineoplastic efficacy of tivozanib were evaluated.Results: Twenty-seven patients received at least one dose of tivozanib. Using a 3+3 design, the recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D) of tivozanib was determined to be 1 mg per os once daily, 21 days on–7 days off. The median progression-free and overall survival were 24 weeks and 9 months, respectively, for patients treated at RP2D. The overall response rate was 21%. Treatment was well tolerated. A significant decrease in soluble plasma VEGFR-2 was noted, assuring adequate target engagement.Conclusions: Although this study did not proceed to stage 2, there was an early efficacy signal with a very favourable toxicity profile. A phase 1/2 trial of tivozanib in combination with durvalumab is currently underway.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01835223, registered on 15 April 2013.