The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals.

Core Ideas: POXC and mineralizable C were evaluated across diverse agroecosystems. The two are related but differentially influenced by management practices. POXC better reflected SOM stabilizing practices. Mineralizable C reflected SOM mineralizing practices. Both predicted agronomic performance better than other soil C fractions. Permanganate‐oxidizable C (POXC) and mineralizable C (as determined by short‐term aerobic incubation of rewetted soil) are measures of active organic matter that may provide early indication of soil C stabilization and mineralization processes. To date, the relationship between these two promising active organic matter tests has not been comprehensively evaluated, and little is known about their functional role in the soil ecosystem. Here, we examined the relationship between POXC and mineralizable C across a wide range of soil types, management histories, and geographic locations across the United States (13 studies, 76 total sites; n = 1071) and the ability of POXC and mineralizable C to predict crop yield and total aboveground biomass. Results from this comparative analysis showed that POXC and mineralizable C are related (r ² = 0.15–0.80) but that the relationship was differentially influenced by management practices. Overall, POXC better reflected practices that promote organic matter accumulation or stabilization and therefore can be a useful indicator of long‐term soil C sequestration. Conversely, mineralizable C better reflected practices that promote organic matter mineralization and therefore can be a useful indicator of short‐term soil nutrient availability. Our results also show that both mineralizable C and POXC were better predictors of corn (Zea mays L.) grain yield, aboveground biomass, and tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) fruit yield than other soil C fractions evaluated here. Thus, the integrated use of POXC and mineralizable C can provide a complementary framework to assess the relative dynamics of soil C stabilization and nutrient mineralization functions in agroecosystems.

Increasing the quantity and quality of plant biomass production in space and time can improve the capacity of agroecosystems to capture and store atmospheric carbon (C) in the soil. Cover cropping is a key practice to increase system net primary productivity (NPP) and increase the quantity of high‐quality plant residues available for integration into soil organic matter (SOM). Cover crop management and local environmental conditions, however, influence the magnitude of soil C stock change. Here, we used a comprehensive meta‐analysis approach to quantify the effect of cover crops on soil C stocks from the 0–30 cm soil depth in temperate climates and to identify key management and ecological factors that impact variation in this response. A total of 40 publications with 181 observations were included in the meta‐analysis representing six countries across three different continents. Overall, cover crops had a strong positive effect on soil C stocks (P < 0.0001) leading to a 12% increase, averaging 1.11 Mg C/ha more soil C relative to a no cover crop control. The strongest predictors of SOC response to cover cropping were planting and termination date (i.e., growing window), annual cover crop biomass production, and soil clay content. Cover crops planted as continuous cover or autumn planted and terminated led to 20–30% greater total soil C stocks relative to other cover crop growing windows. Likewise, high annual cover crop biomass production (>7 Mg·ha⁻¹·yr⁻¹) resulted in 30% higher total soil C stocks than lower levels of biomass production. Managing for greater NPP by improving synchronization in cover crop growing windows and climate will enhance the capacity of this practice to drawdown carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere across agroecosystems. The integration of growing window (potentially as a proxy for biomass growth), climate, and soil factors in decision‐support tools are relevant for improving the quantification of soil C stock change under cover crops, particularly with the expansion of terrestrial soil C markets.